Videos by OutKick
I’m down here in sunny Florida doing my best to survive Joe Biden’s winter of death.
So far things are going pretty well.
Last week Santa Clay came to town and gave you a blood bank guarantee winner in 49ers-Titans and we went 5-2 overall in our NFL picks, running the Outkick Six Pack, plus one, last week to a season total of 54-38. That’s a 59% winning percentage on the year.
Our college picks, however, have not been as strong, we’ve gone 75-79 on the year. That’s simply unacceptable.
But all that changes this week with the college football bowl picks.
Here we go with ten winners for all of you. Get your bets in, with a $1000 no risk wager for first time gamblers, by clicking here:
South Carolina +9.5 vs. North Carolina
Bowl games often come down to motivation, that is, who wants to be there the most? South Carolina is absolutely ecstatic to be playing this game and North Carolina is disappointed in how their season went to be playing in this game.
Advantage: South Carolina.
Which is all I need to know to give me the Gamecocks as a big underdog here to cover and maybe steal this game late.
Purdue vs. Tennessee -5
Motivation matters in bowl games, but so too can home crowds.
Tennessee is playing in the Music City Bowl in Nashville, which will basically turn into Neyland Stadium West. The Vols are ecstatic to be back in a bowl game and their fans will show out in massive numbers, providing a major jolt of intensity, and probably the biggest fan advantage of any bowl game this year.
Toss in the fact that a couple of Purdue’s best players have opted out and that Josh Heupel has had a month to prepare for Purdue and that this will be Hendon Hooker’s advertisement for what should be a stellar 2022 campaign and I see Tennessee rolling here, especially early in the game.
The Vols win by double digits and cover easily. And if you want to get really aggressive, I’d play the first half line here too because Heupel’s out of the gates offense has been electric many times this season.
Cincinnati vs. Alabama -13
Nick Saban has somehow convinced Alabama that they are the underdog in this game and that everyone is disrespecting them.
I have no idea how he managed to pull off this wizardry, but the Crimson Tide really believes it. There may have been some truth to the disrespect in the SEC title game against Georgia, but Bama is nearly a two touchdown favorite against Cincinnati.
Alabama’s goliath, but thinks they’re David.
With weeks to prepare against a team of inferior talent, I like Nick Saban, who is now 8-3 in college football playoff games, to win and cover against Cincinnati. Remember, Saban has only lost one first round playoff game ever — against Ohio State in year one of the playoff — and the Tide typically dominates these games when Saban’s staff has this long to prepare.
That continues on Friday afternoon.
The Tide rolls and wins by over twenty.
Georgia -7.5 vs. Michigan, and the under 45.5
Georgia’s defense was embarrassed against Alabama in the SEC championship game. By the time this playoff game kicks off they will have had nearly a month to marinate on these defensive failures.
Which is why I think Michigan will pay the price for the Bulldog collapse in the SEC title game.
Unlike Alabama Michigan isn’t dynamic at the quarterback position and that means this game comes down to a battle in the trenches over who can run the ball better. That favors the Georgia defensive line, which will win the majority of the battles on the line, eventually stifling the Michigan offense in the process.
Jim Harbaugh had a great year and Michigan deserves commendation for playing — aside from the final twenty minutes at Michigan State — one of the best seasons of any Big Ten team in recent memory.
But the Bulldogs match up well for what Michigan does well.
And I think Georgia will do it better than Michigan can.
Georgia wins 27-14, meaning you hit the Bulldog cover and the under for a double gambling win.
Arkansas -1 vs. Penn State and the under 48.5
The Razorbacks are ecstatic to be in this game and I feel like the Nittany Lions are disappointed about how their season ended.
Arkansas is still overachieving in year two of Sam Pittman’s regime.
Put those motivations in a blender and mix them all up and Arkansas wins a close game 21-17, meaning you get the Razorback cover and the under hits.
Kentucky vs. Iowa, the under 44
The Iowa offense is a disaster and their defense is stout.
Meanwhile the Kentucky offense is fairly decent, at least down the stretch, and their defense has been, at times, very good.
So what happens in this one? Both defenses dominate.
Which is why the under is, get ready for it, my blood bank guarantee for the bowl season.
Get rich, kids, tap the veins and take the under.
Utah +4.5 vs. Ohio State
Motivation, motivation, motivation.
Utah is ecstatic to be playing in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State doesn’t care about this game at all and is dealing with a substantial number of opt outs.
This would be the biggest win of Kyle Whittingham’s coaching career and I think his team doesn’t just keep it close, I think they win this game outright.
The Michigan game hangover is real for the Buckeyes, take Utah to cover and win outright if you want to sprinkle some money on the money line.
Baylor vs. Ole Miss, the over 55.5
Raise your hand if you had the Sugar Bowl back in the preseason as Baylor vs. Ole Miss.
What an improbable match up this is.
I like Lane Kiffin’s chances to get the Rebels to 11 wins, but I love the over in this game even more than that.
Kick your feet up and enjoy the points extravaganza as the over hits with ease to help you deal with the hangover from New Year’s Eve.
Here are my Outkick Six Pack of NFL winners as well:
Falcons at Bills over 44.5
Eagles at WFT +3.5
Chiefs at Bengals +5.5
Dolphins at Titans, the under 41
Rams -3.5 at Ravens
Vikings at Packers, the over 47.5