Payday Plays for May 14th
It's Friday, which means for a lot of you, it is payday. What better way to spend your hard-earned cash than gambling on sports? Regardless of your favorite league, I will have a pick for each of the major sports that are playing today. Watching sports plus having money on the line makes any sport better. There are MLB, NHL, and NBA games playing, and the first league we will look at is the NHL.
Maple Leafs (-164) vs. Jets (+138) 8:00 p.m. ET
We don't have any other options for hockey, but I love this game. The puck line is Toronto -1.5 at +162. These teams have already secured playoff spots, with Toronto securing the 1st seed and Winnipeg the 3rd seed. But these teams are going into the playoffs with very different momentum. The Jets are 2-9 in their last eleven games and are 1-7 in their previous eight home games. The Maple Leafs, by comparison, are 7-0-2 in their last nine and have won by more than one goal in six of those games. The Jets have struggled all season, going against a team that is good on the road; they are 0-5 while facing a road team with a winning percentage that is greater than 60%. The Maple Leafs fall into this category, since they are 17-6-4 on the road this season.
It's not only in road and home stats that Toronto dominates Winnipeg. They are also the more dominant team. The Maple Leafs have scored 184 goals this year compared to the Jets, which have scored 166 goals. In the simple rating system, Toronto and Winnipeg aren't close. The Maple Leafs have an SRS of 0.64 compared to the Jets, who have a 0.21 SRS. The last time the Jets were able to beat the Maple Leafs in Winnipeg was in October of 2016. I see this 5-year streak extending as I'm picking Toronto to win this game. Not only do I see them winning, but I'm confident enough to take the puck line.
The pick: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+162)
Magic (+13.5) vs. 76ers (-13.5) 8:15 p.m. ET
The 76ers are the only team in this matchup that cares about the rest of the NBA season. The 76ers need to keep playing their starters since they are only one game ahead of Brooklyn for the No. 1 seed in the East. The Magic are looking forward to the lottery as they are 14th in the East but are only one game ahead of the Pistons for the worst team in the East. The Magic have thrown in the towel; they are missing nine players tonight and will have a bunch of G-Leaguers instead.
When looking at their records against the spread, Philadelphia is the better team. Their ATS record is 36-31-3, and when the 76ers are home favorites, they are 16-13 ATS. The Magic are 32-36-2 ATS, and as away underdogs, they are 15-15 ATS. Even though a 13.5 point spread is high, the Magic are used to getting blown out. Yesterday against the Hawks, they lost by 23, on May 9th, they lost to the Timberwolves by 32, and on May 5th, they lost to the Celtics by 36 points. Orlando is on par with the Rockets and Pistons for their skill level. When Philadelphia played both the Rockets and Pistons, they blew them out by an average of 17 points. This is a game where you try not to overthink it. The 76ers are bad, but they need to win. The Magic are terrible, and they have nothing to play for.
The pick: 76ers -13.5
Indians (-120) vs. Mariners (+102) 10:11 p.m. ET
If you read the Fade or Follow articles, you'll know that I loved the Indians last night, and they delivered. Plesac had a no-hitter going into the 8th inning and gave up 2 runs before handing the ball over to Cleveland's closers. The Indians extended the Mariners' losing streak to 5 games, and Seattle is 3-7. The Indians, who are red hot, have gone 9-1 in their last ten.
Chris Flexen is starting for Seattle tonight. So far in 2021, Flexen is 3-1 in six games with a 3.78 ERA and 1.410 WHIP. Aaron Civale is taking the mound for Cleveland. Civale can't lose this year, as he is 5-0 in seven games with a 2.91 ERA and 1.036 WHIP. Neither the Indians nor the Mariners have impressive offenses. Cleveland is 24th in runs, 30th in hits, and T16th in home runs, compared to Seattle, which is 20th in runs, 28th hits, and T14th home runs. It doesn't matter because all Civale and the Indians do lately is win.
The pick: Indians -120