Outkick's Gambling Picks For Week 11 2014

The above picture is from College Gameday at West Virginia last week. It's the first thing I saw on Twitter when I woke up on Saturday morning. I loved it. I'm definitely worse than Ebola. We went 5-4 last week -- I inadvertently picked nine games instead of ten -- which ran our overall record to 44-48. Not that good, but poised to surge into the money in the final few weeks of the year. Most importantly, we've ended the awful 3-17 run that threatened to tank our gambling season. If you're still with me, this is when we put on more steam.

Some of you Tweet or email to ask if I bet on the picks that I give you. The answer is 100% yes. I put $100 on every bet that I tell you to take as well. (Generally I put more on the bet your mortgage pick). So I'm right there rooting with you if you're making the bets. 

In the spirit of election day, here's my electoral confession to you guys. I only have two political beliefs that I really care about now: I want sports gambling legalized in this country and I want the time change to end.

Both would make our country a better place. (Especially if you have kids. My kids got up at 5:45 this morning and wanted breakfast. Only kids could wake you up at 5:45 in your own house, demand breakfast, and not be considered assholes for doing it. Keep that in mind if you're thinking about having kids). 

Here we go with ten picks that are guaranteed to make you rich:

Georgia at Kentucky +10.5

Kentucky has been an entirely different team at home and on the road. At home the Wildcats have beaten everyone but Mississippi State, whom they played closely. I think that trend continues. The only thing that gives me any pause at all is that Georgia was great on the road at Missouri and Arkansas. But did you see the Florida game? There's no way I can take Georgia to win a road SEC game by double digits after that performance.

I don't think Kentucky wins, but I do think the Cats keep it in single digits. 

Florida at Vandy +14.5 and the under 46

Most of you didn't notice Vandy's game against Old Dominion -- that's because you have something called "lives" -- but redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny McCrary was outstanding, throwing for nearly 300 yards and five touchdowns. Ralph Webb has also proven to be a very solid SEC running back this season. Now that Vandy finally has a passing and running threat on offense, I think Vandy covers this game pretty easily. Florida's offense doesn't provide any real challenges for the Commodore defense and the Gators might have to actually throw the ball. And we all know how bad throwing the ball goes for Florida this year. I'm not saying that Vandy pulls off the upset here, but it wouldn't stun me. Take a look at Vandy +600 on the moneyline. The Gators are riding high on the best performance of the Muschamp era. They're rolling into a dead environment on a cool evening. It's going to feel like a mediocre high school game. If you thought Muschamp and the Gators were bad before, should you really give Florida over two touchdowns against any opponent?

Before the Missouri game I said I wouldn't take Florida -6.5 against air. I sure as hell am not taking Florida -14.5 against air.

As for the under, I think both of these offenses will revert to form, not able to score on anyone.   

Texas A&M at Auburn -21

If you'd told me before the season that I'd be taking Auburn -21 against Texas A&M I'd have said you were a damn fool. But have you seen A&M play the past several weeks? The only reason this game could stay close for a while is that Auburn's coming off a tremedendously draining win over Ole Miss and the Tigers have to play at Georgia next week. 

Talk about brutal.

I still feel like Auburn will score 40. Do you feel like A&M's scoring twenty or more? I don't.  

Alabama at LSU +6.5 and the under of 46

If LSU gives points in Death Valley at night, I take LSU. 

Period. 

I think this game will be incredibly physical and low scoring which is why I'm also taking the under. LSU wants to play a game just like they did against Ole Miss. Bama wants to get out early and create some space, forcing LSU to have to throw the football more than they want. Ultimately, I think the Tide escapes with a 20-17 win. But if Anthony Jennings can make just a play or two, LSU can certainly win. 

You want a great subplot for this game? LSU's John Chavis can't stand Lane Kiffin because Kiffin is the guy who replaced Phil Fulmer at Tennessee, ending Chavis's dominant defensive tenure with the Vols. They'll be going head to head all day. When Chavis gets his defenses fired up, they can be hard to stop. That's another reason I like LSU to cover here.  

Baylor +5.5 at Oklahoma

I know Baylor hasn't traditionally played that well on the road, but the Bears would win by two touchdowns if this game were in Waco. Baylor is better than Oklahoma, particularly at the quarterback position. I've been betting on Baylor all year to pretty good result, so how do I not take the Bears +5.5? This is the game I expected to be for the Big 12 title. It still might be. If Baylor wins this game then the Bears will hold the tiebreak over a one-loss TCU. (I expect TCU to beat Kansas State). The Big 12 needs Oklahoma to win this game so they can continue to trot out their awful "one true champion" slogan. Because if Baylor wins then the Big 12 seems likely to finish with two 11-1 teams. Would Baylor jump TCU in the playoff rankings? The Bears have to, right?

Anyway, that's for the future. In the meantime, take Baylor. 

Ohio State at Michigan State -3

Fun fact, did you know that Urban Meyer still hasn't beaten a top 15 ranked team in his third year at Ohio State? That's not starting this weekend either. J.T. Barrett was wobbly on the road at Penn State. That doesn't bode well for how he'll handle things on the road in East Lansing. Meanwhile Michigan State wants to send a message to the rest of the nation that they deserve to be in consideration for a spot in the playoff. This doesn't set up well for Ohio State. Sure, the Buckeyes want revenge for last year, but why do they want revenge? The better team is supposed to win. The better team will win again, that's Michigan State. 

Take the Spartans, big.  

Notre Dame at Arizona State -2.5

Arizona State is probably the most unknown top ten team in the country. The Sun Devils have had to cope with injuries to Taylor Kelly and they got drenched by UCLA in the one complete game the Bruins put it all together this season. But Todd Graham kept his team together and the Sun Devil defense is coming on strong. Plus, here's the deal, Notre Dame's resume is all based on a loss at Florida State. No team gets more credit for losing close games than Notre Dame. Giving up 43 points to North Carolina? 39 to Navy? The Fighting Irish are going to get exposed this weekend in Tempe.  

Kansas State at TCU -6

Bill Snyder has worked wonders at Kansas State. There's no denying that. But even he can't will his team through this brutal road schedule. Somehow Kansas State has road games at Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, and West Virginia. So Kansas State has to go on the road against the four top teams in its conference. How does this happen? State got one road win over Oklahoma. Unfortunately for the Wildcats I think they'll lose at least two of these final three road games, starting with TCU.

Once TCU wins this game, the Horned Frogs are going to become the most likely team in the nation to finish 11-1. The playoff committee is going to have their work cut out for them.