I’m not gonna lie, last week was not ideal — we went 6-8 against the number, dropping our yearly record down to 22-15, right at 60% for the year. That’s still good, but it’s time to rebound and kick some ass this week, with a a absolutely perfect 12-0 performance.
As always, don’t be a pussy and sign up for Outkick VIP right now. If you are betting these picks without being a VIP then you have cost yourself at least three wins already based on getting lines that have gotten worse than the lines when I post them on Sunday afternoon on Outkick. So you’ve already cost yourself more than the $99 you would have paid for a yearly membership by being cheap.
So stop being cheap asses and go sign up for Outkick VIP today, you get a free tshirt and access to our Outkick VIP events all over the country — we have one one in Nashville in two weeks — and you get to make money off gambling picks and hang out on our VIP message boards.
Plus, you can even pick Outkick’s First Amendment and Boobs tshirt as your free tshirt selection. That shirt is guaranteed to get you laid at the bar this weekend. Bonus, we have new first amendment and boobs tshirts designed to make fun of CNN’s logo.
So go do it, today.
Before we get started I want to point something else out to you — every line but one has moved in our favor. That is, if you had bet the numbers when these games came out, you would have a better number than the market in every bet except for Michigan-Purdue, where the line has moved against us.
The first place to put up college football lines every week is BetOnline. You can find all those lines here. The moment those lines go up I am picking the ones I like the best and immediately posting them on the Outkick VIP message board. Sometimes the lines move against me, but the vast majority of the time so far I’m on the right side of the line movement. (Even I’m not cocky enough to believe that Outkick is shifting the lines by what I’m telling you to do. Although that would be awesome to be able to do some day in the future.)
The other thing worth noting here is that many of these lines moves are past significant numbers. For instance, look at Kentucky-Florida below. Sure, the line from Kentucky +4 to Kentucky +2.5 might look insignificant to a layman, but a more seasoned gambler knows that all points aren’t created equal. The move from +4 to +2.5 is MASSIVE as it pertains to your chances to win a bet. Now you might still win or lose at both numbers, but there’s a decent chance this game ends on a field goal. You’d win under the bet I gave out on Sunday and lose under the current line.
Sure, you can wait on making your bets, but you’re actually costing yourself money by doing so.
Okay, here we go with the picks. We’re going 12-0, bitches!
Florida at Kentucky +4, and the under 44.5 (Now Kentucky +2.5 and 44)
The Kentucky Wildcats are going to beat the Florida Gators for the first time in thirty years! Yep, the Bluegrass state is going to be partying like it’s 1986, baby!
The Gators are not good.
And this game is going to be ugly and low scoring because Kentucky has a stout run defense and Feleipe Franks can’t throw the ball at all. (Unless Butch Jones is setting up the defenses for the final play of the game.)
So go ahead and get a double win here on Kentucky and the under.
Penn State at Iowa +13.5 (Now Iowa +12)
Remember last year when Michigan rolled into Iowa and the Wolverine season collapsed?
Well, I don’t think Penn State’s going to lose this game, but I do think they will get a scare and end up winning by 10 or less. That’s what frequently happens in conference road games, you get challenged even when you don’t anticipate a challenge.
Iowa is 3-0, but you don’t know that unless you’re an Iowa fan. The Hawkeyes are the play here.
Mississippi State +6 at Georgia (now Mississippi State +5)
I’m kicking myself because last week I violated one of my cardinal rules, never take a coach who is infinitely worse than another coach to cover more than a touchdown spread on the road.
And I got bamboozled into believing that Ed Orgeron wasn’t what I thought he was.
And then Dan Mullen went out and crushed LSU’s hopes and dreams.
Well, I’m not making that mistake this week. Dan Mullen is the second best coach in the SEC right now and we still don’t know exactly what to make of Kirby Smart.
But we do know that Mullen’s got the best quarterback in the SEC in Nick Fitzgerald. So we’ve got a better coach, a better quarterback and I’m getting six points?
Give me State and the points on the road in Athens.
