Outkick's Gambling Picks For Week 12 2018

Last week we went 10-4 running our season total to 78-55 which is a 59% winning percentage for the Outkick picks on the year.

If anyone is actually fading the picks — as opposed to just Tweeting about fading them — they are getting absolutely demolished this year. In fact, fade the picks guy has virtually disappeared as we have ground him into total oblivion.

At 59% winners we’ve set an incredibly high standard through 11 weeks — if you hit 52% you win money accounting for the vig — and we are white hot as we come down the close of the college football regular season.

I'd love to get to 60% on the year which, honestly, is becoming difficult simply because we've picked so many games at this point our record doesn't move that much for individual wins or losses.

But we're incredibly close to that high goal so let's keep rolling.

I’ve got 15 more picks coming for you this weekend, which are, of course, going to go 15-0, but I also want to ask you to spend a small bit of the money you’ve won so far this year and buy my new book which is out in bookstores now, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too. It’s $16 right now on Amazon and if you don’t want the hardback book, you can buy the nine hour unabridged audio version I recorded myself. 

If you want an autographed copy — as many of you do — this is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks on Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.

It’s $99.

Stop being so cheap and sign up today.

All of our Outkick VIPs have now received their signed copies of the books. (And if you haven’t received your copy email support@outkickthecoverage.com and let them know your name and your address. We did have some signed copies of the book bounce back because addresses didn’t match).

The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.

So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.

Memphis -8 at SMU, now Memphis -9

Since the bye week after the Mizzou loss Memphis has won by 18 and 26 and just been dominating everyone on the schedule.

I think that continues against SMU on Friday night.

So jump on board and let's start the week off with another Tigers cover.

Indiana +28 at Michigan, now Indiana +28

Michigan has won 22 straight games in this series, but in the past three years, since Jim Harbaugh came to Ann Arbor, these have been the margins: 7, 10, and 7.

This means just about every player on Indiana knows the team can play with Michigan and is unlikely to be intimidated rolling into this game.

Now I know the easy thing to do here is bet on Michigan given the fact they've won nine games in a row -- and I'm not suggesting the Wolverines are going to lose this game -- but I do think Indiana will stay within the number. That's particularly the case when you consider that no one has beaten Indiana all year by 28. (Including respectable losses to Big Ten East foes Ohio State by 23, Penn State by 5, and Michigan State by 14.)

So here's a vote for the Hoosiers.

Even if most of their fans have already moved on to basketball season.

UMASS +44 at Georgia, now UMASS +43

Here's the truth -- Georgia doesn't care about this game AT ALL.

The Bulldogs have a simple goal -- stay healthy for Georgia Tech and Alabama in the SEC title game. That means I think we see a steady diet of Justin Fields once the Bulldogs get up big early.

What's more, UMASS has a decent offense which means you're unlikely to get a Bulldog shutout.

So what you're really betting on here is twofold: 1. will Georgia care about the final margin? I think the answer is no. and 2. will UMASS score at all? I think the answer is yes.

This game has 52-14 written all over it.

Which means we cover by nearly a touchdown.

MTSU +14 at Kentucky, under 45, now MTSU +16 and 46

Well, well, well, the past two weeks we have made a ton of money betting against the Kentucky Wildcats as they've tumbled back down to earth.

And I think that continues this weekend.

MTSU has won six of their past seven games.

What's more, this is their third game against an SEC opponent this year, meaning the team isn't likely to be overwhelmed by playing an SEC team. (Granted they've been beaten soundly by both Vanderbilt and Georgia, but both of those teams have better offenses than Kentucky.)

Do you know what Kentucky has scored on offense in October and November so far? 14, 14, 15, 17, and 7.

That's an average of 13.4 points per game.

Put simply, this Kentucky team can't score the football. Their offense is awful.

Which is why it's stunning to me that there's an expectation that suddenly Kentucky is going to show up for a noon kickoff after three straight emotionally exhausting games and score a ton of points.

I think this is a low scoring, ugly game that Kentucky might well lose outright.

One side wins 17-14, but if you've bet the under and taken MTSU with the points, it won't matter at all to you which side wins.

Cha ching.

Liberty +28.5 at Auburn, now Liberty +28

I could spend a ton of time writing about this massive Liberty vs. Auburn football game, but here's all you need to know, Auburn hasn't beaten a team by over 28 points since Arkansas back in September.

In fact, that's the only FBS team Auburn has beaten by over 28 points all season.

Wilder still, if you toss out the Alabama State game Auburn is averaging just 22.4 points per FBS game.

Last week Liberty scored 24 on Virginia and their offense has been decent all season.

