We’re hot, baby!
Last week we went 8-2 with the Outkick picks — including another win on the blood bank guarantee — running our season record to 83-70 overall, which is good for a robust 54.2% winning percentage on the year.
I hope you’ve been playing every pick and I hope fade the picks guy is curled up in a fetal position silently whimpering to himself.
Because it has been a very, very rough stretch for him.
But even if you haven’t been a big gambler this year, you can win $10k of my money this week by playing Outkick’s free college football pick’em. I hope you all lose, but you can go make your picks here.
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks every Monday afternoon on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Okay, let’s roll into the holiday weekend and make some money by going 10-0 this week.
Here we go!
Ole Miss at Mississippi State the over 58, now 58.5
The Egg Bowl arrives with both teams facing disappointing seasons.
Ole Miss is 4-7 and Mississippi State is 5-6.
The Bulldogs are playing for a bowl game, whereas all Ole Miss is playing for is ruining Mississippi State’s season.
Which, to be fair, is often plenty of motivation in this rivalry.
Both teams have been difficult to forecast, but the one thing Ole Miss has done all year is be decent on offense. Meanwhile Mississippi State has shown flashes of offensive prowess, mixed with long stretches of football ineptitude.
Tomorrow night I think both teams get hot offensively and score at least 28 each.
The final ends up being 35-31, but it won’t matter to you who wins because your over will hit by nearly ten points.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee -21, now Tennessee -21
I love Tennessee here even though I was hoping the number wouldn’t be this substantial.
The Vols have covered six straight games and have won four SEC games outright as underdogs. (The only other time Tennessee has won four games as an underdog was back in 2007).
Amazingly, even though the Vols are 6-5 and headed to a bowl game this is the first time Tennessee has been favored in an SEC football game in the Jeremy Pruitt era.
Let me repeat that, this is the first time Tennessee has been favored to win an SEC football game since Jeremy Pruitt took over in Knoxville last year.
Thanks Butch Jones!
Honestly, the fact that Pruitt has won six SEC games so far, all of them as an outright underdogs, is pretty insane.
So I think this game has the potential, if you’ve watched what is happening with both teams all season, to be an old school Tennessee routs Vanderbilt contest. The kind of game, frankly, we haven’t seen in a long time.
Vanderbilt has won three in a row in this series, all by double digits, and five of the past seven.
Prior to James Franklin’s arrival in Nashville, Tennessee had lost one game to Vanderbilt since 1982.
Since then the Dores have been rolling.
But this year Vanderbilt has been awful in the SEC — save for an out of nowhere 21-14 win over Missouri — losing each SEC game by 17 or more. In fact, the Dores average margin of defeat in SEC games so far this year has been 29. And it has been even worse on the road where the Dores have dropped their three SEC games by an average margin of 32.6.
Given that the Vol offense is starting to find its groove with Jarrett Guarantano, I think this one is ugly for Vanderbilt.
Call it the Vols 42 Vandy 10.
Ohio State at Michigan +9, now Michigan +9
There is absolutely no reason to pick Michigan to win this game.
Which is why I really think Michigan might win this game.
Since the second half of the Penn State game the Wolverines have been playing very good football. Plus, for once, they have absolutely nothing to lose in this game since they’re already eliminated from the Big Ten East, the Big Ten title race, and the playoff race.
Whereas in past years the Ohio State game has been a launching point for the Wolverines national ambitions, this year it’s just another big game on their schedule.
If they win all Michigan can do is finally regain some mojo in a series they have lost 14 of the last 15 in.
Meanwhile, and I know it sounds crazy to say this, but Ohio State sort of finds this Michigan game as a trap. The Buckeyes are coming off a big win over Penn State and they have the Big Ten title game next week.
What happens against Michigan really doesn’t matter that much in their overall season.
It’s crazy to say it, but could the Buckeyes be a bit flat here? I think so.
Which is why this number feels steep and I’m hopping on the Wolverines to cover and, potentially, win outright.
Wisconsin at Minnesota over 47.5, now 46
The defensive prowess of both of these teams has started to wane as we’ve come down the stretch run of the season.
Minnesota managed to give up 22 points to Northwestern and and 23 to Iowa, which is like giving up 35+ to most teams.
