Videos by OutKick
Hopefully, you didn’t fade me yesterday, as I suggested because we ended up with a profitable 2-1 day. Now we are down to a shorter slate as there are only eight games going on today. Still, we have eight games of opportunity.
I’ve been on the Merrill Kelly train for quite some time now. I’m not getting off of it now that he gets to face the Pirates. Kelly has been surprisingly good this season, I guess I never gave him credit because the last time he was this successful was in 2020, but that was just a five-start season for him. This year, he has maintained it for 22 starts. He did have a five-inning start against them in Pittsburgh and allowed two earned runs. In his last five starts, his opponents haven’t scored more than three runs in the game. In fact, including that Pittsburgh start, he’s had 12 starts and only four of them have seen the opponent score over 3 runs.
JT Brubaker is throwing tonight for the Pirates. He has not been as good as Kelly. In fact, he has a 4.49 ERA for the season, but tonight is a situation where he tends to perform a bit better. He has a 3.90 road ERA, and he has a 3.86 night game ERA. He was rocked in his one start against the Diamondbacks earlier in the season, he went four innings and allowed three home runs with a total of five earned runs. But, that start was at home where he has been very bad. I don’t expect him to win this game, but I think he can keep the Pirates in it.
I’ll play the game under 8 runs. I initially leaned Pirates under 3.5, but not worth the price and I don’t expect a huge game from the Diamondbacks.