There is no way the Houston Astros go down 0-2 at home to the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2022 World Series, right?
Meh, why can’t they?
Philadelphia climbed out of a 5-run deficit to win Game 1, 6-5, in extra innings thanks to a top-of-the-10th-inning home run by Phillies C J.T. Realmuto.
The first pitch for Game 2 of the World Series at Minute Maid Park in Houston is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET. Game 2 broadcasts on FOX.
The Phillies have the better starter on the mound Saturday. From the top down these rosters are even and the Astros’ bullpen depth is a lot less meaningful in a best-of-seven series.
Also, Philly has the better Game 2 starter and Houston was a bigger favorite when it lost to the Washington Nationals in the 2019 World Series.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline (ML): PHILLIES (+125), Astros (-145)
- Run Line (RL): Phillies +1.5 (-180), Astros -1.5 (+155)
- Total (O/U) — 7 — O: -105, U: -115
Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA in the regular season) is their Game 2 starter. Wheeler is 1-1 in four 2022 postseason outings.
However, the Phillies are 3-1 in those games and Wheeler has a 1.78 ERA, a 25/3 K/BB rate, and 1 HR allowed with four quality starts.
Houston sends out LHP Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA in the regular season) to start Game 2. Valdez is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in these playoffs. The Astros won both of his starts vs. the Mariners in the ALDS and the Yankees in the ALCS.
But, Valdez got rocked in the 2021 World Series by the Braves. Houston split his two starts in last year’s Fall Classic. Valdez gave up 10 ER in 4 2/3 IP with 4 HRs and a 3/3 K/BB rate.
Even though Valdez has five more wins, Wheeler is the better pitcher. Wheeler ranks higher than Valdez in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, K%, BB%, and chase rate, per Statcast.
It was always my plan to back the Phillies in World Series games Aaron Nola and Wheeler start. I feel better about this angle considering how well the Phillies hit left-handed pitching.
Philly vs. lefties >>> Houston vs. righties
The Phillies average more runs per nine against left-handed pitching than the Astros against right-handed pitching (4.84-4.42), according to Covers.com.
Furthermore, Philadelphia has a better wRC+ (115-107), wOBA (.335-.317), and hard-hit rate (31.7-29.5%) vs. lefties than Houston vs. righties, per FanGraphs.
Lastly, the Phillies have more than double the return on investment vs. lefty starters on teams with a winning record than the Astros vs. righty starters on winning teams (23.7-11.5%).
BET: Phillies (+125) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +120
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