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Last week was an unmitigated disaster.
We went 3-7 dropping our college football record beneath .500 for the first time in two years. Continuing the theme, the blood bank guarantee went 0=2 as well. And it wasn’t just the Outkick picks either, I got crushed on Lock It In, posting the worst week of the year there too.
The end result, we’re now sitting at 49-51 with 100 picks officially made on the year.
These are the times that try a gambling man’s soul.
All is not lost, however, you can win $10k of my money this week by playing the free college football pick’em. I hope you all lose, but you can go make your picks here.
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks — or hate me and want to fade everything that I do — I post my picks Monday afternoon on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Here we go with the picks, have faith, 10-0 is coming, baby!
Wisconsin +14 at Ohio State, now Wisconsin +14.5
Leave it to the Badgers to lose to Illinois and destroy what would have otherwise been an absolutely massive game in Columbus featuring two unbeaten teams.
Rarely do you lose a game when the other team doesn’t run a single play inside your red zone, but Wisconsin’s defense fell apart, allowing three 29+ yard touchdowns.
The end result?
No one believes in the Badgers even keeping it remotely close against Ohio State on Saturday.
That seems wild to me because Wisconsin’s defense has been incredible so far this year. In fact, if you take away the three busted plays against Illinois, the defense was still stout throughout that game as well.
I’m not saying Wisconsin’s going to beat Ohio State, but the fact that this line has ticked out past two touchdowns is a huge number for a defense like Wisconsin has. One reason that number has ticked out like this? Ohio State has covered six straight games, killing the books in the process.
Surely we get a regression at some point, right?
Give me the Badgers to cover.
Mississippi State at Texas A&M -10, now A&M -10.5
Here’s the deal, Mississippi State has beaten Texas A&M four of the past five seasons, but State is wobbly right now, having lost two straight SEC games by double digits — to Tennessee and LSU.
As if that weren’t enough State’s head coach, Joe Moorhead, is being rumored for the Rutgers job and Jimbo Fisher, who makes $7.5 million a year, hasn’t won a single SEC home game yet in year two in College Station.
This is the kind of game where if Jimbo loses Aggie fans revolt.
Meaning the pressure is squarely on A&M to show that all is not lost this season.
And ultimately this game is about a simple fact — Mississippi State isn’t very good on offense and can’t score enough to keep this game inside of two touchdowns.
Gig’em, Aggies cover.
Auburn +12.5 at LSU and the over 58, now Auburn +10.5 and over 58
Auburn has not won at LSU since 1999.
That’s a pretty wild stat given the two teams play there every other year.
That’s nine straight road losses.
What’s more, in the past 12 years of this rivalry LSU has won nine and Auburn has won just three.
So why is game going to be any different? It’s not — LSU still wins, but this line is just too high.
The last three games between these two teams have been decided by five points or less and I think this is a touchdown game on Saturday too.
What’s more, I also think both offenses have success, especially LSU’s, which is going to post at least 35 points in this game. (Yes, even against this Auburn defense). Meanwhile Auburn scores 28 or more.
What’s that add up to? An old-fashioned Bayou shootout that ends with an Auburn seven point loss and an easy over.
Penn State at Michigan State, the under 42.5, now the under 44
Do you know the three winningest coaches in college football since 2016?
Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney and…James Franklin at Penn State.
Those James Franklin numbers would be even better if Michigan State hadn’t won three straight against the Nittany Lions.
This year Penn State is roughly a seven point favorite, but I’m leery of this game after the big win over Michigan and given recent history between the two teams. That is, Michigan State knows they can certainly play with and beat this Penn State team. They aren’t intimidated.
That’s why I absolutely love the under here.
Both defenses are stout and I feel like I already know exactly what’s going to happen, the Nittany Lions win 21-17.
In fact, I’m so confident in the under hitting that tap the veins boys and girls, it’s my blood bank guarantee.
Mizzou -10 at Kentucky, now Mizzou -10.5
Last week Mizzou losing at Vanderbilt was one of the most shocking results of the season. That’s true even though most of the nation didn’t realize this even happened.
The Tigers were a 21+ point favorite and they fell apart on the road in Nashville.
This week Mizzou is traveling to Lexington and Kentucky, put simply, can’t score right now.
After a week to lick their wounds, I think Mizzou comes out hot and puts this game away early.
Kentucky’s only SEC win so far this season is Arkansas and I’m honestly not sure they count as an SEC team.
It’s gonna be a massacre in the Bluegrass, take Mizzou, big.
South Carolina at Tennessee +4 and the under 49, now Vols +4, 47.5
Will Muschamp has never lost to Tennessee in his coaching career.
Yes, that’s a real stat.
Muschamp is 7-0 against the Vols. That’s made even wilder when you consider that if you take Tennessee out of his coaching record Muschamp is just 45-42 against every other team in college football.
So it’s not just that Muschamp has dominated Tennessee, it’s that the only team Muschamp has dominated in all of college football is Tennessee.
What’s made this streak all the more frustrating is the way the past four games have gone: Muschamp won 10-9 in his final season at Florida and then has won the last three at South Carolina by scores of 24-21, 15-9, and 27-24.
All four of these games could have easily gone the opposite way.
I think Muschamp’s streak ends in Knoxville on Saturday when Jeremy Pruitt’s Tennessee team finds a way to win 17-13, in an ugly, low scoring slugfest.
Hop on the Vols and the under.
Notre Dame at Michigan -1.5 and the under 51, now Notre Dame -1 and 51
Jim Harbaugh just released a statement saying he isn’t going to the NFL after this season and blamed his enemies for spreading the rumor.
Which is interesting because why do Harbaugh’s enemies need to spread rumors? Can’t they just point to his coaching record instead?
For a fifth straight year it appears the nation’s most overrated football coach will not manage to win his own division in the Big Ten.
So it’s easy to pile on Jim Harbaugh and Michigan and expect the Wolverines to no-show here against a good Notre Dame team that has had a bye week to get ready for their last big game of the year.
That’s certainly what the majority of the public expects here, as the money has all poured in on Notre Dame, taking this line from Michigan -4 at the opening all the way out to Notre Dame -1.
But here’s the deal: I believe Michigan is being oversold here.
If you watched the game against Penn State, the Wolverines actually outgained Penn State in that game. It was totally different than the no-show effort we got against Wisconsin.
Michigan is, dare we say it, trending up even if most haven’t noticed it yet.
Which is why the Wolverines win a low-scoring, defensive struggle in Ann Arbor.
Take the Wolverines and the under.
There you go, 10-0 is coming this week.
Remember, it’s always darkest before the dawn.