Outkick's Gambling Picks For Week 5
I'm still recovering from the epic Butch Jones choke job that cost me a five game and four game parlay last week. Two $50 bets that would have cashed tickets of over $2k. Not to mention Butch's ineptitude somehow leading to the over getting hit in a game that had no business whatsoever going over. Anyway, I digress.
We still finished 6-3 on the picks last week. Unfortunately, I gave out one pick on Twitter, the under on the TCU at Texas Tech game that turned into a bloodbath. So that makes us 6-4 on the week. That runs our season record to 26-18 ATS, or just shy of sixty percent on the season so far.
Now for the picks this week.
I'm a bit troubled here because I hopped on a bunch of these lines early and the games I liked the best have moved a ton already. For instance, I got Vandy +3.5 at MTSU, Texas +17.5 at TCU, and Arkansas +7.5 at Tennessee. So how do I handle these? Do I give you the numbers I got or use the current numbers? Vandy is now +1, Texas is now +15, and the Tennessee line has dropped to -6. You might think that's insignificant, but being on the better side of a field goal and a touchdown makes a real difference. Just ask those of us who waited for Texas A-M -6.5 against Arkansas. I'm interested in what you guys think.
Anyway, here we go with another winning week.
12-0 here we come.
Bowling Green -8 at Buffalo
One of the great things about gambling is how it can lead you to fall in love with teams that you would otherwise have no interest in -- that's the story of me and Bowling Green this year.
Last week Bowling Green played at Purdue and I found myself scrolling through the TV guide, the only man in Nashville, Tennessee probably doing this, thinking, "Where the hell is the Bowling Green at Purdue game?"
Turns out it was on the Big Ten Network's alternate channel and that's the only sports channel -- along with Fox Sports 2, by the way -- that Comcast doesn't carry. I had to follow that game by clicking refresh on the gametracker, which felt a bit like living in the 20th century all over again. I was one step removed from having to watch the bottom line score updates.
So, anyway, Bowling Green scored with 12 seconds left to win and cover and they're going to win and cover at Buffalo this week.
And, also, I love you Bowling Green.
Mississippi State at Texas A&M -6.5
The SEC's no respect belt winds its way from Missouri to Arkansas and on down to the state of Mississippi. Any time I pick against these schools, their fans immediately take to Twitter and ask why they get no respect. Complaining about a lack of respect is the number one thing fans of these schools all have in common.
The answer is simple: In order to get respect you have to win something that really matters.
The last outright conference title that Missouri won? 1960. The last outright conference title that Arkansas won? 1989. The last outright conference title that Mississippi State won? 1941. The last outright conference title that Ole Miss won? 1963.
Anyway, I'm taking the Aggies -6.5. (The Aggies last conference title was 1998). That's not because I have no respect for Mississippi State, it's because Texas A&M at home is better by a touchdown or more.
West Virginia +7.5 at Oklahoma
The fighting Dana Holgorsen's boast the nation's top defense and no one has yet taken note of the fact that the Mountaineers might be pretty good this season. They're fresh off a destruction of Maryland and roll into Norman, Oklahoma, a place that Bob Stoops rarely, if ever, loses.
But I think this game will be close -- potentially even an outright upset -- and I love WVU getting over a touchdown here.
Ultimately the Sooners win, but it's by a touchdown or less.
Arizona State at UCLA, the over of 59.5
This year's 2014 South Carolina? It's Arizona State, a team that began the season highly ranked and it turns out really sucks. I think the Sun Devils will have some success moving the football against UCLA, but not enough to win this game. That's because UCLA will score over forty.
The play I love here is the over.
This UCLA offense is humming and scored enough at Arizona to nearly cover this over/under by themselves.
So give me the over.
Bama at Georgia -2
Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal).
The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC.
Pray for the state of Alabama.
Ole Miss at Florida +7.5 the under of 51.5
I think what we're finding out is that Ole Miss's offense is good, not great. The Florida defense is pretty good against the pass, weaker against the run. That matches up well for Florida against Ole Miss, a team that has been much better passing with Swag Kelly than running it so far this year. I don't think Florida's that good of a team, and I think Ole Miss will win this game, but I love the under and Florida getting points here.
I see Ole Miss winning something like 24-21.
Ohio State at Indiana +21
Indiana beat Eastern Illinois by one, Western Kentucky by three, and Wake Forest by seven. This makes them the weakest 4-0 team in the country.
Now Ohio State rolls into town.
Ten months ago Indiana played Ohio State pretty well in Columbus before losing down the stretch. Now they get the Buckeyes, who are playing like total crap, at home and you're giving me 21 points?
I'm going to be the only person in America on Indiana +21. Let's go Hoosiers!
Texas Tech at Baylor, the over of 89
Last week I took the under on TCU at Texas Tech and really regretted it when they blasted through it. In fact, I might have been the only gambler on the under in the country. This week I'm not making that same mistake. Yep, I'm really taking the over 89.
Vandy +1 at MTSU
I think Vandy is the better team here. I took the Commodores at +3.5 and I would still take them at +1.
The defense is playing well and Johnny McCrary is becoming a pretty decent quarterback. It might be crazy, but I think Vandy will be competitive with Missouri, Kentucky, and South Carolina this year in the SEC East. And it's altogether possible that if things don't get turned around in a hurry that the Vols could Butch it against Vandy too.
Arkansas at Tennessee: Take the alcohol minus the points, unlike both of these teams it never lets you down.
Honestly, I don't know how anyone could watch this game sober.
If you have to bet, because you're a degenerate like me, I took Arkansas +7.5. I'd probably take Arkansas so long as they're giving points because I'm not sure I'd pick Butch Jones to outcoach a lawnmower right now.
Of course, Bret Bielema is basically a chubby lawnmower. So, ultimately, just drink.
South Carolina at Missouri, the under of 42.5
I'm betting every Mizzou game on the under for the rest of the year. By November the over/unders in these games are going to be like 25. Maty Mauk being suspended just reinforced how good of a bet the under is here.
Notre Dame at Clemson, pick'em
I'm the first person to ever write this sentence: I like Clemson to win this massively huge game outright.
Honestly, I'm not even sure why Notre Dame is making this trip, it's going to be a bloodbath.
...
There you go boys and girls 12-0 coming.
Get rich or die trying.