Meanwhile Wisconsin, whose defense looked unstoppable early in the year, has given up 24, 38, 22, 21, and 24 in its last five Big Ten games. That’s an average of 25.8 points per game over the past five weeks.
I know the weather is a concern here, but sometimes the weather can lead to turnovers and defensive touchdowns as easily as it can stifle the offenses.
So I’m jumping on the over here and expecting both teams to score at least 24.
If that happens, who cares who wins, you’ll be cashing your over check.
Rutgers at Penn State -40, now Penn State -40
This is a simple bet on the fact that Penn State wants to erase the sour taste over its loss to Ohio State by delivering an absolute beat down to Rutgers to finish the season.
Yes, it’s possible that Penn State won’t be up for this game after the tough loss to Ohio State, but I think the Nittany Lions will rebound and absolutely dominate Rutgers all up and down the field all day long.
Unlike some coaches in this situation, I don’t think James Franklin will call off the offensive dogs.
He wants to score sixty in this one.
Give me Penn State by 45+.
Texas A&M +17 at LSU, now Aggies +17
Texas A&M is 7-4, but all four of those losses have come to top 15 teams. And none of them, save potentially Alabama, have really been complete blowouts. In fact, here have been the margins of defeat for the Aggies against top 15 competition: 14 vs. Clemson, 8 vs. Auburn, 19 vs. Alabama, and 6 vs. Georgia.
The Aggies were in position to beat Georgia last weekend and I think they will be competitive this weekend against LSU.
While we know LSU will score lots of points we also know the Bayou Bengals will give up points too.
That’s why 17 is just too many points here.
I see a final here of something like 42-28, meaning you get yourself a nice cover.
Georgia at Georgia Tech +28.5
Guys, have you seen Georgia’s offense this year?
The Bulldogs haven’t beaten someone by more than 28 points since October 5th and that was a late cover against Tennessee on a defensive score.
I know Georgia Tech isn’t good, but this is a rivalry game and the Yellow Jackets are at home. So far this year Tech has only been beaten by over 28 points twice, week one against Clemson and a couple of weeks ago against Virginia Tech.
What does Georgia Tech need to score to cover this number? Probably just seven points. Because I don’t see Georgia scoring over 35.
Put simply, I just can’t take Georgia to beat anyone in a major conference by over four touchdowns right now.
So give me the Yellow Jackets and the over four touchdowns.
Alabama -3.5 at Auburn, now Alabama -3.5
Tap the veins, boys and girls, this is my blood bank guarantee because I just love everything about this situation for Nick Saban and Alabama.
How often does Nick Saban get to play the disrespect card to his team?
Yet here the Tide are, with everyone writing them out of the playoff picture the moment Tua was injured, heading on the road against Auburn.
It really is the perfect us against the world mentality.
Meanwhile Bo Nix has completed less than half of his passes against top opponents and has been exposed, at times, by their defenses.
I think there’s more of the same here as the Tide rolls into Auburn and comes out with a 24-14 win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State +13.5, now Oklahoma State +13
This line seems wild to me.
Especially when you consider Oklahoma has won its last three games by a combined eight points.
Sure, the Sooners have won four in a row in this series, but the past two games have been absolute shootouts that either team could have won: 48-47 Oklahoma and 62-52 Oklahoma.
Expect another close game this year, as the Cowboys have won four in a row in the Big 12 and know they can beat Oklahoma outright.
I’m not saying Mike Gundy’s boys are going to win, but it wouldn’t shock me at all.
Which is why I absolutely love the Cowboys here plus nearly two touchdowns.
Florida State at Florida -17, now Florida -17.5
Dan Mullen’s 9-2 season has been mostly under the radar so far this year.
I can’t remember the Gators getting less attention for being in the top ten, maybe ever. Partly that’s because Florida started the season slow with narrow wins over Kentucky and Miami and then lost to LSU and Georgia, leading to the SEC East race being pretty much been decided for a month.
But behind Kyle Trask the Gators have quietly dominated down the stretch, winning against Vanderbilt and Missouri with comparative ease.
Now the Seminoles come rolling into town and the Gators are coming off a bye week and ready to devour them.
I don’t think this game is close.
Florida by 20+.
There you have it boys and girls, it’s ten winners for your holiday weekend.
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and thanks for reading Outkick!