Pay The Vig: Bet UNDER In Phillies-Astros World Series Game 6

The Philadelphia Phillies (2-3) head to Minute Maid Park Saturday with their season on the brink to play the Houston Astros (3-2) in Game 6 of the 2022 World Series. The 1st pitch is 8:03 p.m. ET and the game airs on FOX.

Philadelphia gives the ball to ace Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA during the regular season) and hopes to get a bounce-back performance. Wheeler gave up 3 ER in his first four pitches in a 5-2 Game 2 loss in Houston. He had 5 IP with 5 runs scored (4 ER) on 6 H, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 3 K.

Houston’s Game 6 starter is LHP Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA in the regular season) and he beat Wheeler in Game 2. Valdez struck out nine Phillies in 6 1/3 IP with 1 ER on 4 H and 3 BB.

My first instinct when handicapping Game 6 in a playoff series for any sport is to look at the total. Specifically, the UNDER.

“Scoring lowers as playoff series continues” is a fact for hockey, basketball, and baseball. Also, the sportsbooks making the Under in Phillies-Astros Game 6 more expensive despite the betting action going the other way is shady.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies (+130), Astros (-150)
  • Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-175), Astros -1.5 (+150)
  • Total (O/U) — 7 — O: +100, UNDER: -120

Cash and bets came in early on the Over because sportsbooks baited bettors with an even-money payout. A majority of the action is still on the Over but the oddsmakers haven’t moved the total. In fact, the Under remains the more expensive side.

It also makes sense people would be on the Over. Both lineups are loaded with sluggers and Wheeler sucked in his 1st visit to Houston in World Series.

Philadelphia Phillies Zack Wheeler on the hill during Game 2 of the 2022 World Series vs. the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston.
Philadelphia Phillies Zack Wheeler on the hill during Game 2 of the 2022 World Series vs. the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

However, the Astros’ 1st three batters hit doubles off Wheeler in his first four pitches in Game 2. Wheeler got settled in though and faced as many hitters as Valdez (24).

I like Wheeler to bounce back in Game 2 because he’s a stud. Since 2021, Wheeler sits in the top quarter of MLB in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and chase rate.

Valdez on the other hand is on a heater and had an underrated regular season. He’s won two straight playoff games with a 1.42 ERA (1.53 FIP) in three postseason starts.

Furthermore, Valdez had a stretch of 25 “quality starts” (six or more innings pitched with three or fewer earned runs allowed) from April 25th to September 18th.

For the record, I lean to the Phillies extending the World Series to Game 7. The plus-money payout for Philadelphia’s ML is enticing and I give Wheeler the edge over Valdez.

But, these teams are 2-5-1 O/U in their 1st eight meetings in 2022, and Game 6 of the World Series will go Under the total too.

BET: UNDER 7 (-120) in Phillies-Astros at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to 6.5 (-120)

Bet Slip with the "Under" from DraftKings Sportsbook for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros as of Saturday, November 5th, 8:45 a.m. ET.
Bet Slip with the “Under” from DraftKings Sportsbook for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros as of Saturday, November 5th, 8:45 a.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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