Videos by OutKick
Phillies vs. Braves, 1:35 ET
A few days ago, I put out a play on the Guardians to win on the run line. I provided my justification for it and in it acknowledged that the safer action was the straight moneyline. Of course, the run line misses, but the Guardians win the game. Yesterday, we play the Sox run line, and then, boom we get Johnny Cueto scratched and they win but don’t cover. I hope some of you accepted the juice and followed. I just couldn’t. Still, yesterday, we took the -135 and ended up losing the bet which is why I try to avoid those high juice games.
We head back to the same matchup, this time we have Bailey Falter facing Spencer Strider. Starting with Falter, we see a pleasant surprise in the Phillies rotation. The Phillies have won his last six starts and nine of his last ten. Over that span of 10 games, Falter has tossed 48.2 innings and allowed 19 runs. If you break it down further, over his last 29.2 innings, he’s allowed just eight earned runs. He is really settling into the rotation nicely. He has yet to face Atlanta on the season so far, but against the rest of the NL East, he has been fairly sharp. There was on exception against the Mets, but even that was mostly unearned runs scoring.
Spencer Strider has been outstanding for the Braves, and I say that even after he burned me on my last two-unit play, which I contend was still a great spot for the Braves. It wasn’t even a bad start for Strider, he went five innings struck out nine, and allowed just two earned runs. The Braves lost the game 3-2 though as they couldn’t muster any offense. Strider has been, well, in stride his last five outings and has performed admirably in almost every game this season. He also finds a ton of comfort pitching in Atlanta and has a 2.23 ERA that covers nine starts and 15 appearances. He’s had two starts against the Phillies (three appearances) and has held them to two earned runs over 15.1 innings.
I wouldn’t just auto-bet Strider, but he certainly seems to be the right side in this one. I like what I’m seeing from Falter and wouldn’t be surprised to see an under 8 runs in this game. I think that’s the best way to play it because the price on Strider is getting a little high.
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