Outkick’s Gambling Picks For Week 3 2017

We went 4-4 last week running our season record to 16-7, a robust 70% winning percentage so far on the year.

How do we improve on 70%?

By going 14-0 this week!

Before I give you the picks, however, stop being a pussy and subscribe to the Outkick VIP. The first picks go up there at 5 eastern on Sunday afternoon. Literally the minute the college football picks are released anywhere online I’m sitting on BetOnline looking to see what the lines are going to be. You can see those lines every Sunday — as well as constantly updating online odds — here.

And I post the picks immediately on the message board.

Which means if you’re sitting there ready to roll you can get some great lines and make some good money.

But only if you’re in the Outkick VIP. So stop being a cheap pussy and sign up today. It’s only $99 for the year — money you’d have already made back with the picks — and you get a free tshirt and access to our Outkick VIP events. So go sign up here and pick out a free tshirt in the process.

Okay, with that in mind, here we go, 14-0 is coming.

Kentucky at South Carolina -5 and the under 50.5 (Now South Carolina -6.5 and 50.5)

South Carolina burned us on Saturday at Mizzou, dominating the Tigers and crushing our hopes of the over and the Mizzou cover. That’s on me, I chose poorly in backing the wrong side out of week one’s results.

But I’m not making this mistake in week two.

Here’s the deal, Kentucky has not been good in either week one or week two and I don’t think the Wildcats are going to suddenly play great on the road at South Carolina. Remember, this is the home opener for the young Gamecocks, they’ve won twice in neutral and road settings over teams that were favored to beat them. Now they get to come home to Williams-Brice.

Kentucky has much less offensive firepower than either North Carolina State or Missouri and Will Muschamp is going to stifle them.

I love the -5 line I got, but I also love any line here beneath single digits. Because I believe the Gamecocks are going to win by 10 or more.

21-10 is my prediction on this game, which also means it’s a good move to sprinkle some additional money on the under if you want to double down on this one and start off your day 2-0.

Oklahoma State -10 at Pitt (Now Oklahoma State -13.5)

What happens when a good offensive team goes on the road against a team that’s not very good? The good offensive team typically rolls.

Especially when that team is coached by Mike Gundy and his glorious, beautiful flowing mullet.

I don’t see this game being close, chalk up a win for the Cowboys by over two touchdowns.

UCLA -3.5 at Memphis (Now UCLA -3)

Sometimes you just have to look at the quarterbacks and make your decision that way.

Do I believe that Josh Rosen, the potential number one pick in the draft, is going to travel to the Liberty Bowl and lose to Riley Ferguson?

No way that’s happening.

So don’t overthink this, take UCLA and cash your check.

Clemson at Louisville +3 (Now Louisville +3)

I believe in two things absolutely: the first amendment and boobs.

But Bobby Petrino’s coaching acumen isn’t far behind these two things.

We saw what Petrino did to Florida State last year in Louisville and I think he’s going to find a way to devise a game plan to beat Clemson this year too.

The only thing that makes me nervous here is the match up between Louisville’s offensive line and Clemson’s defensive line, but I think Louisville is much better here than they were at the end of the season when Houston, Kentucky, and LSU destroyed them in three straight games.

So give me Petrino and the Cardinals here, not just to cover, but to win outright.

(By the way, if Clemson doesn’t lose this game, the ACC will be effectively over on November 11th when Florida State rolls into Death Valley. I just don’t see the Tigers losing twice in conference play and letting anyone else into the title game in this division.)

Tennessee +8.5 vs. Florida and the under 49.5 (Now Vols +5 and 49.5)

Neither Tennessee nor Florida is very good on the offensive or defensive sides of the ball, but I think the fact that Florida opened over a touchdown favorite in this game was pure insanity.

And I still think the Gators being favored by five points is absurd.

Neither team is going to score many points here and I see the final score being something like 20-17. Which is why I’m confident taking the Vols and the under in this one.