Michigan at Purdue +8 (Now Purdue +10)
Jeff Brohm is the best coach in college football most of you haven’t heard of. He nearly pulled off the huge upset over Bobby Petrino in week one and last week he took his team on the road and bombed Missouri.
This week Purdue is back home and I just think Michigan is overrated and Purde is still underrated.
In every game of the Wolverines I’ve watched this season I haven’t been that impressed.
I know, I know, Michigan’s undefeated and the line has moved against me here — it’s the only game where the lines have moved against me — but that only makes me like Purdue more. If you like a game, trust your instinct, put more on it if the line moves against you.
The Boilermakers give Michigan a real scare and end up losing by a touchdown or less.
West Virginia -20 at Kansas (Now West Virginia -22.5)
Kansas gave up 45 to Central Michigan and 42 to Ohio.
And now West Virginia, which is averaging over 46 points a game, is coming to town and I will absolutely guarantee you that West Virginia is scoring 50 in this game.
And there’s no way Kansas is scoring thirty.
When I pull my abacus out and slide the pegs that means, hold on a sec…West Virginia by twenty or more!
This game is going to be a such a blood bath it’s going to be wait for it, OUR BLOOD BANK GUARANTEE BOYS AND GIRLS.
Run down to the blood bank right now and roll up your sleeve and have them start taking the platelets out of your arm and immediately put that money on my boy Dana Holgersen’s team to cover.
Get rich, kids.
Auburn at Missouri +18.5 (Now Mizzou +18.5)
I don’t think Auburn’s offense should be favored by 18.5 over air right now, guys.
Now, I get it, some of you Mizzou fans are like, “Our defense is pretty much air, Clay,” but I have faith that Mizzou isn’t as bad as they have looked on defense so far this year. And I also have faith that their offense will actually score a touchdown this week.
So I know it seems counterintuitive right now, but trust me on this one, take Mizzou and the points.
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech -25 (Now Virginia Tech -28.5)
Virginia Tech is an offensive machine under Justin Fuente right now.
Last week Virginia Tech scored 64 points against East Carolina.
Meanwhile last week Old Dominion gave up 53 to UNC.
I’m not a math expert, but that doesn’t seem to bode well for Old Dominion slowing down Virginia Tech’s offensive attack.
Take the Fighting Fuente’s big over ODU.
Alabama at Vanderbilt +19, the under 44.5 (Now Vandy +18.5, 43)
You ever make a bet and then ask yourself something like, “Wait, did I really take Derek Mason and Vanderbilt against Nick Saban and Alabama?”
This is when you need the courage of your convictions.
I have watched both these teams play all three of their games. And I’m telling you, Vandy is not three touchdowns worse than Alabama this year. I mean, sure, they’ll probably still lose by double digits, but I think the Commodores can keep this game close into the fourth quarter if they just play normally.
Seriously, Vandy doesn’t need to do anything extraordinary, they just need to play the same balanced offensive and defensive games they have played so far and they will keep this a low scoring game where they cover with ease.
You know all the public money is going to come pouring in on Bama and the over, but I really like Vandy and the under here. And I think the smart money — i.e. not the Bama fan money — will come in on our side on Saturday.
Oklahoma -27 at Baylor (Now Oklahoma -28)
Baylor is 0-3 and has the misfortune of having beaten Oklahoma two of the last four years. That means there are Oklahoma players on this roster who remember losing to Baylor.
That ain’t good for Baylor.
Because Oklahoma is going to open up a can of holy hell whoop ass on them and win by 30 or more.
Hell, this football beating’s going to be so bad Baylor might even report it to the Waco police.
Texas A&M-Arkansas, the under 56.5 (Now 54.5)
What happens when two coaches are on the hot seat, the two teams are evenly matched, and their teams are playing against each other?
Frequently neither coach wants to make a big mistake.
So the game is conservatively called.
That’s exactly what I think happens here.
In a losing coach goes home contest, I think one team wins 24-21 over the other. I lean towards A&M being the victor, but I like the under much more than playing either side.
There you have it boys and girls, we’re going 12-0 this week.