I kept telling you guys that if you hung with me we’d have a blockbuster week. Well, at long last we did. 8-2! I’m hopeful that this bounce back performance will help some of you move back into your homes from the tents and park benches you’ve been sleeping in for the past couple of weeks. Also, apologies to those of you who rode with me through our 3-17 stretch and then decided to go against me when I got this thing turned back in the right direction. If you faded me after riding with me, you are now 5-25 in your last 30 bets. That’s almost impossible to pull off.
Even after a 3-17 stretch that left me wondering whether I should pull a George Costanza and just start betting the opposite of what I actually thought, we’re now 39-44 on the year. That’s not good, but we’re just one good week away from being right back in the money, baby.
So here we go with this week’s ten picks.
FSU -3.5 at Louisville
Confession, I took Louisville +6 on Monday, but I don’t feel as good about Louisville +3.5 as I did about Louisville +6. Had I been quicker on the gambling draw I could have gotten Louisville worth over a touchdown. I would have loved that because Bobby Petrino with time to prepare is really, really tough to beat. The simple fact is FSU hasn’t been very good on the field this year. The offense and defense have both been mediocre against even more mediocre competition. In fact, the off the field attention has probably served to help camouflage how average FSU has been.
But FSU is like the villain that won’t die. Deep down to I really think FSU’s streak of unbeaten games is going to come to an end at Louisville?
No, I don’t.
It’s going to come to an end in the playoff when Alabama beats them by thirty.
Auburn +2.5 at Ole Miss
Here’s the simple truth: I think Auburn is better than Ole Miss. In fact, I still think Auburn is better than Mississippi State too. Take away the awful start against State and Auburn would have won that game on the road. I don’t think Auburn will have an awful start against Ole Miss. So I’d take the Tigers to cover and win straight up as well.
The Tigers are just better.
Kansas at Baylor -35
Kansas lost to Duke by 38 and Texas by 23. The Jayhawks scored a combined three points in both these games.
And now they have to play Baylor, which hasn’t played since two weeks ago when they played an awful game and got run by West Virginia?
Kentucky +7 at Missouri
Here’s the deal, Mizzou isn’t a touchdown better than Kentucky. They just aren’t. I think Mizzou will most likely win this game, but Kentucky’s got a talented quarterback and plays hard on defense for Mark Stoops. The one drubbing they’ve taken all year — at LSU — wasn’t as bad statistically as the score would indicate. I may be the only person on earth without a son on either team who streamed every snap of Vandy at Mizzou. It was an atrocious football game. I’m not sure Mizzou would have beaten any other SEC team that day.
Give me the Cats.
Arkansas +11 at Mississippi State
Mississippi State is a very good football team, but Arkansas will shorten the game and make it ugly. Plus, how healthy is Dak Prescott going to be? He had real issues with mobility late against Kentucky. I don’t think the Razorbacks will win — at this point picking the Razorbacks to win an SEC game is crazier than betting on an asteroid to hit earth — but I do think this will be a single digit game. I love getting this one at 10+ because I think something like 34-27 is probably the most likely outcome.
Florida vs. Georgia the under of 51
What is Florida’s only hope to win this game? To take the air out of the football game and keep it incredibly low scoring, right? I’ve been to a ton of these Cocktail Party games when Georgia was superior to Florida and still found a way to lose. So while I think Georgia’s going to win, I think 13-14 points is too much to give up.
That’s why the under is the play here. I see Georgia winnning an ugly game something like 21-9.
By the way, doesn’t the rest of the SEC want Muschamp to win this game and keep his job at Florida?
Arizona +6.5 at UCLA
The Wildcats already have the most impressive road win of the season at Oregon and now they’re going on the road at UCLA as nearly a touchdown underdog. Has anyone else seen UCLA play this season? Other than the total destruction they unleashed upon Arizona State, the Bruins have been a very average football team all year.
Why do I think that’s going to suddenly change against Arizona? The Wildcats are the play here. And if you need a little extra coin, think about the money line Arizona to win play as well.
TCU at WVU the over of 71.5
Get ready to lose your homes because this is the bet your mortgage pick of the week. TCU just scored 82 to cover the over/under by themselves last week. Now they’re going up against West Virginia, which wants to throw the football all over the place, and has given up over 27 to every decent team they’ve played.
How is the over/under only 71.5?
It should be 101.5.
The game is going to last forever and the points are going to rain down. The over will be covered by the end of the third quarter. Like my grandma always said, “Get rich or die trying.”
Tennessee +7.5 at South Carolina
South Carolina has a good offense and an awful defense, Tennessee has a good defense and an awful offense. So what happens when these mirror image teams meet each other?
I think it will look something like the Missouri game, an ugly contest with Tennessee having a chance to win late.
Take the Vols +7.5.