Padres Take Down Dodgers Tuesday In Coin-Flip Game

Both the Los Angeles Dodgers (106-47) and San Diego Padres (85-68) are rolling as they begin a 3-game regular-season series finale Tuesday at Petco Park.

Each is 7-3 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games and has won back-to-back games entering this series.

But, the Dodgers have dominated this series in 2022: L.A. is 12-4 SU vs. San Diego with a +59 run differential (100-49).

The Dodgers already clinched the NL West and 1-seed for the NL postseason so they don’t have much to play for.

The Padres are 1.5 games ahead of the 3rd NL wild card seed, the Philadelphia Phillies, and 3 games ahead of the first team out, the Milwaukee Brewers.

Motivation and quirky line movement in the betting market are two of my handicapping angles behind a BET on the SAN DIEGO PADRES (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Deets (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers (-110), PADRES (-110)
  • Run Lins: Dodgers -1.5 (+150), Padres +1.5 (-175)
  • Total (O/U) — 8 — O: +100, U: -120
Padres’ Blake Snell at PETCO Park in San Diego. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

The Padres need this game more so than the Dodgers. However, there’s “reverse line movement” headed toward San Diego in the betting market.

Per VSIN, roughly 80% of the action at the time of publishing is on L.A.’s ML. Yet the Padres have climbed from +110 home underdogs up to an essential coin-flip with the Dodgers.

It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper. Typically, oddsmakers adjust the lines according to their liability. But, the House lowering L.A.’s ML may be a “trap”.

Also, the sketchy line movement flies in the face of the starting pitching matchup, which favors the Dodgers, on paper.

L.A. LHP Tyler Anderson (15-4, 2.42 ERA) takes the mound for the Dodgers while San Diego starts LHP Blake Snell (8-9, 3.62 ERA) Tuesday.

Anderson has much better basic pitching numbers than Snell but when looking under the hood you’ll see Snell’s numbers are misleading.

Snell’s expected ERA, FIP and xFIP are all lower than his ERA, according to FanGraphs. In fact, Snell’s FIP (3.40-2.77) and xFIP (4.24-3.15) are both better than Anderson’s.

He has a better K-BB rate on the season (22.7-13.7%) and a higher K-rate vs. the Dodgers than Anderson does vs. the Padres (30.5-18.4%), per Statcast.

Finally, the Padres are 23-22 as underdogs and have a better record (13-3) than the Dodgers (11-4) following a rest day.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the SAN DIEGO PADRES (-110).

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Sept. 27 at 10:40 a.m. ET


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Written by Geoff Clark

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