Outkick's Gambling Picks For Week 12 2015

Last week was tough, Vegas treated me like -- spoiler alert -- Jon Snow at the end of season five. 

We went 4-7 with several pretty crushing near wins that ended in defeat -- I'm looking at you Memphis kicker -- but we also won the Vandy under by a half point and I kept pouring money into that one all week so it was hard to feel that depressed.

On the season we're now 80-56, a 59% winning percentage.  

We've already started with a loss in the Bowling Green game so the only way to rebound? With a 10-0 performance Saturday. 

So here we go:

Mississippi State at Arkansas -3.5 and the over of 57.5

In a battle of two teams whose fans spend most of their time on social media questioning why they don't get more respect, who wins the disrespect bowl? I think it's Arkansas, but I also love the over here because I don't think Arkansas will be able to stop Dak. Razorback fans are convinced they would win the national championship right now, but if they'd lost their two overtime games -- against Auburn and Ole Miss -- they'd be 4-6 and want Bret Bielema fired at the end of the season. Welcome to the mystical world of Arkansas fans, where an 8-4 season would likely lead to a 25 year extension for Bielema. (Can you imagine what Bielema would start saying if Arkansas was ever actually good? I'm rooting for this for the pure entertainment value). 

Meanwhile Mississippi State fans are still recovering from the beat down that Alabama laid on them in Starkville. They're staring the possibility of 7-5 squarely in the face.  

College football is often a game of momentum and right now the Razorbacks have it, they win 35-28. 

Tennessee -8 at Mizzou

Here's the deal, Tennessee has infinitely better talent than Missouri on both sides of the ball. I know Mizzou is coming off the win over BYU and this is Gary Pinkel's final home game, but I discount all games that don't take place against SEC opponents. (It's the same reason I don't get too worked up about Tennessee's performance against North Texas). What's more, the Vols have covered every game outside of Neyland Stadium all year. So I really like Tennessee in this game. It's one where coaching shouldn't matter much, Butch's team is just much better than Pinkel's team. 

So far this season here's what Mizzou has scored in SEC games: 13, 24, 3, 6, 3, 13. Mizzou has scored one touchdown in an SEC game since October 3rd. 

Finally, did you see what Dak did against Mizzou's defense? I think Josh Dobbs can do the same.

This ain't going to be a safe place, Mizzou -- Vols win by double digits. 

Baylor at Oklahoma State, the over of 77.5

One of these teams will score fifty and the other team will score at least thirty. I'm no math whiz, but I believe fifty and thirty makes eighty.

Take the over and don't worry about trying to figure out who will win.  

Michigan at Penn State +4

Penn State will win this football game. I could give you lots of reasons why it's going to happen -- the bye week, the home crowd, the fact that Michigan hasn't played very well on the road in the Big Ten, it's the week before the Ohio State game -- but all you need to know is take the Nittany Lions to win straight up.

But you don't even have to do that, you get the Nittany Lions +4?

Cake walk cover.  

UCLA at Utah -2

As much as I love Josh Rosen I don't trust UCLA's defense on the road at Utah. Hell, UCLA is just 3-3 in its last six Pac 12 games. Utah's lost two on the road in the Pac 12, but they've won every home game so far this year by six or more.  

Devontae Booker gets the ball over thirty times and this one is a low scoring grind that Utah steals late. 

Texas A&M at Vandy +7 and the under 41

Look out, Aggies. Vandy's got a really good defense and an offense that showed some potential against Kentucky. (I know, I know, it was Kentucky). Kyler Murray hasn't done a very good job protecting the football and it's likely Vandy can confuse him quite a bit. The Commodores have kept every game close so far this season -- the under is undefeated in Vandy games -- and A&M's offensive and defensive performances have been pretty awful ever since Alabama came to College Station and the season went down the drain.

Having said that, if A&M beats Vandy and then beats LSU the Aggies could still finish 9-3. Meanwhile if Derek Mason's team can upset A&M they'd head to Knoxville at 5-6 with a chance to pull off another upset and get bowl eligible against Tennessee.

Take the Dores +7 and the under 41. (I'd also love to get Vandy +7.5, but I doubt the market is going to move that way). 

USC at Oregon -4 and the over 71.5

The Ducks are back, baby!

Left for dead on the side of an Eugene road after a home loss to Washington State, the Ducks have won four straight -- three out of four on the road -- in the Pac 12 and now come back home fresh off a monumental Stanford upset. 

Who is there waiting for them? USC. 

Both teams have won four in a row and both teams can score. I think the over is a foregone conclusion. In fact, the over in this game is my favorite single bet of the weekend.

But I also like Oregon -4.

...

10-0 here we come, get rich kids.