Outkick’s NFL Gambling Picks

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Dec 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) during the first half against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

I’m going to be honest with y’all, I took a big hit when Clemson and the over hit in the college football title game. I had Alabama -6.5 and the under and for about 40 minutes I was golden. So golden, in fact, that I actually thought about hedging at halftime when I had a pretty big middle. 

At halftime Bama led 14-7 and I turned to the producer on my radio show, Jason Martin, and asked him whether or not I should hedge. He doesn’t gamble, but he advised me against it so I didn’t hedge and as a result I finished off the 2016 college football gambling season on a losing note. 

Sure, we still won 58% of our games, but it’s time to get back on the winning track in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. 

So here we go with five winning picks:

Seahawks at the Falcons, -4.5 and the over 51

Texans at Patriots -15.5

Steelers at the Chiefs -1.5

Packers +4.5 at the Cowboys.

Get rich, kids. 


After all four road teams won in last year’s Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs, the home teams got revenge and swept the board last weekend in impressive fashion with four double-digits wins. Now the big question is, will any of the four visitors upset the home favorites in the Divisional Round, with three of the games seeing point spreads of less than five points? Each of them are rematches of regular-season meetings, so find out who will advance this weekend:

Seahawks at Falcons (-4.5) (Sat, 4:35 p.m. ET) Matchup Report

Seattle edged Atlanta 26-24 as a 6.5-point home favorite in Week 6, but the team did not have running back Thomas Rawls in that first meeting. Rawls rushed for a team playoff-record 161 yards last Saturday in a 26-6 rout of the Detroit Lions, nearly half of what he totaled in nine games during the regular season. The Falcons nearly pulled off the upset then and will be hard-pressed to avoid being upset here in this spot because they are just 1-4 against the spread in the past five home meetings with the Seahawks.

Texans at Patriots (-16) (Sat, 8:15 p.m. ET) Matchup Report

New England blanked Houston 27-0 back in Week 3 with rookie third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett starting, so you can understand why the team is such an enormous favorite with Tom Brady back under center here. The Texans were a mess offensively then due to the struggles of Brock Osweiler and will be again versus the Patriots this time around, as they have lost each of the last five meetings and gone 1-6 ATS in the previous seven games between the teams.

Steelers at Chiefs (-1.5) (Sun, 1:05 p.m. ET) Matchup Report

Fans of both teams probably think it is a shame that this is not the AFC Championship Game since each of them are worthy of a Super Bowl appearance. Instead, the winner will likely head to New England next week as a solid underdog. Kansas City was smoked by Pittsburgh 43-14 as a 3.5-point road underdog in Week 6 and will find it very difficult to stop quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown after how they performed last week. The Steelers will beat the Chiefs for the fifth time in six meetings.

Packers at Cowboys (-4.5) (Sun, 4:40 p.m. ET)“ Matchup Report

Green Bay is one of two teams riding a seven-game winning streak right now (New England is the other), and only Pittsburgh is hotter with eight straight victories. The last team to defeat the Steelers was Dallas, and the Packers also lost to the Cowboys 30-16 at home in Week 6. Look for home-field advantage to be the difference for Dallas, as Green Bay has lost in nine of its last 10 trips there. Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott will lead the Cowboys to another cover.

Written by Clay Travis

Clay Travis is the founder of the fastest growing national multimedia platform, OutKick, that produces and distributes engaging content across sports and pop culture to millions of fans across the country. OutKick was created by Travis in 2011 and sold to the Fox Corporation in 2021.

One of the most electrifying and outspoken personalities in the industry, Travis hosts OutKick The Show where he provides his unfiltered opinion on the most compelling headlines throughout sports, culture, and politics. He also makes regular appearances on FOX News Media as a contributor providing analysis on a variety of subjects ranging from sports news to the cultural landscape. Throughout the college football season, Travis is on Big Noon Kickoff for Fox Sports breaking down the game and the latest storylines.

Additionally, Travis serves as a co-host of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, a three-hour conservative radio talk program syndicated across Premiere Networks radio stations nationwide.

Previously, he launched OutKick The Coverage on Fox Sports Radio that included interviews and listener interactions and was on Fox Sports Bet for four years. Additionally, Travis started an iHeartRadio Original Podcast called Wins & Losses that featured in-depth conversations with the biggest names in sports.

Travis is a graduate of George Washington University as well as Vanderbilt Law School. Based in Nashville, he is the author of Dixieland Delight, On Rocky Top, and Republicans Buy Sneakers Too.