I’m a humble guy. Not one to brag when I’m right, gloating has never been my style. I just kind of quietly accept my successes and hope no one notices.
So believe me when I say this.
IT’S VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOMEONE TO HAVE A BETTER WEEK OF GAMBLING THAN I DID LAST WEEK.
I thought when I started week one of this college football season 11-3 that I wouldn’t be able to surpass it, potentially ever. Then, lo and behold, we went 14-3 this past weekend.
I’m making it rain everywhere. Outkick is close to bankrupting Vegas. Steve Wynn? He was crying himself to sleep last Saturday night. He’s going to have to sell a Picasso.
Outkick’s picks are now a scintillating 40-21 on the year, nearly a 66% winning percentage.
We’ve had a winning record in four of our five weeks. This past week I told y’all on Twitter all week to load up on the unders due to the rain. I was like Jim Fucking Cantore, constantly refreshing the weather forecasts and in disbelief that the lines weren’t moving more. In addition to my picks earlier in the week, I kept telling y’all on Twitter to take the unders in Bama-Georgia, FSU at Wake Forest, Notre Dame at Clemson and Arkansas at Tennessee.
Guess what happened? All four unders won. Couple that with our 10-3 on last week’s picks and we were singing in the rain.
Anyway, here we go.
The only way to improve on 14-3?
By going 13-0 this week.
Oklahoma -17 vs. Texas
Some people say, you have to toss the record books out when you play a big rivalry game. Here’s what I’m tossing out instead: Texas sucks. And Oklahoma is good.
What do good teams do to teams that suck?
They crush them.
Oklahoma is going to crush Texas.
Maryland +33.5 at Ohio State
I may be the only person in America betting on Maryland here, but I’m not willing to bet Ohio State +33.5 against anyone right now. All I need is for Maryland to score a touchdown and I think I cover here. Just one freaking touchdown, Terps, can you do this for me?
You might want to wait on this line too, because I think the public will probably continue to push this line as kickoff nears. You might be able to get Ohio State -35.
Which is just crazy.
Remember, crab cakes and football, it’s what Maryland does.
Arkansas +16.5 at Alabama and the under of 50
Here’s the deal, 16.5 is way too many points for this game. Arkansas is going to try and run the ball and shorten this game, Alabama will likely revert to average at the quarterback position, meaning this game is going to be low scoring and field position driven.
For the first time all season Arkansas is playing with no pressure on them, everyone just assumes they’re going to get smoked and no one will judge them if it happens.
After the win in Knoxville Bret Bielema’s blood pressure probably dropped 100 points.
I see the Tide winning something like 24-13. But that’s an easy cover and an easy under.
UMASS at Bowling Green -13
Bowling Green totally screwed us last week. Up 28-9 at Buffalo in the fourth quarter I thought we had Bowling Green -8 in the bag. Then Buffalo allowed 13 unanswered and we lost the cover.
Forunately, this week will be a bloodbath.
UMASS can’t stop anyone on defense and they’re running into Matt Johnson, who is the MAC daddy.
Look out, easy cover.
Baylor -44 at Kansas
I really think Baylor might score 80 points this week. This would mean Kansas, who is on the way to 0-12, has to score 36 to push.
I bet this number at 41.5 and I’m still telling you guys to take it at 44. Baylor is that good and Kansas is that bad.
Get rich, go Bears.
Georgia -2.5 at Tennessee
All of the smart money is on Tennessee in this game. Here’s the problem with the smart money, one team likes their head coach, that’s Georgia, and the other team hates their head coach, that’s Tennessee. So which team is more likely to perform well this week? I think it’s Georgia.
Mind you, I don’t think there’s much difference in talent in this game. Tennessee has played Georgia well the past four years, all losses by eight points or less, and the last time these two teams played in Neyland it went to overtime. The problem is, the closeness of those games are already priced into this line.
Tennessee’s loss to Arkansas was a really, really bad loss. It told me this team has quit on Butch Jones. Next stop, 2-5 and headed to Lexington for a game that could spell doom for Jones.
“Look out, Butch is writing your name and putting it in his back pocket, Clay!” (Fortunately, Butch is misspelling my name and getting the pants beat off of him).
In a battle of Butch’d vs. Georgia’d, a Butch’d is coming.
MTSU at Western Kentucky -8
In a regional battle that the vast majority of you have no idea is happening, Western is hosting MTSU. Did you know Western is a three point loss at Indiana — yep, they played the Hoosiers just about as close as Ohio State did — from being undefeated this year?
Meanwhile MTSU collapsed late against Vandy.
This game isn’t as close.
No one is stopping Brandon Doughty. (Except LSU in two weeks).
Miami at Florida State, the under 51
Remember when this was a huge football game and the nation stopped to watch?
Yeah, no longer.
You’ve got two bad offenses going head to head. Indeed, the only offensive weapon FSU has is Dalvin Cook, and he’s hurt and may not play.
No one is scoring in this game. The under feels like stealing crab legs from Publix.
Northwestern +8 at Michigan and the under 35
Am I really taking the under of 35 in a game? Yes, yes, I am. Last week I took the over in Texas Tech-Baylor and cashed it with ease. This is the exact opposite kind of game, a battle of two really good defenses and two really bad offenses.
I’m not even sure an offensive touchdown will be scored in this game. Which is why I’ve got Northwestern +8 and the under.
Florida at Mizzou +5.5
I don’t think the Gators are as good as they looked against Ole Miss. And even if they are you’ve got a redshirt freshman quarterback going on the road for just his second time. The last time the Gators went on the road they barely survived against Kentucky.
I think this one is low scoring — the under is really tempting too — but it’s down to 39.5. And a part of me is thinking, what if Jim McElwain is an offensive genius?
So I’ll stick with Mizzou +5.5.
It’s Locktober, baby!
TCU at Kansas State +9.5
Bill Snyder is an ageless wonder who has made a living off beating teams in Manhattan, Kansas that he has no business beating. I’m not saying the Wildcats are winning this one, but I think we have to be careful of thinking TCU has turned the defensive corner just because they got to play Texas.
This one is close all game long.
There you have it boys and girls, a baker’s dozen of picks.
13-0, here we come!