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We went 4-10 last weekend.
And I’ve got to be honest with you, the gambling gods have been allied against us the past two weeks. Last week we got killed and finished 5-5 and this week we were sitting at 2-1 when Auburn tossed a touchdown pass with thirty second left to hit the over and drop us to even money. Then at 2-2 on the early games, I’m watching all the afternoon games when I have to leave for the airport to fly to London. (I’m making the picks right now from London and about to head to the London Legoland with my kids. Honestly, I’m jealous of my kids lives.)
When we left for the airport we were looking decent for a push in both Georgia-LSU and UCF-Memphis. At halftime in both of these games the over was in great shape 30-17 in UCF-Memphis and the under looked like a lock on Georgia-LSU — it was 16-0. Even at the end of the third quarter, it was 19-9 in Georgia-LSU and the under still looked great. Meanwhile UCF had come storming back to take a 31-30 lead with 12 minutes left in that game. So I’m thinking we’re going to be sitting right around 5-6 or 6-5 when the evening games start.
Then, boom, everything fell apart.
Georgia and LSU score 31 points in eleven freaking minutes in Death Valley and neither Memphis nor UCF score in final 12 minutes. Then Penn State falls apart in Happy Valley.
So we’re sitting at 3-8 and I’m at the airport wondering what just happened.
I get to watch the first halves of Mizzou-Alabama and Ole Miss at Arkansas and I feel pretty good about both of these games. 3-0 looks like a real possibility. Bama is up 30-10 at the half — making the over and Bama covering look likely — and Ole Miss and Arkansas have combined for 44 first half points and all we need is 72 to hit the over.
Then I hop my flight to London — which is without WIFI — and have no connection to the world for the next eight hours. (Seriously, how is there no wifi on a transatlantic flight?! I didn’t even think this was possible.) So I’m wondering what in the world is happening in both of these games as we travel across the Atlantic. I land and the first thing I do is see that Ole Miss and Arkansas have finished at 70 points and that Bama has scraped by a cover and barely any points have been scored in the second half.
And we’d gone 4-10 on the week.
Which is just awful.
The results pushed us to 47-40 on the year, right at 54% winners on the season so so far.
As I’ve always said there’s only one way to dig yourself out of a hole — by continuing to dig.
So I’ve got 10 more picks coming for you this weekend, which are, of course, going to go 10-0, but I also want to ask you to spend a small bit of the money you’ve won and please buy my new book which is out in stores now, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too. It’s $16 right now on Amazon and if you don’t want the hard back book, you can buy the nine hour unabridged audio version I recorded myself.
If you want an autographed copy — as many of you do — this is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks on Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Stop being so cheap and sign up today.
All of our Outkick VIPs have now received their signed copies of the books. (And if you haven’t received your copy the last batch was shipped on Saturday and you should receive it any day now).
The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.
So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.
Vanderbilt +11 at Kentucky and the under 48, now Vanderbilt +11. under 48
I believe in Kentucky, but not as a double digit favorite over any SEC team. Plus, six of the last seven games between these two teams has gone under 48.
I just feel like this number is way too high on both sides, which is why, with some degree of trepidation, I’m betting on the Commodores.
I see Kentucky winning the game by a score of 21-13.
Boom, you hit the under and Vandy covers.
Central Florida -21 at East Carolina, now Central Florida -21
Last week Central Florida screwed us when they had two possessions after taking a one point lead where they should have been able to drive and put up some points to get us the cover.
But they failed to do so.
Worse, their defense held Memphis scoreless in the second half so they also killed us on the over too.
But am I the kind of guy to hold a grudge? Of course not.
This week I predict pure destruction for ECU. Especially because ECU has lost by 22 to Houston and 43 to Temple in the past two weeks.
It doesn’t get better for ECU against UCF. The Knights continue their quest for a second straight national championship and cover with ease.
Ohio State at Purdue +13.5, over 65, now Purdue +13, over 67
Purdue can score points.
After losing three straight games to begin the season, Purdue has won three straight, racking up 30, 42, and 36 against Boston College, Nebraska and Illinois, the latter two of those games on the road in the Big Ten.
Now Ohio State is rolling into town and while I’m going to stop short of calling for an outright upset, this is the perfect situation for an upset — Ohio State is already thinking about upcoming games against Michigan State and Michigan and they are playing for an eighth straight week.
That upset chance is particularly the case because Ohio State’s defense hasn’t really been that good this season. I see points raining down in this game and Purdue keeping it close into the fourth quarter.
Final score? Ohio State 45 Purdue 35.
Boom, two easy wins.
Memphis at Missouri, the over 72, now over 74
Another big scoring game specialty, this one will be fun to watch if you like to see offense.
Memphis, which is now just 4-3 on the season, has seen its offense vanish at inopportune times and Missouri desperately needs to get back on track after three straight losses.
So what happens here?
Points, lots of points.
Take the over and thank me later.
Michigan at Michigan State, under 46, now under 41.5
I gave out this game on Monday afternoon at 46 and it has already dropped down to 41.5.
I feel like we know exactly what will happen in Jim Harbaugh against Mark Dantonio — the same thing we’ve already seen happen three times before — a tight game that comes down to the final couple of plays.
What do I think happens this season?
Almost the exact same thing we saw happen last year — except this season Michigan wins a close one. But there’s no need to bet on who wins when you can take the under and cash with ease.
Alabama at Tennessee +29, now Tennessee +28.5
Here’s what I think is going to happen: either Alabama isn’t going to play Tua at all, in which case the Vols will be able to keep this game around three touchdowns, or Tua will play in the first half, push the Tide out big, and then Tennessee will come back late to score and cover against a Jalen Hurts led Tide offense like we saw with Louisiana and Arkansas.
Either way I think there is very good value on Tennessee at an over four touchdown home underdog.
This Tennessee defense is not awful and Jeremy Pruitt knows everyone playing on the Alabama offense very well meaning I think he’ll be about as well prepared to handle this team as anyone could.
Now that won’t be remotely good enough to win this game, but it should be good enough to keep this game inside the number.
Oregon at Washington State, over 66.5
The Pac 12 has turned into a total mess. Everyone has at least one loss and several contending teams have multiple losses. In fact, there is presently a four way tie in the loss column atop the Pac 12 North and two of those teams are involved in this game — Oregon and Washington State.
Here’s the question you have to ask yourself — what pace is this game going to be played at?
To me, that’s an easy answer, I think Washington State will play fast and Oregon will match them.
Which means points, lots of points.
Take the over and enjoy the fireworks.
Mississippi State at LSU, under 44.5
LSU has killed me this year — we’re 2-7 picking Tiger games both against the number and with over/unders — so you can definitely say, what in the world are you thinking picking their games at all?
But despite my record in LSU games I do feel like I have a pretty good read on LSU and Mississippi State this year and I think the under is the play in their game.
Right now every Mississippi State game against FBS competition has gone 41 or under (41, 35, 19, and 32 to be precise. That’s an average of 31.75 points per game).
Meanwhile, I’m still not sold on LSU’s offense. Yes, they’ve made plays at opportune moments, but most of the offensive production is inconsistent.
Which is why I love the under in this game.
There you have it, we’re going 10-0.
Get rich, kids.