Outkick's Vegas Top Ten For Week 6 2018
By Todd Fuhrman
Some weeks create upheaval at the, but there wasn’t a single result from Week 6 worth upsetting the apple cart; however the rest of our Bet the Board Top 10 wasn’t so fortunate. Michigan and Notre Dame continue to climb up our rankings with a potential statement game looming for the Wolverines this Saturday night vs. the overrated Wisconsin Badgers. Oklahoma was exposed on the defensive side of the ball forcing us to drop them (Happy Trails Coach Stoops), while Texas A&M survived a late defensive score from Kentucky to jump into the Top 10. Keep in mind the Aggies didn’t allow the Wildcats to run a single offensive play in their territory until overtime; talk about a misleading final score. Ultimately, we’ll head west for our overrated section, while a familiar SEC name is undervalued in the AP polls. For our best bet, we look at a contest where recreational bettors seem to be gravitating towards a ranked road underdog without a resume worth a damn.
Bet the Board Top 10 Week 7:
1.) Alabama
2.) Georgia
3.) Ohio State
4.) Clemson
5.) Michigan
6.) Notre Dame
7.) Penn State
8.) Oklahoma
9.) Washington
10.) Texas A&M
Overrated: Colorado
Colorado rose to #19 in the AP Top 25 this week after their 28-21 victory over Arizona State, bringing them to 5-0 on the season. When we break down the Buffaloes strength of opponents, or lack thereof, it’s staggering. So far Colorado has fattened up against Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, UCLA, and Arizona State, a group of teams with a combined record of 6-21; that’s even worse if you back out ASU. They’ve only played one true road game against a winless Nebraska side and they had to come from behind in the second half to win against a 3rd string quarterback forced into action late. The schedule starts to toughen up for Ralphie as they go on the road the next two weeks to USC and Washington. Put simply, Colorado doesn’t crack the Top 30 in offensive or defensive efficiency and you’d expect more than a +1.2 yards per play margin against this slate of featherweights. The popularity poll might love this team’s undefeated resume, but we’re definitely not buying stock here.
Underrated: Auburn
The Tigers are 4-2, with losses vs. LSU (last second field goal) and last week at Mississippi State. They currently rank 21st on the AP poll, however we haven’t soured quite that much on Gus Malzahn’s group yet. Auburn has faced one of the most difficult schedules thus far and unfortunately it doesn’t get any easier for them from here on in with Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama still on deck. Auburn has one of the best defenses in all of college football, and, despite not generating great yards per play metrics, they’re in the Top 25 in offensive efficiency. Auburn was #9 in our Top Ten last week and even with an anemic offensive effort they don’t deserve to drop as far in real rankings as they have in the popularity polls.
Best Bet: USC -7 (-105)
We discussed Colorado in our overrated section … USC is a different story. This is an excellent spot to back the Trojans off of a bye week with a ranked foe coming in for a primetime kickoff. USC out-played Stanford on the road earlier this year and the loss to the Longhorns looks a little different now that Texas is finding their stride. This will far and away be the best team Colorado has seen all year, and USC should have success shutting down Colorado’s run game forcing Steven Montez to prove his worth in a hostile road environment. USC opened -6.5 at BetOnline.AG and is now out to the key number of 7; Colorado has SELL written all over them this week, and we’ll let recreational bettors back the dog with fleas while we make a case for the much more proven side.