Last week wasn’t a great week, but we still finished in the plus territory at 6-5. That runs our weekly record to 55-33, which is a 63% winning percentage on the season. Through seven weeks we’ve had one losing week.
And, by the way, I’m still angry over that North Texas blown cover on Thursday night, that’s one of our toughest losses of the season.
How do we improve on 63% this season? By going 12-0, baby.
Here we go.
Bowling Green -14 at Kent State
Look, we bet Bowling Green here at Outkick. That’s just what we do. This line opened at Bowling Green -10, which is where I bet it, and then zoomed out to -14. But when Bowling Green is going to score 50 points, what do four points matter to us?
Hell, the only Kent State football players I can name in the past 50 years are Nick Saban and Gary Pinkel. And neither of those guys are playing Saturday.
The Falcons cover, easily.
Clemson -6 at Miami
These words may come back to haunt me, but I don’t think Clemson will lose to anybody on their schedule other than, potentially, Florida State. Clemson’s on the road here, but Miami has no home field advantage and Deshaun Watson just passed for 420 yards last week against Boston College. I think he’s coming into his own at the right time.
Too bad for Al Golden and Miami.
Mizzou at Vandy, the under of 35
Look, the only way this number even gets touched is if either quarterback throws multiple interceptions returned for a touchdown. If you told me that neither defense was going to score in this game, I would seriously take out a second mortgage and put it all on this under.
I’m not telling you to sell your blood and bet it on the under, but I’m not not telling you to do it either.
Tennessee +15.5 at Alabama
This is a banana land line. Tennessee could easily be 6-0 right now, the Vols lost three games that they led by 13 or more points. That’s unheard of coaching futility. Would the line still be nearly 16 points if Tennessee was 6-0? Of course not, which is why I’m trusting analytics, baby.
This is the least talent differential between these two teams since 2009, when Lane Kiffin went down to Tuscaloosa and almost derailed the Crimson Tide’s perfect season. Tennessee’s coming off a bye week, just like they were in 2009, and no one is giving them a chance in this game. Meanwhile, Alabama has played at Georgia, Arkansas and at Texas A&M the past three weeks and is playing for an eighth straight week. That’s draining no matter how talented your team is.
My only reticence here is wondering how Butch Jones will coach. Will he let Josh Dobbs come out and throw the ball around or will he hand off on first and second down and force Dobbs into repetitive third and long situations? If he just says, “Screw it,” and lets Dobbs play, this game will be close. Dobbs has played the two best games of his career when Tennessee has gotten down 14 to South Carolina and 21 to Georgia. Why not call plays like you’re losing by 14 to Alabama to begin this game?
Remember, Dobbs put up 267 yards of offense on the Tide last season. He’s mobile and shifty and keeps plays alive, exactly the kind of quarterback Saban defenses have struggled with over the past several years.
This game’s close.
Like I said, 15.5 is a bonkers line and I suspect this one will come down to less than two touchdowns by kickoff.
Texas A&M +6 at Ole Miss, and the over 65
I have no idea how you can look at these two teams and not think they are pretty equal. Given that A&M has won in Oxford twice since they joined the SEC, I don’t see how you can worry too much about the homefield here. Both teams are coming off tough losses where they didn’t play that well. Ole Miss isn’t great at running the football and that’s A&M’s defensive weakness.
Look for plays to be made down the field by both teams, it’s Swag Kelly vs. Kyle Allen, who is coming off five touchdown passes last week. (So what if three of them were to the wrong team, throwing pick sixes is actually much harder to do than throwing touchdowns to your own team.)
I think there will be points aplenty in this game and it may take 38 or more to win it.
Take the Aggies and the over.
Iowa State at Baylor -37
Let’s begin here, Baylor is going to score at least sixty points on Iowa State.
So the question you have to ask yourself is this, do you feel comfortable that Baylor will only score 60 and that Iowa State will score 23 or more? The answer is no to both these questions.
So you take Baylor.
Kentucky +11.5 at Mississippi State
This line blew me away, not that Mississippi State was favored, but that they were favored by over a touchdown and a field goal against Kentucky. If Mississippi State blows out Kentucky then the Wildcats are a total fraud of a football team which will be lucky to get bowl eligible this season. I think Kentucky’s going to go 6-6 — with wins over Charlotte and Vandy down the stretch and losses to everyone else.
But I definitely think the Wildcats will be competitive with Mississippi State this weekend. State’s a 7-5 football team this year, they aren’t blowing anyone out in the SEC.
Take the Cats and rest easy.
Penn State -6.5 at Maryland
I’m a little bit nervous about betting on a team coming off a bye week and a coaching change after watching what the Miami Dolphins did to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.
But Maryland is a bad football team and Penn State actually played Ohio State pretty well for about 52 minutes on Saturday.
I don’t think Maryland can score many points on this PSU defense and the Nittany Lions will pull away late.
Western Kentucky +17 at LSU and the over 65
Western Kentucky can score points — just not enough points to avoid a crushing back door cover against North Texas — and LSU is coming off a big win over Florida and gearing up for a massive game against Alabama. This has Bayou Bengal trap game written all over it.
LSU will score on Western, but they’ll also give up some points. Since the opening game of the season when Vandy slowed them down with an entire offseason’s worth of prep Western, behind talented quarterback Brandon Doughty, has scored 41, 35, 56, 49, 58, and 55 points.
I’m not saying they’re going to score forty on LSU, but I do think they’ll score at least 28. Meanwhile, LSU will score at least 40 on Western.
Bang, easy cover and easy over.
Utah +4 at USC
This is one of those lines where every fiber of my being says, stay away from betting on this. Especially since USC put up almost 600 yards of offense at Notre Dame last week.
This is the quintessential, we don’t really suck, rally the troops for the interim coach, 3-3 team gets a stunning win, game. Which, inevitably, will be described as a huge upset by all most college football media because Utah is so much higher ranked than USC. Only it will actually be an upset if Utah wins.
My guys at OddsShark tell me this is the first time in their database that a top three ranked team has been an underdog to an unranked team.
But, interestingly enough, Utah has been a better team on the road so far this season and I just feel like they will shorten this game and run the ball on USC, much like Stanford did.
Ultimately I think Utah is better coached and has a better scheme right now than USC does. So I’m rolling with Utah +4 even though everything about this game terrifies me.
There you have it, boys and girls, 12-0. Let’s get rich.