Outkick’s Gambling Picks For Week 9 2016

Last week we went 6-5, pushing our season gambling record to 46-41. It’s not spectacular, but at a 53% winning percentage we’re poised to run our record even higher this week when we go 11-0!

Everyone knows that you reverse a bad week with a winning week and then follow that up with a perfect weekend. 

That’s gambling 101. 

So here we go with 11-0 coming. 

Cal at USC, the under 75

This is a Thursday night game and if it weren’t for Thursday night games our winning percentage this year would be over 60%. Thursday night games have absolutely killed us this year, including that brutal late touchdown in Miami at Virginia Tech last Thursday night. 

But the play here is relatively straightforward, USC’s defense is solid and USC is coming off a bye week while Cal played a Friday night game that went on so long it was well into Saturday morning before it ended. 

So a rested defense against a tired offense means what? Not as many points as normal. 

I also think USC wins this game, but the nearly 17 point line has me nervous so the easy play here is the under. 

Texas Tech at TCU, the under 85

I know Texas Tech doesn’t play defense at all, but TCU’s offense has lost its mojo. What happens when your offense loses its mojo? Your defensive minded head coach takes back control of the reigns a little bit and dictates pace more. 

Three of the last four Texas Tech games have hit the under. Of course that excludes last week’s 66-59 shootout at Oklahoma, but I think that’s because the numbers are becoming so insanely high. 

You can call me an idiot — and many of you will call me much worse — if this total zooms through 100, but I really like the under here. 

Clemson at FSU +4.5

Not only is Florida State the play here as a 4.5 point underdog, the Seminoles win this game outright. 

Clemson has traveled to Tallahassee 12 times in the past 26 years. Do you know how many times they’ve won there? Once. 

I know FSU has been disappointing this season, but the Seminoles have zero pressure on them and no player on the Seminole roster has ever lost to Clemson at home. That matters in games like these.

Meanwhile Clemson hasn’t been impressive this season.

That continues on Saturday night.  

Which is why you take the Seminoles to cover and to win outright. Let’s roll #fsutwitter

West Virginia at Oklahoma State +3.5

Sometimes you have to ask yourself a simple question — is West Virginia going 12-0. 

The answer is no. 

And then you can work back from there. Well, if the Mountaineers aren’t going to go 12-0, who beats them? A decent team playing at home that hasn’t been as good as they hoped to be.

Wait a minute, that sounds exactly like Oklahoma State.  

Bang, here you go 

Not only is Oklahoma State going to cover, they’re going to win this game outright. 

Yep, Mike Gundy’s mullet is going to be dancing down the streets in Stillwater come Saturday night. 

Baylor -3.5 at Texas

Here is Baylor’s last three weeks of football. 

Bye week. 

Kansas

Bye week. 

So that’s three straight bye weeks. That means the Bears are as healthy as any football team in the country right now and they’ve had nearly a month to get ready for Texas. 

Meanwhile, the Longhorns have beaten these two teams since Labor Day — UTEP and Iowa State. 

Come on, this is too easy. 

Baylor wins by double digits in Austin. 

Nebraska at Wisconsin, the under 43

This year’s new Bowling Green?

The Wisconsin under. 

Go ahead and spend your winnings now. 

Georgia +7.5 vs. Florida and the under 43.5

It’s the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party — and, yes, I still use this phrase because I’m not a total pussy — and this line is way too high in favor of the Florida Gators. 

It’s not that I think Georgia is that good, they aren’t, but this is just too many points to give Georgia in a game that I believe will be low scoring and defensive dominated. 

One team will win this game 21-17, and I have no idea which team it will be. 

So take the under and the points and you win regardless. 

Kentucky at Mizzou, the over 70.5

Last week we took the over in MTSU at Mizzou and nearly hit it at halftime. 

I think it’s more of the same this weekend at Mizzou. The over’s the play. And as enticing as it appears to be, I’m staying away from Mizzou -4.5 because this seems an awful lot like the Arkansas -11 line that tempted me last weekend. 

I don’t understand why that line is where it is, but I’m not touching it either. 

Instead, I’m playing the safer side and rolling with the over, which will hit before the third quarter ends. 

Auburn -4.5 at Ole Miss and the over 63

In betting you have to learn to ride the hot hand. And when Gus Malzahn has got a hot hand, you pour on the steam and get filthy rich because his offense can’t be stopped. 

This Auburn offense is rolling right now and Ole Miss’s defense is roadkill, having given up 28, 34, and 38 in the past three weeks. 

That’s why our double blood bank guarantee is Auburn -4.5 and the over 63. 

The Tigers are posting 45 and Ole Miss is scoring 24. 

I’m not a math whiz, but that adds up to 69! Which makes the double blood bank guarantee also a panty dropping special. 

Get rich, kids. 

We’re going 11-0!

 

Written by Clay Travis

OutKick founder, host and author. He's presently banned from appearing on both CNN and ESPN because he’s too honest for both.

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