Padres Pull Off Upset Hosting White Sox, Cease Saturday

The Chicago White Sox (78-79) send their ace out Saturday for the 2nd of their 3-game interleague series at the San Diego Padres (86-71). Chicago won the series opener 3-1 Friday for its 2nd consecutive victory and extended San Diego’s losing skid to 3 games.

The Padres need this game like blood and are just 1.5 games in front of the Philadelphia Phillies for the final NL wild-card berth. The White Sox are eliminated and looks like they have senioritis. Chicago lost 8 straight from Sept. 20-28 prior to its current 2-game winning streak.

We are getting a cheap price for the Padres at home because White Sox’s starter Saturday — RHP Dylan Cease (14-7, 2.06 ERA) — is one of the best in the biz. While Padres starting RHP Mike Clevinger (6-7, 4.49 ERA) is struggling down the stretch of the regular season.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): White Sox (-115), PADRES (-105)
  • Run Line: White Sox -1.5 (+150), Padres +1.5 (-175)
  • Total (O/U) — 7 — O: -120, U: +100

BET: Padres (-105) ML, all the way up to -120

(Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

Cease is a beast and has much better form entering Saturday than Clevinger. He has a 1.99 ERA over his last 7 starts and Clevinger has a sky-high 6.35 ERA in his last 7 starts. But, the White Sox’s lineup has mailed it in over the past couple of weeks.

Chicago hasn’t scored more than 4 runs in the last 9 games and is terrible vs. right-handed pitching. Per FanGraphs, the White Sox are 26th in wRC+, 23rd in wOBA, 28th in BB/K rate and 29th in ISO against righties.

Also, Clevinger has pitched well against bad teams. The Padres are 11-3 when Clevinger faces teams with a losing record. San Diego has a +2.3 margin of victory and +30.0% return on investment in those games.

Finally, we’re fading a betting market that’s blindly backing the better starter. Per Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the money at the time of publishing is on Chicago’s ML. But, with the Padres, we are getting a more motivated team with a better bullpen and a more potent lineup.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the SAN DIEGO PADRES (-115).

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Oct. 1 at 2:30 p.m. ET

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Written by Geoff Clark

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