But really, with a line this big, this is just a bet against Auburn's offense.

I don't think you can favor the Tigers by over four touchdowns on anyone in FBS football right now.

So let's go Flames!

Syracuse +9.5 vs. Notre Dame, over 61.5, now Syracuse +10 and 63

All Dino Babers does is cover.

Maybe Clemson, Alabama, and Notre Dame are all going to go undefeated and we'll roll into the playoff with three undefeated teams.

Maybe that's going to happen.

But do you know that so far we've never had more than one undefeated team in the college football playoff? Doesn't it seem like we're due for some college football playoff chaos?

Enter Syracuse.

I think this is the perfect team to give Notre Dame some problems, especially in a neutral New York City environment that feels a bit strange for both teams.

Syracuse has lost two games all season -- a narrow loss on the road against Clemson that the Orange arguably should have won and an overtime game against Pittsburgh, the team that almost beat Notre Dame.

Put simply, I think the Irish are in for a real battle this weekend and I think a spread of around ten points is insane.

Take 'Cuse and the over and sprinkle a bit of money on the Orange moneyline if you're feeling frisky.

UAB +15.5 at Texas A&M, now Texas A&M +17

I get accused all the time of being a blind SEC homer.

I don't think that's true -- I just appreciate excellence -- but if you look at the bets this weekend, there's a theme emerging -- fade the better team in games that don't matter that much to them.

A few years after they eliminated the football program UAB is 9-1 on the season and has experience winning.

The Aggies have been mediocre on the offensive side of the ball all season and I think that continues against UAB, which is why I'm taking UAB to cover here.

The Aggies whin, but over two touchdowns is too many points.

Arkansas +19.5 at Mississippi State, under 46, now Mississippi State -21, 46

Mississippi State is 6-4 and somehow ranked in the top 25.

Ain't life grand!

Meanwhile Arkansas is cruising towards a 2-10 finish, which would be the worst season in the history of Razorback football.

But here's something that many might have missed -- the Arkansas beat downs are becoming less severe.

Here's the Razorback margin of defeat since October, excluding Alabama: 7 to Texas A&M, 4 to Ole Miss, 14 to Vanderbilt, 7 to LSU.

Arkansas isn't good, but they have managed to be somewhat competitive in these games, losing by an average of eight points in SEC play excluding Alabama.

What's more when they have played against a team with a good defense, Alabama excepted, they have typically played low scoring, competitive games, losing 24-17 to A&M and 24-17 to LSU.

That's the kind of game I believe we'll see again, except I believe Mississippi State will win a bit easier, 31-14 in Starkville.

Which means, rejoice, you hit the under and you get your cover.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State +5.5, now Oklahoma State +4.5

Oklahoma State is one of the most unpredictable teams in all of college football so far this season.

They've been good enough to beat Texas and nearly Oklahoma and yet also bad enough to get blown out by Kansas State.

I think they play an outstanding game at home and find a way to keep this one close.

West Virginia wins by a late field goal.

Kansas +36.5 at Oklahoma, over 68.5, now Kansas +36, 69

Yes, I'm just crazy enough to bet on Kansas against Oklahoma.

Here's my rationale: first, no one is betting on Kansas but me. I kind of like that. Second, here are the margins of defeat for Kansas in the Big 12 this season: 19, 20, 16, 22, 24, and 4. Also Kansas beat TCU by a point.

So if Oklahoma obliterates Kansas, which may happen, they will need to be 12.5 points better than anyone has been against them all season in the Big 12.

Could that happen, certainly, but does it seem likely? Not to me.

Finally, Oklahoma's defense is a disaster right now and that makes covering the 36.5 extremely difficult. If you're going to win by 37 you need to effectively shut down your opponent.

I just don't see Oklahoma completely shutting down Kansas. (Or anyone for that matter).

So give me the Jayhawks and the over.

Vandy-Ole Miss, over 66, now 67

Vanderbilt has a pretty damn good scoring offense and the defense has been exploited by everyone they've played in the SEC except for Kentucky.

In the SEC so far this season, leaving out the awful Kentucky offense, Vandy has given up 37, 41, 37, 31 and 33. That's an average of 35.8 points per game.

Meanwhile Ole Miss has no defense and has also given up 62, 45, 33, 31, 48, and 38 in the SEC this year. That's an average of 42.8 points per SEC game.

So I'm thinking Vandy wins this game 42-35.

Simple math tells me that's way more than 66 or 67 points.

Which is why, tap the vein boys and girls, this game is my blood bank guarantee for the week.

...

Get rich, kids, we're going 15-0 this week.