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We were close to perfect in week eight, racking up an 8-2 record to bounce our weekly totals back out to 55-42 on the season for a winning percentage of 57%.
That’s a pretty good record as we approach 100 overall picks and consider all the close losses we have racked up so far this season.
My goal, as always, is to hit 60% winners on the season. That’s an incredibly high standard — if you hit 52% you win money accounting for the vig — but in order to do that we have to keep winning at a high rate through the end of the season.
So let’s start winning, baby!
I’ve got 10 more picks coming for you this weekend, which are, of course, going to go 10-0, but I also want to ask you to spend a small bit of the money you’ve won and buy my new book which is out in bookstores now, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too. It’s $16 right now on Amazon and if you don’t want the hardback book, you can buy the nine hour unabridged audio version I recorded myself.
If you want an autographed copy — as many of you do — this is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks on Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
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The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.
So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.
Georgia -7 vs the Gators and the under 52.5, now Georgia -6.5 and 52
Georgia has had two weeks to stew over their performance on the road at LSU. During that two weeks I think what bothered Kirby Smart the most was the Georgia defense giving up 275 yards rushing to LSU.
There’s no way they let Florida run the ball on them like that.
In fact, I think the Bulldog defense will rebound with a fury.
Last year after losing on the road by 23 at Auburn, the Georgia defense gave up 27 points in their next three SEC games. So I think Georgia’s defense will stifle this Florida offense. That’s especially the case because I’m not convinced Feleipe Franks is very good at all. It’s a credit to Dan Mullen that he’s won as many games as he has with Franks as his quarterback.
I also, however, like this Gator defense quite a bit.
That means I see a relatively low scoring game which the Bulldogs win by 10 points or more.
Call it 24-13 Bulldogs, meaning you win both sides of this bet.
Texas A&M +3 at Mississippi State and the under 45.5, now Texas A&M +2.5 and 45.5
Sometimes games are simple — the wrong team is favored here.
Texas A&M is better than Mississippi State and I think they’ll win this game outright.
On top of that, look at the total points scored in the five games Mississippi State has played against FBS competition so far this season: 41, 35, 19, 32, 22.
You noticing a trend here?
That’s an average of 29.8 points per game in Mississippi State games so far this season. Yet the over/under here is 45.5, which is way too high.
That’s why the play here is not just Texas A&M to win outright, it’s to make sure and take the under too.
Purdue +2 at Michigan State, now Purdue +1
Remember how I said occasionally the wrong team is favored in a game?
That’s what we’ve got again here.
Purdue, I believe, will eventually end up favored in this game against Michigan State. The Boilermakers have won four games in a row, including three in the Big Ten, two of those on the road. Do you know what they’ve won those three Big Ten games by? By 14 at Nebraska, 39 at Illinois, and 29 over Ohio State.
So what in the world makes you think Purdue isn’t going to beat Michigan State outright on the road?
Pure insanity, that’s what.
Take the Boilermakers.
Clemson at Florida State +17, now FSU +16.5
I’m going to be honest with y’all, this is a bet on Florida State’s talent and that they have some pride in Tallahassee. For a moment back in September it appeared the wheels were going to come off the Seminole program and then something wacky happened, FSU, sitting at 1-2, started winning. They’ve gone 3-1 in their past four games and the only loss was at Miami.
I know Clemson is the much better team than FSU, but this is a rivalry game and this line is, I believe, insanely high considering Trevor Lawrence has never started a game on the road in a tough environment like this. (Sorry, Wake Forest doesn’t count).
Plus, Clemson has only ever beaten FSU by over 17 points once, back in 2004.
And they have never beaten FSU by more than 7 points in Tallahassee.
I think that history matters for both sides, which is why I think FSU covers with ease here.
Vandy at Arkansas, the over 52
You know it’s bad for the Razorbacks when Vanderbilt is a road favorite over you, but I actually think the way to play this game is to bet the offenses will both show up and score some points.
Vandy has got a pretty good offense and I think they’ll have success against the Arkansas defense because every SEC team has had success against the Arkansas defense — so far in SEC games Arkansas has given up 34, 24, 65, and 37 points. That means I feel good about Vandy scoring at least 24 and probably more.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s defense has not been very good in SEC play, giving up 37, 41, 37, and an outlier of just 14 to Kentucky.
Toss out Kentucky, which we’ll discuss below, and I feel good about Arkansas putting up at least 28 on Vanderbilt.
Add up those two numbers and you hit 52.
Honestly, I think the teams will combine for sixty or more.
Meaning you cash an over ticket with ease.
Kentucky at Mizzou -6.5 and the over 54, now Mizzou -7 and 55
Yes, Kentucky is 6-1 and Wildcat fans have every reason to be ecstatic about that fact. But that doesn’t mean Kentucky is a really good football team. In fact, I think it means that Kentucky has found ways to beat offenses that are pretty challenged.
Indeed, Kentucky hasn’t scored more than 28 in an SEC game this season. And the past couple of weeks have been even worse. The Wildcats didn’t cross midfield on offense against Texas A&M and the only scored 14 against Vanderbilt while posting just 18 passing yards.
The problem is Kentucky is going up against a really good offense in this game and I think Mizzou will exploit Kentucky in the passing game — particularly with their tight end — and open up a double digit lead early. This double digit lead will force Kentucky out of their rushing attack and will lead to many more points being scored than expected.
Oftentimes gambling on over/unders is about determining whose pace will govern the contest. Here, it’s Mizzou’s.
My double blood bank guarantee this week? It’s Mizzou and the over.
Vols +8.5 at South Carolina, now Vols +7.5
This bet is more about South Carolina than it is Tennessee.
I just don’t think South Carolina is that good of a football team this year.
The best game of the Gamecock season, by far, was their performance on the road against Vanderbilt. Outside of that game — and the deluge rainstorm when Mizzou couldn’t hold on to the football and gave up a big lead — South Carolina has not been very good.
The question here is this, will Tennessee’s receivers make a couple of big plays down the field when Jarrett Guarantano throws it up to them as he inevitably will? At Auburn they did, and the Vols pulled off the upset. If they do it again, the Vols could win outright; if they don’t, South Carolina probably wins a close game.
Last year Tennessee had its worst team in program history and was throwing into the end zone late with a chance to beat South Carolina.
The last six games in this series have been decided by six points or less.
I don’t see any reason why that changes on Saturday in Columbia.
The Vols cover.
There you have it, we’re going 10-0 this week.
Get rich, kids!