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We now have three straight weeks of winning gambling picks — and we missed a huge payday on a five team parlay I gave out Saturday morning because Vandy kicked a late field goal — and are sitting at 64-61 on the year, which is a 51% winning percentage.
With three weeks to go in the regular season, the conference title games, and the bowl games and playoff there is still ample time to get on a legitimate roll and drive that number up north of 55%, which is my goal every year.
And our push down the final stretch of the season starts this week with 12 guaranteed winners.
Go sign up for Outkick VIP today. It’s $99, but the gambling picks are going to make you money and you get a free tshirt. Plus, we’ve got a bunch of Outkick VIP events coming up soon.
All initial lines, as always, are from Bet Online, which posts the first college football lines available anywhere.
Okay, here we go, 12-0, baby!
Michigan State +14.5 at Ohio State (Now Michigan State +15)
Last week I told you Ohio State was wildly overvalued at Iowa and we didn’t just cover, we got an outright win as a 21 point underdog. (The line opened at Iowa +16 and just kept climbing).
This week I think the line is similarly crazy.
Mark Dantonio has won against Jim Harbaugh and James Franklin this year and he’s 3-3 in his last six games against Ohio State, all of them decided by 12 or fewer points. Including the past two games being decided by scores of 17-14 and 17-16.
So why do we suddenly think this game is going to be a blow out?
It makes no sense.
Do I think Michigan State’s going to beat Ohio State? No, but do I think over two touchdowns is an insane line here? Yep.
So give me the fighting Dantonio’s on the road in Columbus.
FAU -5.5 at La. Tech (Now FAU -5.5)
There’s no other way to say this — Lane Kiffin fucked us last weekend.
I mean, just totally royally fucked us. (Many of you had FAU -7 or even -6.5 even though our official pick was -7.5).
Up seven with less than 20 seconds to play Kiffin inexplicably took a safety and then tweeted out that he didn’t want to cover because of rat poison.
I swear to god all of this actually happened.
Now Kiffin, who is coming on Outkick Friday, travels to Louisiana Tech and I think he makes up for his dastardly act by covering with ease against Tech.
At least that’s my thought process here.
Georgia -2 at Auburn (Now Georgia -2.5)
Ultimately this bet is about complete faith in Kirby Smart this year and less faith in Gus Malzahn. Georgia has been methodical so far this year in taking care of every opponent and I don’t see why that stops with Auburn.
I know this is a rivalry game and that means anything can happen, but Georgia has won three straight and nine of the past 11.
And other than Mizzou no one has really moved the ball in the SEC against Georgia’s defense.
I don’t see that changing with Auburn and think the Bulldogs get it done here. Plus, I love getting them as under a touchdown favorite.
Rutgers +28 at Penn State (Now Rutgers +30.5)
Rutgers may be the most disrespected team in the Big Ten this year. It’s not just that Rutgers is frequently underdogs, it’s that they are huge underdogs. Yet the Scarlet Knights are 7-2 against the spread and we’ve bet them in the Outkick picks early in the year against Washington, against Ohio State and against Michigan and gone 2-1 in those games.
I just think this line is way too high and I think most people just recoil from putting a bet down on Rutgers. Especially when they play a good team. I think this is psychological, because if you take Penn State and they don’t cover you can tell your buddies that Penn State blew it. But if you take Rutgers and they don’t cover your buddies all say, “Why the fuck were you on Rutgers, idiot?”
Rutgers has had one bad performance all season, against Ohio State, and hasn’t lost a Big Ten game against another opponent by more than 21.
So give me Rutgers on the road in Happy Valley.
And if they get blown out you can tell your friends you bet them because that idiot Clay Travis told you to.
Tennessee at Mizzou -10 (Now Mizzou -11)
A couple of weeks ago I told you Mizzou was going to trounce Florida and Tennessee. Well, last week we got the first trouncing, an easy win for the blood bank guarantee as Missouri dominated the Gators. Now the same thing is going to happen against Tennessee.
I was hoping this line was going to open much lower so I could load up as much money as I possibly could and then I was also hoping this line would come down during the week, but instead it has gone up.
