I’m not going to sugarcoat it, last week was a disaster.
We went 4-8. (Actually 4-8-1 if you count the Tennessee push and the halftime blood bank guarantee that I gave out on Twitter).
We are now 31-28 on the year and we’ve been getting progressively worse each of the past three weeks.
That means I stared down this week’s lines with equal measures of apprehension and disdain. We’ve got a hurricane looming and I’m sitting in my Dallas hotel room trying to figure out why there are so many bad games this weekend.
Everything looked like a certain loss.
But then I heard a clarion call echoing from the recesses of my mind. At first I couldn’t quite make out what the voice was saying, even as it slowly increased in volume.
But the more I listened the more clarity it provided and eventually I could make out the words — “Shooters…shoot,” it was whispering, over and over again, slowly gaining in strength — “SHOOTERS SHOOT.”
And then for good measure — “DON’T BE A PUSSY!”
So with that in mind, we’re going 8-0!
(Note: I’m not going to bet on Georgia at South Carolina because I’m afraid it’s going to get canceled. So our wagers would get canceled on that game regardless.)
Texas vs. Oklahoma, the over 73
I know, I know, it’s a rivalry game and often times points are at a premium in rivalry games, but after what happened last year, I’m nervous about taking Oklahoma as a double digit favorite. What if Texas repeats last year’s shocking performance?
In the past two weeks Texas has given up 99 points.
I don’t see their defense suddenly becoming miraculously better against the best offense they’ve seen all season.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense is suspect as well, having surrendered 33 or more against every decent team they’ve played so far this year.
Lots of points.
At least one team should score 50 and the over cashes early in the fourth quarter.
Tennessee +7 at Texas A&M
What I’d really like to do here is wait until the second half when the Vols are inevitably down double digits and bet on Tennessee, but I feel like this is just too many points to give up if you’re the Aggies.
These two teams are really pretty similar — two athletic, but erratic passing senior quarterbacks who can look like perfection one quarter and trash the next. Extremely athletic rush defense ends who will be first round picks, talented skill position players, aggressive defensive coordinators who are going to play a ton of man coverage, I just think this is a field goal game.
Auburn -2.5 at Mississippi State, and the under 54.5
Here’s the question I keep asking myself — is Gus Malzahn’s coaching career going to come to an end losing to the worst team in the SEC West in early October? I just don’t see it.
And make no mistake about it, if Auburn loses this game then Gus Malzahn’s coaching career is definitely over.
Instead I see Auburn squeaking out a win on the road by a field goal in a game that might not see either team reaching twenty points.
The under is the play.
Michigan -27.5 at Rutgers
Rutgers lost to Ohio State 58-0 last week and to Washington by 35 in week one.
You think Jim Harbaugh doesn’t know this?
The Wolverines win by at least 40 on the road.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky, the under 51.5
It’s impossible to predict what’s going to happen in term’s of which bad coach is winning this game so you make the safe decision — take the under.
Kentucky’s offense has posted 7, 17, and 6 points in SEC games so far. Meanwhile Vanderbilt’s offense has posted 10 and 6 in SEC games. That means these two teams are averaging 10 points and 8 points in league play so far. (My math skills are extraordinary).
Sure, it’s possible that both offenses will come out and score tons of points against each other, but I think it’s far more likely that someone wins this game 14-10.
I just have no idea which team it will be.
The great thing about betting the under? It doesn’t matter who wins.
Your blood bank guarantee this week? The under 51.5 at Kentucky.
LSU at Florida, the under 41
Last week LSU produced 634 yards of total offense, the most in Bayou Bengal history and throttled Mizzou. Meanwhile Florida sleepwalked through an early kickoff and survived at Vanderbilt 13-6.
I’m convinced neither team will be able to do much against the other team’s defense and the result will be a mud-slogged affair with potential rain dousing the fans here.
With Arkansas and Georgia still on the horizon this is pretty much a must win game for the Gators if they want to stay alive in the SEC East race. But I’ll be damned if I’m betting LSU -3 on the road at Florida with Ed Orgeron coaching.
So we’re taking the under.
Alabama at Arkansas +14
I feel like this is way, way too many points to favor Alabama by on the road against a pretty decent SEC West eam.
In the past two seasons the Tide has won by 13 in Tuscaloosa and 1 in Fayetteville.
Arkansas +14 is the play here.
There you have it kids, we’re going 8-0.