Outkick's Week Five 2014 Gambling Picks

It's Wednesday, which means it's time for me to make y'all rich with the Outkick picks of the week. Last week we went 6-5, running our record on the season out to a robust 18-16. That's a 53% success rate. That's how we do it in these parts, bang!

We had a decent day going at 6-3 until I took a double loss on the Oregon at Washington State game. It looked like the over was in the bag, but then the third quarter slowed down and Washington State got jobbed on a pass interference call on what may have well been a late touchdown drive.

Anyway, contrary to what William Faulkner wrote, the past is past and like my grandma always said, it's time to get rich or die trying.

Here we go with nine picks for the weekend:

UCLA -3.5 at Arizona State and the over at 59.5

What's the best way to get over getting doubly burned on the final Pac 12 game of Saturday night? By betting the exact same thing on the first Pac 12 game on Thursday night. 

This is basically science. 

Don't mess with it. 

In all seriousness, UCLA has played like garbage all season, but the Bruins have managed to win every game. Meanwhile Arizona State has an evil genius head coach in Todd Graham. Each team has had nearly two weeks to get ready which means offensive and defensive wrinkles will predominate.  The defenses will both fail here, which means points will flow forth like mighty geysers on ancient islands. This is a bad simile. And no, Alabama fans, I didn't just misspell smile. 

Baylor -21 at Iowa State

Here's the deal, I'm going to bet on Baylor to cover no matter what the line is. 

Moving right along. 

Vandy +17 at Kentucky

Last week Vandy covered against South Carolina and we won that bet. As bad as the Commodores are, they're rapidly becoming my favorite team to bet on because Vegas now believes they are one of the worst teams in the history of the SEC. That's not true. They only have one of the worst coaching staffs in the history of the SEC.

This week you have to ask yourself an interesting question, can you ever bet on Kentucky to win any SEC game by 18 points? Because that's what you have to do to win this bet. Sure, it might happen. But if it doesn't happen how stupid are you going to feel needing Kentucky to win an SEC game by 18 points? That's happened once in the past 11 years. Kentucky hasn't won an SEC game by more than 18 points since 2003. (In what has to be an all-time low for State football fans, they beat Mississippi State 42-7 that year). 

Especially in a rivalry game! Seriously, if you want to feel depressed in your life go read the Wikipedia page about the Vandy-Kentucky football rivalry. I want to make fun of this rivalry, but I've seen all these games. Which means I really am wasting my life away. Vandy has outscored Kentucky 100-14 in the last three seasons. I know James Franklin and his staff are gone, but an awful lot of players who were part of those games are still playing. The line opened here at 10.5 and immediately surged upwards. I think that's dumb money still reacting to the close call at Florida and still voting Vandy down based on the new coaching staff. Did you watch Florida play against Alabama? The Gators are awful.  

Take the Dores here. (And if you want to make up some ground on your bets this season, take the Dores on the money line. It's at +575. That's way too high as well.)

Louisiana Tech at Auburn -32.5

There are only two certainties in life: a. Gus Malzahn is going to dress like a dad on the sideline and b. he's going to cover. 

Mizzou +6 at South Carolina

This is a really tough game to call. Because I don't want to believe that South Carolina is a very good football team, but I also don't want to bet on a team that just lost at home to a Big Ten opponent. Ultimately I just keep coming back to the fact that there isn't much of a difference between these two teams. So if I don't think there's much of a difference between these two teams, I have to take Mizzou +6, right?

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas +9

Speaking of a game that's hard as hell to bet, the Arkansas-A&M line has come crashing down from A&M -15.5 to A&M -9. And here's the deal, I still think Arkansas is the play here. Not because I necessariiy think the Razorbacks are going to win, but just because this is not a team that A&M matches up well with on defense. Meanwhile, I also don't think Arkansas will be able to stop A&M. 

Ultimately I think A&M wins 38-35. But take the Hogs to cover. (I'm tempted o the over here as well, but it's already 70 points. That's steep).  

Tennessee at Georgia -17

Here's the deal, Tennessee's offensive line is going to get destroyed at Georgia. I mean, totally obliterated. There will be games this year where Tennessee is capable of pulling off the upset. Those games will be at home. Not on the road at Georgia against the best team in the SEC east. The line's steep, but it should be steeper. The Dogs win by three touchdowns or more. 

Memphis at Ole Miss -19 and the over at 56.5

I know, I know, it's a trap game. But you know what happens sometimes when we all expect a trap game? The line gets bet down too far. This game opened at Ole Miss -24. It's now down to 19. Do you really think Ole Miss is going to lose the week before Alabama? Stop nodding your heads yes, Ole Miss fans.

The Rebels win by three touchdowns.