Here’s an easy way to think about this game — if the Vols win, UT fans will be ecstatic and Butch Jones will be walking on air. If Florida wins, Gator fans aren’t going to be very excited, but if they lose, they’re going to be furious. So all the pressure is on the Gators here.

I don’t like teams that aren’t very good being under pressure, because that often makes them play worse. Toss in the continuing suspensions and poor quarterback play and I just don’t see how this is anything other than a toss-up game.

Louisiana-Lafayette +22.5 vs. Texas A&M (Now LA-Lafayette +23.5)

College football gambling is often psychological. How will a team and coach respond to adversity? Last week Texas A&M was not very good on the offensive side of the ball against Nicholls State. So the question you have to ask yourself is this, was that a layover from a really difficult road loss at Texas A&M or are the Aggies just not that good on that side of the ball?

I think it’s the latter more than the former.

With that in mind, this is a big number for the Aggies to cover.

Especially when the Ragin’ Cajuns can score some points themselves. So give me the Cajuns and a boat load of points.

LSU -6.5 at Mississippi State (Now LSU -7)

This is a fascinating game to me, is LSU as good as I think they are or have they simply beaten two not very good teams so far?

Meanwhile, is Dan Mullen, who many would argue is the second best coach in the SEC, able to get his Bulldog team to pull off a substantial upset?

That seems unlikely. Especially since Mississippi State is 2-23 in their past 25 games against LSU and Dan Mullen is 1-7 against the Tigers. In fact, as he enters his ninth year at State do you know how many seasons Mullen has finished with a winning record in the conference?

Once.

I know the last three games have been close, but ultimately LSU just has too many horses and I think Ed Orgeron may have the best offensive and defensive coordinators in the league. So give me LSU here, they just have too many good players to not cover this number.

Kansas State at Vandy +4.5 and the under 49 (Vandy +3.5 and 49)

Vanderbilt has been fantastic on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball and so has Kansas State. The Commodores have outscored opponents 70-6 and the Wildcats have won 110-26.

But only Vandy has played a decent opponent, MTSU in week one.

With the competition stepping up for both teams, I think the points are limited here and neither team is able to create much breathing space. A win here would do wonders for Derek Mason, as it would likely propel the Commodores into the top 25 and make a second straight bowl trip very likely.

Meanwhile for Bill Snyder, a nice win here and his Kansas State team is poised to contend, potentially, for the Big 12 title given the fact that they have the Sooners coming to Manhattan.

Ultimately, I can’t bet against Kansas State winning, but I also can’t take them beating the Commodores by over a field goal, so I’m on Vandy and the under here.

Texas at USC, over 67 (Now 67)

Texas gave up 51 points to Maryland and USC has infinitely better offensive talent than Maryland does. But Texas can score points themselves.

So rather than worry about late touchdowns swinging big point spreads why not go ahead and have the over hit by the start of the fourth quarter?

USC scores at least 45 and Texas scores at least 28.

My math ain’t perfect, but I believe that’s 73.

Cha-ching!

Ole Miss -3.5 at Cal and the over 72 (Now Ole Miss -3.5 and 72.5)

This game doesn’t kick off until 10:30 eastern, but I’m telling you nothing will be more fun than drunkenly watching this late night double winner.

Neither team has a defense, but Ole Miss has the better offense.

Points will be raining down aplenty.

And hopefully all those Berkeley kids fighting against free speech won’t be too triggered by seeing Ole Miss kicking their asses up and down the field. Honestly, how much better would this game be if the Ole Miss band still played Dixie and Colonel Reb was patrolling the sideline?

Can you imagine how many snowflakes would melt in the stands?

There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 14-0 this week.

Don’t be a pussy, get subscribed to Outkick VIP now.

Written by Clay Travis

OutKick founder, host and author. He's presently banned from appearing on both CNN and ESPN because he’s too honest for both.