Outkick’s Gambling Picks For Week 11

Last week Vegas lost its mind and we cashed in — at least as much as we could cash in despite the fact that Butch Jones and Tennessee gave up a 17 point lead and stopped scoring — going 8-5 on the week. This ran our season record to 76-49 and our winning percentage on the year remains 61%. 

All we do is make you money.

This week that continues. We’re going 11-0. 

Here we go with this week’s picks, beginning with tonight’s game. 

Bowling Green -2.5 at Western Michigan and the over 71.5

I’m not even going to analyze this because here’s what we know — all Bowling Green does is cover. 

That’s it, it’s what the Falcons do. 

So we’re going to cover. Second, both these teams can score points. This number is going to get crushed. 

Bang, you’re 2-0 for the week before Thursday is even here. 

Keep this up and pretty soon you’ll be richer than the Mizzou hunger striker.

Memphis at Houston, the over of 72

What happens when two teams with good offfenses play? They score points. 

Honestly, this is too easy. 

Kansas at TCU -44

You know how we bet on Bowling Green? Well, we bet against Kansas. Gary Patterson is going to be fuming over that loss to Oklahoma State. And Kansas just gave up 59 points to Texas. Have you seen Texas’s offense? That’s almost impossible to do.  

The result?

TCU has this line covered by halftime. 

Kentucky at Vandy, the under 38.5

I’ve watched both these teams play every game this year — yes, I really am a glutton for punishment — and there’s no way on earth that either of these teams scores 14 or more unless they score on defense. 

Given that Vandy has basically given up on throwing the football, the Dores will run it 50 times. Kentucky’s got a bad defense, but their run defense isn’t atrocious. So I don’t think Vandy will just run through Kentucky’s defense. The Wildcat offense is, however, atrocious. 

Simple numbers here: Vandy hasn’t scored more than 16 points in conference this season. And they’re going to win this game. (I just can’t bet on Vandy as the favorite in any game this year).

Go sell your blood and put it on the under in this game, get rich.

Bama at Mississippi State +8

This is Dak Prescott’s chance to forever stamp his SEC legacy. He’s not going to win the Heisman, he’s not going to win the SEC, but he can ruin the Crimson Tide’s season and ride off into the cowbell shaking sunset.  

I think Bama wins, but State covers.

Legit question here, how many carries does Derrick Henry have in him this week? Lane Kiffin gave him the ball 38 times, 38!, against LSU. That has to impact him this week, right? 

Arkansas +8 at LSU

I could do a ton of analysis, but the simple fact is this is just way too many points. 

I’m tempted to take the over here because suddenly Arkansas is an offensive juggernaut, and I think Fournette goes for over 200 yards, but I’m more comfortable with the points. 

Georgia at Auburn, the over 51

The Auburn offense is finally starting to look decent and Georgia shook off its offensive doldrums and played decently in the second half against Kentucky. Yes, yes, I know, it was Kentucky. But Kentucky almost beat Auburn. So there’s not that much difference between these two teams. 

So while I don’t have a good sense for who wins this game — both coaches desperately need a win — I do feel like they’ll blow through this number. 

Oklahoma at Baylor -2.5

This is the biggest game of the weekend and money has poured in on Oklahoma, driving down the line to Baylor favored by less than a field goal.

The result: I just don’t see how you take Oklahoma in this situation on the road. Yes, the Sooners have played really well all season except for the first 53 minutes of the Tennessee game and the entire game against Texas, but other than last week Baylor has dominated everyone on its schedule. 

With a rested team — the Bears played on Thursday — and extra time to prepare, I think Baylor wins this one. 

BYU -5 at Mizzou

Did you hear Gary Pinkel’s interview yesterday? I just don’t see how you pick Mizzou in this situation. I think the team is fractured, the coaching staff hasn’t been focused, and, most importantly, you’re playing a BYU team that was already better than Mizzou.

Check your white privilege, bro, the Mormons win.  

Florida at South Carolina, the under 46.5

Florida’s offense is atrocious. Sure, they may hit a big play or two or even return a punt for a touchdown against South Carolina, but I just don’t see them scoring over 21 points. That means they run the football and rely on the defense.

Meanwhile the Gamecocks have played better on offense the past two weeks, but they haven’t been playing a top ten defense in the country. This week they are. The Gators will shut them down and win by the score of 17-13.

There you have it boys and girls, 11-0 coming, take it to the bank.  

Written by Clay Travis

OutKick founder, host and author. He's presently banned from appearing on both CNN and ESPN because he’s too honest for both.