I don’t see any way Tennessee keeps Mizzou from scoring 35 or more and I just don’t see any way that Tennessee can score 21 or more. So, bang, there you have it.
Another blood bank guarantee on Mizzou.
Notre Dame -4 at Miami (Now Notre Dame -3)
Notre Dame has won every game this year by double digits except for a one point loss to Georgia. Now the Fighting Irish are going on the road for an old school college football rivalry reunion, it’s Catholics vs. Convicts all over again. (With the added irony of Notre Dame actually having more arrested players on its football team than Miami does.)
Ultimately I just think the Notre Dame offensive line is too good for Miami to stop.
And while I was clearly wrong last week about the U in their game against Virginia Tech, I think the Irish win by double digits and cement their status as a likely playoff team.
Plus, and you guys can hate me for this, I’m just not a believer in the U. They were great last week, but they’ve been mediocre against mediocre opponents for most of the past six weeks.
Florida at South Carolina under 45.5 (Now 45.5)
How bad have things gotten for the Gators? They opened a nine point underdog at South Carolina. Yep, Will Muschamp, the fired Gator coach, is now expected to beat his former team by over a touchdown.
The Gator offense is flat out awful and they can’t score. In fact, the Gators haven’t scored more than 17 points since September. (That’s 16, 17, 7 and 16 in their past four SEC games, for an average of 14 points a game in their past four SEC contests).
Meanwhile the South Carolina offense is no scoring juggernaut either so I expect both teams to struggle to score and for the under to hit with ease.
Texas Tech at Baylor over 72 (Now 72.5)
Remember last week when I told you to just sit back and watch the points roll in and we’d already hit the over on Bedlam by halftime?
The same thing is going to happen this week in Texas Tech at Baylor.
Let the points rain down upon you and celebrate your easy cover.
TCU at Oklahoma -6.5 (Now Oklahoma -6.5)
Okay, this game has me a bit nervous because the past five contests between these two teams have been decided by seven or less. But I’ve been waiting for it to go beneath a touchdown and it just did today.
I feel like Baker Mayfield has this Oklahoma offense rolling right now and I don’t see how the Sooners have a let down at home when every game is effectively a playoff game now for them.
In fact, I think Oklahoma comes out and wins this one by double digits to cement their status as the four seed in next week’s playoff rankings.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt over 52.5 (Now 53)
Typically the Kentucky-Vandy game is low scoring and ugly. Indeed, we haven’t had an over this high hit since 2010.
Which means the moment I saw this line my jaw nearly dropped, because this isn’t a line that reflects what we’ve seen this year, it’s a line that reflects the history of this series.
And I don’t think this is going to be your typical Vandy and Kentucky game. First, Vandy’s defense isn’t very good this year — every SEC opponent has scored 34 or more — and second, every Kentucky opponent save South Carolina has scored at least 26 on the Wildcats this year.
And both Vandy and Kentucky have scored a decent amount in their competitive games. (Leaving aside the blowouts for Vandy against Alabama and Georgia and the blowout for Kentucky at Mississippi State).
So I think Vandy is going to hang 30 or more on Kentucky and I think there’s a pretty good chance Kentucky hangs 30 on Vandy too.
Which means we’ve got an easy hit on the over.
Arkansas at LSU -16.5 and the over 56
Arkansas’s defense is flat out awful. In its five SEC games so far this season the Razorbacks have allowed 50, 48, 41, 52, and 37. As if that weren’t enough, Arkansas also gave up 37 to Coastal Carolina last week. That means in the last six weeks Arkansas has averaged giving up 44 points to opponents.
Now, I get it, LSU’s offense hasn’t exactly been explosive, but they are going to look like it against Arkansas.
So I love LSU to blow out Arkansas here and the over to hit with ease.
3 Game Parlay
I absolutely love the under 45.5 on Florida-South Carolina, the over 53 on Kentucky-Vandy and Mizzou -11 vs. the Vols.
And if you want to add one more on top of this, I’d make it a four game SEC parlay and take the over in LSU-Arkansas too.
Get rich, kids.
And, by the way, if we hit this Outkick Parlay and you motherfuckers don’t immediately go subscribe to Outkick VIP, you’re all a bunch of freeloading pussies.