As we enter the month of October this weekend, let’s reflect for just a moment on the incredible September we had with the OutKick College Football Gambling Picks: we had four straight winning weeks of picks, finishing September at 28-15 on the month, for a robust 65% winning percentage.
That’s despite the fact that we got burned on two late games last week — Florida scored with 1:30 left after not covering for the first 58:30 of the game, and then Tennessee’s Joe Milton came in and airmailed two goal-line throws out of the end zone to snuff out a backdoor cover opportunity all while Josh Heupel elected not to use his timeouts to give us four chances at a score — and then Michigan State nearly scored twice in overtime to give us the cover too. But we lost both of those games, as well as Notre Dame somehow scoring 31 points in the fourth quarter to keep us from hitting the under and posting our best week of the year.
Now I’m gonna be honest with you guys, I absolutely love this week’s slate of games. I mean, it’s absolutely phenomenal. I feel like we’re about to have our best week yet.
But before I give you 13 winners, get your bets in alongside me for all the games this weekend. For new users you get up to a $1000 no risk wager.
Okay, here we go:
Michigan at Wisconsin, the under 43.5
This line is fascinating because Wisconsin opened as the favorite and everyone has come rushing in to bet Michigan. I think predicting what will happen in this game in terms of a winner is a coin flip, but the actual offense on the field?
It’s a plodding, pedestrian, ‘three yards and a cloud of dust’ style game.
Which is why I love the under here.
The only way I see this game going over is if the teams give up multiple defensive and special teams scores. (Wisconsin gave Notre Dame 21 points on defense and special teams last week, which is how the over hit.)
So root for no defensive or special teams scores, and you’ll win this game with ease.
The under’s the play.
Arkansas +19 at Georgia
I’ve watched the Razorbacks and Bulldogs for the past four weeks, and I just don’t see how this defense is going to get shredded by this Georgia offense.
Now could the Arkansas offense, particularly with an unhealthy quarterback, get completely stifled by this Georgia defense? Of course. But I just don’t think the Razorback defense is going to let this game get out of hand.
What Vegas is telling you with this line — and with the Ole Miss-Bama line — is that there’s a massive difference between Alabama and Georgia and everyone else in the SEC. But I’ve just watched too many SEC football games over the years to buy into the idea that an Arkansas team that’s good enough to whip Texas and Texas A&M by double digits is going to fall flat on its face come Saturday in Athens.
Yes, the Razorbacks are coming off a big win, but I still feel like they’re the team with something to prove here.
Which is why I love Arkansas to cover the big number here.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame +2.5
The Bearcats are potentially playing the biggest game in the history of their program on the road at Notre Dame. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are an underdog coming off a big neutral site win as an underdog.
As a general rule, I love home underdogs in a big game because they get the benefit of the home field advantage without any of the pressure of the big game. Here, Notre Dame is expected to lose and Cincinnati is expected to win. I think that factors in psychologically.
So give me the Fighting Irish to win outright as a home underdog. But just for good measure, I’ll take a couple of points too.
Ole Miss +14.5 at Alabama
We will be at this game with the OutKick bus tour. You can come hang with us at the Innisfree Pub in Tuscaloosa, and I guarantee you we will have an incredible time getting ready for the game on Saturday.
And gamblers who take Ole Miss will have an incredible time as well.
This line is just way too high.
Ole Miss has had two weeks to get ready for Alabama, and we know Lane Kiffin picked apart their defense last year in Oxford. This year, Ole Miss is even better than they were last year and the over/under is all the way out to eighty, which feels wild to me, but it wouldn’t surprise me if both teams put up forty.
Ultimately, however, I’ll be stunned if Ole Miss doesn’t keep this game within two touchdowns and cover with ease.
In fact, I think the Rebels just might pull off the upset here.
Ohio State at Rutgers +15.5
The Buckeyes, I believe, are the most overvalued team in the Big Ten this year.
