Outkick's Vegas Top Ten For Week 11 2018
Our top 4 teams won (and covered) convincingly last weekend and for the second straight week on field results required minimal movement in our Bet the Board Top 10 with Auburn and Washington sliding into the mix to replace LSU and Penn St. As for LSU…our brief tryst was fun while it lasted down there on the Bayou. We have an interesting board this week with two of our top 10 doing battle in Athens where Auburn is installed as a two touchdown dog after their improbable comeback at home against Texas A&M. There should be no surprise that Kentucky finds itself back in our overrated section while a quick trip north to West Lafayette from Lexington is where the most underrated team in the country resides this week. Don’t look know SEC fans but we’re going right to the heart of Tennessee to find our best bet as we continue fading an all too familiar dance partner.
Vegas Top 10 Week 11:
1.) Alabama
2.) Clemson
3.) Georgia
4.) Michigan
5.) Notre Dame
6.) Oklahoma
7.) Ohio State
8.) Washington
9.) Mississippi State
10.) Auburn
Overrated: Kentucky
This isn’t the first time the Wildcats have graced our overrated section and if getting +9.5 at home as the supposed #9 team in the country wasn’t enough to convince you, the performance against Georgia left no doubt. Despite all that, Kentucky only dropped two spots to #11 in the CFB playoff rankings. Kentucky proved what we already knew; they struggle to move the ball on offense and even against Georgia’s much maligned run defense they only mustered 2.4 yards per carry. The Wildcats currently sit at a net +0.6 yards per play, despite having a defense ranked Top 10 in defensive efficiency. Kentucky could very well win out, as they play Tennessee (however more on that below), Middle Tennessee, and Louisville, but that doesn’t mean they’ll crack our Top 25, even with a 10-2 record. Normally we’d say it’s a good thing hoops season is here for Big Blue but after that ass kicking against Duke we can’t provide you a silver lining this week.
Underrated: Purdue
We were on Purdue last week (hoping some of you pushed and/or won at better numbers since we opted not to give out the moneyline here) and still feel they are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Yes, they have 4 losses, however they’ve won 5 of their last 6, including victories over Boston College, Ohio State, and Iowa. Their offense was dynamic last week vs. a very strong defensive minded Iowa side (10.7 yards per pass attempt), yet that shouldn’t come as a surprise considering they’ve ranked in the Top 20 in offensive efficiency nearly all year. They are now +1.3 net yards per play for the season thanks to a defense holding relatively strong, keeping opponents to a modest 5.4 yards per play (57th). To put this simply, we have Purdue power rated higher than the team that qualified for the overrated section this week…funny how that seems to work.
Best Bet: Tennessee +6 (-110)
There is a saying that the toughest bets to make are usually the ones that cash so the trip to Neyland Stadium isn’t for the faint of heart. I’m not going to write about Tennessee’s metrics nor am I going to write the narrative that they’re “sneaky good”, or anything along those lines. This bet is predicated more about Saturday being a really tough spot for Kentucky fresh off of a soul crushing blowout loss at home to Georgia that would have won them the SEC East. Now Kentucky is locked in the #2 spot in the SEC East, still with a realistic shot of getting to the Peach Bowl but with significantly less motivation. Benny Snell remains beat up dealing with a slight ankle bruise so it will be interesting to see if the Wildcats ride him like they have done throughout the season. This number opened Kentucky -3 at BetOnline.AG, and we saw that get bet out to 6.5 before dog money entered the market. For an offense that has struggled so much throughout the year, laying 6 on the road vs. a gritty Vols team in a venue where they haven’t won since 1984 feels way too rich.