Outkick's Week Two 2014 Picks
Outkick's picks went 6-2 in week one, which is such an impressive debut that I almost want to retire for the season and bank my 75% winning percentage. Especially after we lost the first game on the slate, taking the under in the Texas A&M game at South Carolina. The amount of derision and vitriol that pick provoked was uncanny on Twitter. You guys roasted me. (Albeit generally in a pretty funny way). Yet, miraculously, as we went 6-1 over the ensuing seven games the praise didn't equal the derision. I'm trying to make you guys rich. The least you can do is doff your Twitter caps when we get on a roll.
Will the roll continue? We'll see. I've got seven games this weekend:
Florida Atlantic at Alabama -40
Nebraska put up 498 yards rushing against FAU. How do you think T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry will do against that defense? Combine that FAU rushing defense with the fact that Nick Saban's furious with the way his secondary played against West Virginia and we're talking abut a bloodbath in Tuscaloosa. FAU will not score. Alabama will score a ton.
The Tide's going to roll, big.
Arkansas State at Tennessee -16
I believe in Justin Worley. So much so that I'm now angry at Derek Dooley for burning Worley's freshman season to bring him in to hand off at Alabama. You remember that disaster? You have Matt Simms perfectly able to play quarterback for the rest of the season and Dooley burns Worley's redshirt in late October of a blowout game in a wasted season. The next year Worley attempts 15 passes to burn his sophomore season. You really telling me Dooley couldn't have been saved one of those two years? If he hadn't wasted two seasons then 2015 would be an SEC east title contention year for the Vols with Worley at quarterback. Instead, we'll have to make money off Worley before Vegas realizes how good this Tennessee offense can be at the helm. Trust the quarterback. This line is too low right now, Vols win by three touchdowns.
Missouri -4.5 at Toledo
I know Missouri didn't look good in its opener, but we're talking about Toledo here. If Mizzou loses to Toledo it's officially time to hit the panic button on the season. And I don't think it's officially time to hit the panic button on the season. Sure, Toledo put up big numbers, but that was against New Hampshire.
The bigger question is, who in the world set up a home and home with Toledo? How does a game like this even happen? What benefit is there to Mizzou playing it at all? I don't care if Gary Pinkel used to coach at Toledo, so what? This is a mess of a game. But the line's still too low.
USC at Stanford -2.5
The toughest game to pick on the schedule this week. I'm going with Stanford even though I have USC ranked higher in my Outkick top ten. USC was outstanding in their opener against Fresno State, one of the five most impressive debuts of any team this year. So why am I going with Stanford? Because I trust in David Shaw. Shaw's the most underrated coach in college football and you can't pick against the two-time defending Pac 12 champs at home when the line is less than a field goal. You just can't.
Ohio +13 at Kentucky
I know, I know, Kentucky looked great against UT-Martin. But you know who else would look great against UT-Martin? Your high school team. This is a classic line overreaction. Kentucky beats an FCS team, Ohio struggles to put away Kent State on the road while turning the ball over four times. I think Kentucky wins this game, but it's going to be tight down the stretch. Ohio's the play.
Vandy +20 vs. Ole Miss
Before Derek Mason posted one of the worst head coaching debuts in the modern era of college football, this line would have been Ole Miss by four or five points. Now it's all the way out to twenty. That's way too many points considering Mason has made a living stifling spread offensive attacks like Ole Miss's. Toss in the fact that Bo Wallace is the most inconsistent starting quarterback on a top 15 caliber team and this one will be tighter than most are expecting. I don't think Vandy will win because I don't believe the Commodore offense can score, but I do believe this one will be ugly and low scoring, making it difficult for Ole Miss to win by three touchdowns or more.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but take the 'Dores.
Michigan State +13 at Oregon
Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi has been working on a game plan for Oregon for months. Contrast that with the fact that Oregon is 34-2 at Autzen Stadium since 2009. Both of those losses were by three points. But here's the deal, we don't have to win this game, we just have to cover.
Michigan State will cover.
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Okay, there are your weekly picks. 7-0 here we come!