Outkick’s Gambling Picks For Week 3

It’s time for week three of Outkick’s gambling picks, where we continue to make you money. This past week we went 6-4-1 — I gave out Rice +15 on Twitter, you need to follow me there if you aren’t already — running our season record to 17-6. That’s a robust 74% win percentage out of the gate.

So how do we top 74%?

By going 10-0 baby!

Without further ado, here are my 10 picks guaranteed to make you filthy rich.

1. Clemson -5.5 at Louisville

Before the season I picked Clemson to make the playoffs and coming into the season this was the road game that made me the most nervous. But Bobby Petrino’s Cardinals have fallen on their faces out of the gate and this is a quick turnaround game meaning Petrino’s gameplanning is thoroughly challenged. Meanwhile, Clemson hasn’t been tested at all this season. It makes me a bit nervous to go with the road favorite in a Thursday night contest, but I really do think this is the night when DeShaun Watson unleashes his 2015 Heisman campaign.  

2. Florida State at Boston College +7.5  

If you’re feeling bold, take Boston College on the money line too, because I think they win outright. South Florida couldn’t stop Dalvin Cook last weekend or they would have won in Tallahassee. I don’t believe in Everett Golson or the FSU passing offense right now so I see FSU as a one dimensional offensive attack. Cook has been on a roll since he beat charges that he beat up a woman, but BC will slow that roll. 

This game reminds me of 2014 when top ten USC went on the road at Boston College and got boatraced. Remember that Boston College lost 20-17 in Tallahassee last season and played the Seminoles very well in 2013 also, losing 48-34.

I just think this will be the biggest upset of the weekend and that Boston College plus over a touchdown is tantamount to stealing crab legs at Publix. 

3. South Carolina +17 at Georgia

I’ve seen way too many games when everyone counted out Steve Spurrier’s team and he pulled off the upset. Hell, that happened in this game last year, when Georgia rolled into Columbia and Georgia’d the game away. Seventeen points is just way too many points in a rivalry game like this one. And I’m not even a Georgia hater, I picked them to make the college football playoff this year.

You know the Gamecocks have the defensive talent to line up and force Georgia to throw the ball a lot more than Vandy did last week. I don’t know which way this line will move — my guess is late money will come in on the Gamecocks — but if you can get South Carolina +17.5, I’d be even happier with the line here. 

4. Auburn at LSU, the under 49.5

How bad are things for Auburn right now: LSU’s over a touchdown favorite despite the fact that they almost gave away the win at Mississippi State and don’t have a quarterback who can throw the football. 

I’ve seen Auburn popping out to +7.5 at some books so I’d also take that if you can get it, but I like the under here the most of all. LSU, surprise, surprise, has no passing offense at all. Imagine how many yards Leonard Fournette could rush for if he actually had a passer behind him. Meanwhile this Auburn offense really isn’t humming either. So I was surprised to see the number this high. This game has 13-10 written all over it.   

5. Ole Miss at Alabama the under 51

I know Ole Miss has scored over 70 twice in a row, but they’re not putting up tons of points at Alabama. Ole Miss +7 is pretty tantalizing in what I believe will be a relatively low scoring game, but I don’t have a ton of faith in the Rebels to win here so I’m staying off that line. While Ole Miss’s offense has gotten all the headlines, this is a really good defense too, which means I think we’ll see a steady dose of Derrick Henry from Alabama.

As much as I’d like to see Nick Saban’s face after he lost to Hugh Freeze in two consecutive years, I don’t think we’ll get to see that frozen Nicktator visage. Bama wins, but the under is the play.    

6. Georgia Tech -2 at Notre Dame

I was going to pick Georgia Tech to win this one outright even before Malik Zaire’s injury. The Fighting Irish are devastated by injury right now and Tech is absolutely rolling on offense. I honestly think Tech stifles the Irish on defense and wins this one by double digits. If that happens then look out for the Tech bandwagon to fill to nearly overflowing.

Georgia Tech, and I can’t believe I’m saying it, but it’s true, could be undefeated when Georgia rolls into Atlanta on the final weekend of the season. 

7. Memphis at Bowling Green, the under 79

Look, the day I take the over on 79 you need to commit me to an insane asylum. I know, I know, both of these teams have been running up and down the field with reckless abandon, but are you really telling me that both teams will score 40 in regulation?

Somebody’s defense has to make a play at some point. 

Right, right?

Give me the under. 

8. Florida at Kentucky +3

Put simply, I think the wrong team is favored here. Yes, I really do think Kentucky will end their 28 game losing streak to Florida. And even if that doesn’t happen I get the push on a field goal game. (If this line gets out to UF -3.5, I like the bet even more).

The best thing about this Kentucky win will be all the UK fans saying they’re going to win the SEC East. Chill, Wildcats. You’re still getting drilled by Tennessee and Georgia in back-to-back weeks.

But you should all party like it’s 1986.  

9. SMU +38 at TCU

Sometimes you have to take a massive underdog just because it’s incredible to watch a game when you have a +38 ticket. My theory here is that SMU will score at least 20. That means TCU has to score 58 to cover. That’s certainly possible, but is it likely? I don’t think so.

SMU is a much better team this year with Chad Morris coaching than they were last year without a coach. We’ve already covered SMU +36 against Baylor. Now we cover SMU +38 against TCU.  

10. BYU +17 at UCLA

When you’ve got the “Hail Joseph Smith” in your back pocket, this is way too many points for UCLA to be favored over BYU. In all seriousness, I love UCLA freshman Josh Rosen, but BYU will confuse him on Saturday night. Couple that with the fact that BYU’s freshman quarterback, Tanner Mangum, is 22 years old — seriously, should you count as a freshman then —  and is playing with growing confidence and I like the Cougars to keep this one close. 

…

Note: I also took Arkansas -9.5 against Texas Tech earlier this week. The line has since popped out to 11.5 or 12, which makes me a bit more nervous. If, for some reason, it falls back below ten, I’d grab it. The more I look at that Arkansas box score, the crazier it is to me. My buddy Lance Taylor points out it’s the first time since 2000 that a team put up over 500 yards of offense and scored 12 or fewer points. Again, while it’s been trendy to pile on Arkansas for that loss, I think it was an aberrant result and I’d expect the Razorbacks to get back on track against Texas Tech.

Note number two: if you gamble on the NFL, the Tennessee Titans are even money right now against the Cleveland Browns. The Titans, behind Marcus Mariota — aloha, bitches! –, are going to win this one by double digits.