Geoff Clark
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The 6-seed Golden State Warriors (1-1) head down to LA for Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Western Conference Semifinals vs. the 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers (1-1). Golden State evened the series after boat-racing LAL at home in Game 2.
Lakers big Anthony Davis, PG D’Angelo Russell, and SG Austin Reaves all no-showed. The Dubs hit 21-of-42 from 3 and Steph Curry only made three of those while Splash Bro Klay Thompson erupted for a 30-spot.
Warriors PF Draymond Green had a vintage performance in Game 2. Green only had an 11-11-9 stat line but had a much bigger impact than the box score suggests. Draymond locked up AD and set bone-crushing screens all game.
However, Golden State’s defense falls off a cliff on the road. Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Dubs go from 3rd in adjusted defensive rating at home to 28th in away games during the regular season.
Warriors At Lakers Game 3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
‘Zig-Zagging’ again in Game 3
I was both right and wrong about Warriors-Lakers Game 2. My Under 227 chopped when Golden State beat LAL 127-120. I cashed on Under 26.5 points for AD when he scored just 11 points.
Granted, the chop on the total was a bad beat for Over bettors. The 1st three quarters in Warriors-Lakers Game 2 all trended Over. But, just like I predicted, both teams took their feet off the gas and the 4th quarter saw only 37 points.
Golden State will have to be aggressive offensively in Game 3 to make up for its poor defense on the road. Plus, Steph is due for a monster game. He only scored 20 points in Game 2 and 27 points in the series opener.
LAL has the worst defensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate in these NBA playoffs. If Chef Curry gets cooking, it’s going to unlock Golden State’s offense. Even if he doesn’t, the Dubs will have wide-open looks due to Steph’s gravitational pull.
Also …
The Lakers should get a ton of ‘freebies’
Not only could LAL get home-cooking in Game 3 but they have a strength-on-weakness edge over Golden State in manipulating the officials.
Per CTG, the Lakers are 3rd in offensive free-throw-attempt rate (FTr) and the Warriors are 29th during the regular season. LAL led NBA in defensive FTr this season and Golden State ranked 19th defensively.
The Lakers have attempted 24 more free throws than the Warriors (46-22) in this series thus far. LAL’s best players should be well-rested since none of their starting 5 played in the 4th quarter of Game 2.
In the six Warriors-Lakers games this season (including the playoffs), LAL has a +7.5 free-throw-attempt margin over Golden State.
Moreover …
The Over is the ‘sharp’ play
The public is overreacting to that final quarter in Game 2. Per Pregame.com, more bets are on the Under as of 11:45 a.m. ET Saturday while more cash is on the Over in the consensus betting market.
Furthermore, Pinnacle Sportsbook (Pinny) has the Warriors-Lakers Game 3 total at 228.5 with more juice on the Over. Whereas DraftKings has a 228-point total at the time of writing.
The reason why I bring up Pinny is that’s a market-making sportsbook known for booking the largest sports bets in the world. “Market-making” means other shops copy Pinnacle’s spreads.
BET: Over 228 (-110) in Warriors-Lakers Game at DraftKings, up to 229
- Betting strategy: If you’re going to bet an Over, you usually want to do it as early as possible. The public likes to bet Overs and typically totals increase closer to tip-off.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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