Padres Parlay is the Play

Padres vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

The Padres should make the playoffs. Without any real disaster or collapse, they should find themselves as a wild card team and be ready. If they are going to make any progress, they need to find some consistency with their starting pitching. They need today’s starter, Blake Snell to find his stuff regularly, or they will just be the footnote on someone else’s path to the trophy.

As mentioned, Snell is taking the ball today against the Diamondbacks. This is one of the best situations for him to succeed this season, a night and road starts. In road starts, he has a 3.38 ERA, a full run lower than the home ERA. He also is two runs lower during night starts than he is during day starts. For what it is worth, he also had a great start against the Diamondbacks this year, going six innings and allowing just four hits and one earned run. He did have a really nice July and August. Even his first start this month (that was the Diamondbacks start mentioned) was strong. Then he struggled against the Dodgers. On the road, though he currently has a 17-inning scoreless streak over three games.

Madison Bumgarner burned me a bit the last time I bet against him. I thought he and Jose Urena were going to be rocked in the game and neither one of them was hit super hard – though Bumgarner still gave up four earned runs. He has been okay at home this year, posting a 4.50 ERA but he has struggled at night with a 5.71 ERA. August was brutal on him but September has been a bit better. He hasn’t fared well against the Padres this season, though. He has four starts and has only made it through 17 innings because he’s allowed ten earned runs and 22 hits. The best of those starts did come at home, though. In eight home innings against them, he’s only allowed two earned runs and five hits.

I think this is a good spot for the Padres to win the game. Maybe I’m falling in love with the play a little too much but I like these parlays, too. I’m going to take the Padres moneyline through five innings parlayed with the full game at +100. I am a little hesitant on the run line (though the team totals indicate that is a good play) because Bumgarner has shown he is at least a little better against them at home.

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Written by David Troy

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