I’m not sure this defense deserves to be favored by over two touchdowns over anyone on the Big Ten schedule, especially on the road. No, not even Rutgers.
So, yes, I’m climbing aboard the Greg Schiano express to cover this weekend. (Money has no loyalties.)
Go Scarlet Knights!
Oregon at Stanford +8.5
I fully expect Stanford to pull off the outright upset, and I love that the money has come in now to give me over a touchdown in this one.
Over the past ten years, this series is evenly split 5-5.
Even when no one else in the Pac-12 could manage to keep pace with the Chip Kelly Ducks, Stanford and David Shaw were able to do so.
I think that continues on Saturday when Stanford gives Oregon fits.
An outright upset wouldn’t surprise me, but Stanford plus the points? Cha ching, baby.
Oklahoma at Kansas State +10.5
I believe Vegas linemakers continue to wildly overvalue three teams: Ohio State, Oregon, and Oklahoma.
I don’t see how anyone could have watched the Sooners this year and feel comfortable taking them as double-digit road favorites against any decent team.
So far this year, Oklahoma has beaten Tulane by five, Nebraska by seven, and West Virginia by three. And all of those games were at home. And now you’re telling me they’re going to go on the road in Manhattan, Kansas — a place where they lost outright two years ago — and win by 11 or more?
I just don’t see it.
Give me Kansas State to cover the number and potentially pull off the upset too.
Vols +3 at Mizzou and the over 65
Josh Heupel returns to his old stomping grounds in Columbia and attempts to win his first SEC game as a head coach. Mizzou, meanwhile, hasn’t been very good in Eli Drinkwitz’s second season, beating Central Michigan by ten, losing to Kentucky by seven, and coming off a road loss to Boston College.
Here’s what I feel confident about: points will be scored in abundance. I think each team goes for thirty, and I like the chances that Heupel has a good homecoming. Yes, I’m predicting a Vols outright win, but I’ll keep the three points in my pocket in the meantime and also enjoy the points raining down in abundance.
Florida at Kentucky, the under 55.5
Kentucky’s offense is nonexistent right now, and I think they would struggle to keep pace in a track meet with a more skilled Gator offense.
So I believe the Wildcats take the air out of this game and try to play it in the twenties. This feels, to me, like a 28-17 Gators win.
If I’m right, you hit the under by a full ten points.
(Spoiler alert: I’m going to be right.)
Boston College +15.5 at Clemson
I’m betting against Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Clemson this weekend because all of them feel wildly overvalued to me — especially since three of these teams are on the road as major favorites.
I understand the Vegas oddsmakers believe those teams have a different caliber of talent than their opponents. But at some point, don’t you have to prove it? Clemson is 0-3 against the spread vs. FBS opponents so far this year. They’ve lost two of those games outright as favorites, including last week as a double-digit favorite at NC State.
Why is this happening? Because the Clemson offense just can’t score.
So why would I believe they’re going to suddenly win by over two touchdowns against an undefeated team playing with great confidence?
I just don’t see Clemson covering at all.
Give me the Eagles on the road to keep it a single-digit game.
Auburn at LSU -3.5
Speaking of bad offenses, Auburn doesn’t have a quarterback.
And they never win at LSU.
In fact, Auburn has not won in Baton Rouge since 1999.
At some point that will probably change, but it won’t be this year.
LSU by a touchdown.
Mississippi State +7.5 at Texas A&M
I’m taking a ton of underdogs this week because I think the favorites are way overvalued.
This Aggie offense can’t score.
And Mississippi State isn’t awful on defense. That’s a bad combination, especially with this being a trap game of sorts for the Aggies. They’re coming off a big game against Arkansas, and they’ve got a big game against Alabama next week.
Now we’re dropping the Bulldogs right in the middle here?
I like Mike Leach’s team to get the cover in Aggieland.
There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 13-0 this week. (Or at least posting our fifth straight winning week of picks.)
Let’s get rich, kids.