I’m a day late posting the gambling picks because I spent yesterday at the White House meeting President Trump and watching Jason Whitlock interview him.
That feels like a pretty decent excuse for the late picks.
If you haven’t seen the OutKick-President Trump interview yet, here it is.
I’ll be talking about the day at the Oval Office on OutKick in an hour. Needless to say, it was pretty incredible.
But in the meantime, I’ve got to make you guys some money.
And speaking of making money, if you live in the state of Tennessee (or travel to the state for any reason) gambling is officially going to be legal next week. You can sign up right now and get $50. Again, there’s nothing complicated about this, go sign up and you get $50 to wager the minute sports gambling goes live next week.
Right now the OutKick gambling picks have been treading water. We went 4-4 last week to run our season record to 18-23.
Not good, not good at all.
Which means it’s time to get on a roll and go 10-0 this week.
As a reminder, these picks are posted by Tuesday afternoon on the OutKick VIP message board, so I’m using the existing lines on Tuesday in these picks. If you want to sign up for the OutKick VIP — and why wouldn’t you? — go sign up here. There is news on a meet up in Knoxville for VIP members presently posted on the message board.
Here we go with 10-0:
Auburn at Ole Miss +3
Are we going to hop on the Lane Train or the Gus Bus this week in Oxford? Both of these methods of transportation needed engine work after Saturday.
Hopefully for Auburn fans, Bo Nix has been instructed that on fourth down, he has to throw the ball into the end zone if his team is losing.
But unfortunately that’s the biggest issue here. I just don’t trust Auburn — or Bo Nix — at all. And while I think Ole Miss — given their past two weeks — has been incredibly erratic too, ultimately I trust Ole Miss to get back on the winning track here.
Yes, I said winning.
I don’t just think Ole Miss covers here, I think they win the game outright.
So hop on the Lane Train — and take the points to have a cushion — as Auburn falls below .500 on the year and all the rumors about Gus Malzahn being out at Auburn continue to grow.
Kentucky at Mizzou +6
Kentucky is coming off one of the biggest wins of the Mark Stoops era and Mizzou has been forced to wait two weeks to take the field again after an incredible goal line stand to win the game against LSU.
So which team has value here?
I think it’s a no brainer: Mizzou.
I love the addition of Connor Bazelak to Mizzou’s offense. Two weeks ago, Bazelak went 29 for 34 with 406 yards passing and four touchdowns. I know Kentucky has been on fire with interceptions — nine of them in the past two weeks — but that kind of success isn’t sustainable. Eventually you cycle back to average. (Unless you think Kentucky is going to set an all time interception record and finish with 34 for the year).
Average is where Kentucky is headed this weekend.
And average isn’t typically good enough to beat anyone but Vanderbilt on the road in the SEC.
Which is why Mizzou doesn’t just cover, they win outright.
South Carolina +6.5 at LSU
What has LSU done so far this season to convince you that they should be nearly a touchdown favorite over anyone in the SEC?
Not one thing.
Especially with the LSU injury issues at play here as well.
South Carolina has won two conference games in a row, and I think they have a decent chance to travel down to Baton Rouge and make it three in a row on Saturday.
The value is all on Will Muschamp’s side here, take the Gamecocks +6.5.
N.C. State +16 at North Carolina
Last week North Carolina went down to Tallahassee and found a way to lose as nearly a two-touchdown favorite. Even worse than that, they were down 31-7 at the half. So the easy expectation is for UNC to bounce back in a big way this weekend.
But this week, N.C. State is coming to town for a rivalry battle, and I think the Wolfpack is being severely underrated in this game.
N.C. State has won three of the last four in this series — the lone exception being a North Carolina beatdown last season.
This line feels absolutely massive when you consider that N.C. State is 4-1 so far in the ACC, coming off three straight wins in the conference.
I think the Tar Heels win, but N.C. State finds a way to cover the 16 with ease.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh +10.5
While the Big Ten is officially returning tomorrow, Pitt is poised to play their SEVENTH game of the season.
