Outkick’s Gambling Picks For Week 11 2016

RALEIGH, NC – OCTOBER 03: Head Coach Bobby Petrino of the Louisville Cardinals questions a call during their game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium on October 3, 2015 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Louisville defeated NC State 20-13. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) Lance King

Last week we went 7-8. 

I have no excuses for the piss poor performance. (But I would like to point out how royally screwed we got on UT -13.5. With seven minutes left in the game Tennessee scored to go up 49-22. This game wasn’t remotely close at that point. Then Kentucky scored a late touchdown, got the onside kick, and scored another late touchdown to cover by .5 points at 49-36. That’s a pretty brutal beat. But I’m convinced that bad karma is getting reversed this week.)

Last week’s 7-8 record ran our season long gambling record to 70-57, meaning we’re now 55.1% winners on the year. 

The only way to get back on the winning track? By betting more money. 

#shootersshoot #dbap

So here we go with an 12-0 week. 

Louisville -14 at Houston

This is Louisville’s last massive audience that they will play in front of before the playoff committee makes its decision. This means Bobby Petrino is going to pour on the points. (Related, pray for Kentucky. Petrino may score 100 on the Wildcats in the last game of the season.) 

I think this will be total Louisville Cardinal destruction of the Cougars.

Louisville by 28 or more.

Remember, this is a Thursday night game so get your money in early so you can start the weekend early at 1-0.   

Oklahoma at West Virginia +3, the under 66.5

West Virginia has had one bad defensive performance all year, when the Mountaineers allowed 37 points at Oklahoma State. Other than that WVU has controlled the pace on Big 12 teams, appearing to be the lone team that plays defense in the conference.

Add in the fact that somehow the college football selection committee has West Virginia ranked as the 14th best team and Oklahoma as the 9th best team – despite the fact that Oklahoma hasn’t notched any wins better than West Virginia’s — and this just feels like the Sooners rolling right into a trap game in Morgantown.

I love West Virginia +3 here and the under.  

Indiana +23.5 at Michigan

Michigan just lost its starting quarterback and is playing a pretty decent offensive team that has given quite a few good teams in the Big Ten a scare over the past several years. 

I feel like Indiana is going to score at least 14 and that Michigan will struggle with a new quarterback to score 38 points. 

So this is simple math. If Indiana scores 14, Indiana covers. 

And Indiana’s scoring at least 14. 

Ole Miss at Vandy +10, and the under 50.5

So far the Vandy defense has not given up more than 23 points in an SEC game this season. (Missouri scored 26 points last week, but seven of those points were on a pick six.)

Toss in the fact that Ole Miss is starting a true freshman quarterback who spent the entire week celebrating his performance on the road at Texas A&M and I like the Vandy position here.  

Derek Mason will complicate things for Shea Pattersnon and keep this score low. 

It wouldn’t shock me if Vandy pulls off the upset here, but I it would definitely shock me if the Commodores lose by over ten and if lots of points are scored in this game.

So Vandy +10 and the under is the play. (Also, I’m being a huge pussy about this game. I was planning on going to it, but now it’s going to be like 45 degrees at kickoff and that’s too cold for me. So I’m watching from home. Really tough break here because it’s going to be 79 degrees in Nashville on Friday.) 

Arkansas at Mississippi State -2, and the over 60

Dan Mullen has never lost to Bret Bielema. 

I think that continues on Saturday and I also think both teams score a ton of points. 

Arkansas has no defense — unless they play Florida — and Mississippi State will be able to score points with Nick Fitzgerald, but Arkansas will throw the ball on them a ton. 

The result? State wins a shoot out 35-31. 

Bang, a double win. 

Mizzou at UT -14 and the over 66.5

Our blood bank guarantee here is the over 66.5. 

Write this in blood — the Vols will score at least 45 points on Missouri. That means Mizzou just needs to score 22 points to cover. And Mizzou will score at least 28. 

I actually feel like the final score in this game will be Tennessee 56 Mizzou 28. 

If my math is right — and it often isn’t — that’s 84 total points. 

And 84 is quite a bit more than 66.5.

That’s an easy cover and an easy over. 

Bang, another double win. 

USC -10.5 at UCLA

All I need to say here is this — USC is playing like a top five team in the nation. Meanwhile USC is a top five team…in the Pac 12 West.

This one is going to be ugly.

USC wins by three touchdowns.  

Penn State -28 at Rutgers

All Penn State does is cover. 

And all Rutgers does is get blown out by top ten teams. Rutgers lost to Washington by 35, Michigan by 78, and Ohio State by 58. 

Hell, they just lost to Michigan State by 49 and prior to that game Michigan State hadn’t even won a game in the Big Ten. 

This is going to be total destruction.

Penn State by 45.  

Florida at LSU, the under 39

The only chance Florida has to keep this game remotely close is to run the ball and pray that they can slow down LSU’s rushing attack. 

That means a shortened game with limited offensive possessions. 

The Gators are playing for a trip to Atlanta so I expect them to be feisty early. 

But I think that fades late. 

Two touchdowns is a steep price though so I’m going to be content with just taking the win on the under.

Yep, the Vols really are headed to Atlanta. Where they will be murdered in cold blood by Alabama for the second time this season. 

There you go, kids. The Outkick picks are going 12-0! 

Written by Clay Travis

OutKick founder, host and author. He's presently banned from appearing on both CNN and ESPN because he’s too honest for both.

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