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We went 6-4 last week with a double blood bank guarantee win on top of that to run our season record to 66-64 and notch our third straight winning week.
It’s good to be back in positive territory, but I’m not satisfied with 51% winners, of course, we need to keep the roll going as we come into the final three weeks of the regular season.
Even if you haven’t been a big gambler this year, you can win $10k of my money this week by playing the free college football pick’em. I hope you all lose, but you can go make your picks here.
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks — or hate me and want to fade everything that I do — I post my picks Monday afternoon on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Okay, here we go with 13 winners:
Indiana +14.5 at Penn State
The Hoosiers are quietly having an impressive season, now sitting at 6-2 and coming off their bye week for a trip to Happy Valley.
Meanwhile Penn State had a disappointing loss at Minnesota so it’s easy to expect the Nittany Lions to come out fired up. But this game is also situated right in front of a huge trip to Columbus to take on Ohio State, which means it’s the perfect spot for a trap game.
Which is why I feel it’s the perfect time to jump on Indiana with all these points.
I’m not saying Indiana is going to win — come on, Indiana football always chokes late in big games — but aside from a destruction by Ohio State early in the year they’ve played everyone close this year.
That continues in Happy Valley on Saturday.
Take the Hoosiers to cover.
Ohio State -50.5 at Rutgers, now Ohio State -52.5
Are you really going to take Ohio State to cover a 50+ point line?
Yes, yes I am.
Rutgers is 1-8 against the spread in their past nine games and Ohio State has won eight straight games against the spread.
I feel like Ohio State will score 65 here.
So do I feel like Rutgers will score over 14?
No, I don’t.
That means take the Buckeyes.
Minnesota at Iowa -3, now Iowa -3
Iowa has won four games in a row in this series, meaning that no Hawkeye player has ever lost to the Golden Gophers. This means that despite Minnesota’s ranking the Hawkeyes are going to expect to win.
Coming off of a huge win over Penn State now Minnesota rolls into an incredibly tough game on the road at Iowa. All they need to do is split Iowa and Wisconsin and they win the Big Ten West.
Which is why this feels like a perfect spot for an Iowa win and cover just to run the Golden Gopher boat aground.
Iowa this year’s pretty much what they always are, a tough gritty team that’s going to be a play a low scoring knife fight of a game.
Give me the Hawkeyes to win and cover.
UCLA +21 at Utah, now UCLA +21
Chip Kelly’s Bruins team is, believe it or not, still alive for the Pac 12 South crown.
In fact, if they won this game they’d be favored to advance to the Pac 12 title game.
Which is just insane given how this season started.
Meanwhile Utah is holding out hope of advancing to the college football playoff and is playing, for the first time in modern program history, with a great deal of pressure and attention on their back.
The Bruins are coming off three straight double digit wins over Stanford, Arizona State and Colorado. Plus, they’ve had a bye week to heal up for this game.
This number feels way too steep for me. Hop on the Chip Kelly train and enjoy the cover.
South Carolina at Texas A&M -10, now A&M -11
The Aggies had a bye last week while South Carolina slugged out a tough home loss to Appalachian State.
What’s more, this is an absolute must win game for Jimbo Fisher and A&M. The Aggies are sitting at 6-3, but they finish with two brutal road games back-to-back at Georgia and at LSU. Both of those figure to be losses.
Lose this game and the Aggies will finish 6-6 in year two for Jimbo and given how much they are paying him and the outsize expectations people in Aggieland will lose their minds.
Win this one and things won’t be great at A&M, but at least you can point to all five losses and say, “Well, we lost to five teams in the top 12 of the college football standings, what else could we do?”
South Carolina, on the other hand, is staggering in a big way.
Since beating Georgia on the road South Carolina has only beaten Vanderbilt and the Gamecocks are staring 4-8 squarely in the face.
I just don’t like this situation at all for the Gamecocks, who are walking into a hornet’s nest.
The Aggies win by two touchdowns or more.
Georgia at Auburn, the under 45.5, now 40.5
Wow, the bottom has completely fallen out of this line.
If you’re one of our Outkick VIPs and hopped on this line on Monday when I posted it on our VIP message board, I’d encourage you to think about a middle here, but if you’re getting the picks today, this is a tough number to play.
Surely with a week to prepare Gus Malzahn can manufacture some offense, right?
I still feel like the final score will be 21-17 — and my inclination is Auburn wins outright — but I like the under more than taking either side in this one. With this number sitting at three, I don’t want to sit through a late Georgia drive with the cover in the balance.
So hop on the under and enjoy a defensive struggle in the biggest game of the weekend.
Oklahoma at Baylor +10 and the over 67, now -10 and 67
This line seems crazy to me.
Oklahoma gets run by Kansas State and then barely hangs on to beat Iowa State and they’re a double digit favorite over an undefeated Baylor team on the road?
Just like last week when I told you Illinois being a fifteen point underdog at Michigan State made no sense, the same thing is true here.
I love the over here and I love the Bears to keep it a single digit game.
So cash a double winner this weekend on Baylor and the over.
Memphis at Houston, the over 69, now 69
In the last four games they’ve lost Houston has allowed 38, 38, 34 and 44.
Meanwhile Memphis has gone for 47, 42, and 54 in their last three games.
In fact, the last two Memphis games have hit totals of 83 and 102.
Hop on the over train and enjoy the ride.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt, the under 44
The Wildcats, who can’t throw the football at all, have hit on six straight unders.
Vanderbilt has hit the under on six of its past seven.
The only way this game goes over is if Vanderbilt quits on defense and I just don’t see the Wildcat offense being good enough for that to happen.
The under’s the play here as I think the final score will be something like 14-10.
In fact, I’m so confident in this game, tap the veins boys and girls, it’s my blood bank guarantee.
Florida -8 at Mizzou, now Florida -7
The Gators are rolling and Mizzou has fallen apart in its last three games on the road, posting a total of 21 points in three straight weeks.
I know Mizzou has been a different team at home compared to on the road, but Florida just seems to have hit its stride.
I think that continues in Columbia on Saturday.
Give me the Gators to win by ten.
Alabama at Mississippi State the under 63.5, now 63.5
A big part of gambling in college football is knowing the coaches.
Nick Saban’s defense just got gouged on Saturday, which had to drive him crazy. There’s no way he’s letting this game turn into a track meet.
With Tua nursing his injured ankle, I think Bama relies more on the ground game, breaking out Najee Harris like they did in the second half against LSU.
Meanwhile this Mississippi State offense has not been very good. (Don’t get confused by what you saw against Arkansas).
I am a bit leery, however, of the bye week for the Bulldogs here. Alabama just played an incredibly physical game against LSU and now has to go on the road and play a team whose entire season would be made by beating them.
The last time the Tide went to Starkville they were lucky to escape with a win.
This feels like a 38-17 style win for Bama, but it will be close early.
Hop on the under.
LSU at Ole Miss the over 64, now 65.5
LSU has scored at least 36 in every road game they’ve played this year.
I just don’t see any way possible that Ole Miss keeps LSU from at least 45 points.
So if I’m confident that LSU will score at least 45 do I think Ole Miss can score 21? I do. Remember, this Ole Miss team put up 31 on the road at Bama.
The over’s the play in Ed Oregeron’s return to Oxford.
There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 13-0 this week.
Respect the picks and remember, as always, shooters shoot.