Their seventh game!
And oh what an erratic season it has been.
While Pitt has lost three in a row, two of those losses have been by a single point, and the most recent loss was a relatively even battle in Miami as well. (Total yards and first downs were nearly even against the Hurricanes).
My point here?
Pitt isn’t a bad football team, and they’ve now gotten a ton more on-field reps than most college football teams have.
On the other hand Notre Dame has been thoroughly mediocre the past two weeks, notching unimpressive victories over Florida State and Louisville.
This line just feels way too steep, which is why the value is all on Pitt here.
Nebraska +26 at Ohio State
At long last the Big Ten is back!
And with the Big Ten returning comes Ohio State stomping on all challengers.
Nebraska, which is now in year three of Scott Frost, fought hard to play a season at all in the Big Ten and so did Ohio State. Which is why I think college football fans should just be excited this Big Ten season is happening at all.
But let’s not pretend this has been a great rivalry so far.
The Buckeyes have won four straight years in this series against Nebraska by margins of 41, 5, 42, and 59.
Scott Frost, however, is a good coach and at some point he has to start to improve with the Cornhuskers. Right? Right? And sometimes improvement just means not losing by over forty points.
This year things get better, the Cornhuskers only lose by 21.
Oprah voice: AND YOU GET A COVER!
Oklahoma at TCU +6.5
So far, Oklahoma has lost twice as a favorite in the Big 12: at home against Kansas State and on the road at Iowa State. I know, I know, they beat Texas two weeks ago, but this Sooners team hasn’t proven they can handle any measure of success so far.
And TCU has kept it close against every Big 12 opponent, losing by three to Iowa State, two to TCU, and a touchdown to Kansas State.
This feels like a field goal game to me.
Which means the value is all on TCU.
Clemson -45 vs. Syracuse
Last week, Clemson hung 73 on Georgia Tech, and Syracuse lost by 17 to Liberty.
This does not bode well for Syracuse.
In fact, this feels like a “name your score” game for Clemson. And unfortunately for Dino Babers, Dabo Swinney has shown no mercy on opponents this season.
That continues this weekend.
By the way, what were the odds we’d have a college football game featuring Dino against Dabo?
Gotta be a thousand to one.
Which are about the chances that Syracuse wins this football game.
Give me Clemson, big.
Penn State at Indiana +6.5
Indiana fans already know how this game will go.
The Hoosiers will come out and take an early lead that they are nursing into the fourth quarter. Then, with Indiana leading by three points late and Hoosier fans hoping for a top ten upset, Indiana will allow Penn State to score with under a minute to play to win the game by four points.
Look deep within your soul, Indiana fans, you all know it’s true.
I’m just hoping we don’t get the crippling interception returned for a touchdown cover on the final drive.
So give me Indiana to cover this number, but cover your eyes on the inevitable final drive.
Alabama -20.5 at Tennessee
Last week was the worst performance for Tennessee in the Jeremy Pruitt era. Yes, even worse than Georgia State.
Unfortunately, I think things are about to get much worse this week, as the Vols are poised to lose their third straight SEC game.
Leaving aside the mess that is Jarrett Guarantano, this Tennessee secondary hasn’t been able to cover anyone all season. I think teams have a 100% completion rate on slants against the Vol defense this fall.
That’s ominous with Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle coming to town.
Alabama has already won 13 in a row in this series and, frankly, most of them haven’t been remotely close. That’s even been more the case in Neyland Stadium. Here are the margins of victory for Alabama in Neyland Stadium since Saban took over: 20, 31, 31, 14, 39, 37.
Tennessee hasn’t covered in this series since 2015.
While I’ll be there to watch this game in person, I just don’t see this game being remotely close.
You can, however, come hang out with us pregame in Knoxville. Details on the meet up are on the VIP message board.
But the Tide rolls, big.
Okay, there you have it, kids, we’re going 10-0.
Hope to see some of you this weekend in Knoxville.