Outkick's Gambling Picks For Week 10
Time to get rich, kids.
Every so often a week comes along where everything is so perfect for you that you can't believe your eyes. This week's gambling lines are the college football equivalent of going back in time to the first time someone had this idea: "What if we mixed peanut butter and jelly together?"
Yep, it's that good.
Last week we went 8-4, running our season record to a robust 68-44. That's good for a 61% winning percentage on the season.
As we enter week 10 it's time for the dream that won't die -- a perfect week of gambling. I've never been more confident in my picks. Which, as you guys all know, is rare.
13-0, here we come:
Ohio at Bowling Green -20.5
Our rule here at Outkick is simple -- bet on Bowling Green no matter what the line is.
Seriously, I hit bet on Bowling Green the moment the line comes out. Sometimes I'm not even sure who they're playing. This week Bowling Green opened -17 and as of this writing the line has already been pushed out to -20.5. That's still laughable, Bowling Green will have this covered by the half. They're playing Ohio. The Bobcats -- note, their mascot might not be the Bobcats -- have lost the past two weeks by an average of 30 points to Western Michigan and Buffalo. This feels like stealing.
Bowling Green rolls.
Mississippi State -7.5 at Mizzou
Here's the question you have to ask yourself, can Mississippi State score 14 points? If you answer yes, then Mississippi State will cover. I think Mississippi State can score two touchdowns. So we're going with State.
I'm tempted to take the under here as well, but I really feel like this might be the week where Mizzou's defense starts to crack. Sure, Mizzou's defense has been good this year, but I think Dak Prescott, coming off a bye week, is going to disembowel the Tiger defense.
Baylor at Kansas State, the over of 69
So far in the Big 12 the Kansas State defense has given up 36, 52, 55, and 23 points. The 23 points was to Texas, which is like 46 points for the Longhorns. Yes, I know Baylor is starting a new quarterback, but do you really think the Bears aren't going to score points? I'm fairly confident Art Briles could coach me up to lead the Bears to 35 points this week.
Every Baylor game this year has gone for at least 72 total points, many for much more.
So you're telling me that a crappy defense is going to hold a Baylor game under the number?
Come on, this feels like stealing.
Honestly, this is a tripleheader of Thursday night games and I'll telling y'all, toss some money on the three way parlay.
By the way, you guys know how much I hate self promotion, but our FS1 college football show will be on immediately after this game on Thursday night.
So hang around and celebrate your gambling wins with us on FS1.
Kentucky at Georgia, the under of 57.5
You know how sometimes you see the lines and you feel like you're taking crazy pills. That's how I feel about every SEC game this week when it comes to the over/unders. I feel like Biff in Back to the Future 2 and I'm sitting here looking at the final scores before these games are even played.
Has anyone watched Kentucky and Georgia play the past couple of weeks? What in the hell makes you think these two teams are going to score points? Neither of these teams could score in a whorehouse right now.
I know, I know Kentucky's awful and the bloom is off the Mark Stoops rebuilding rose, but Georgia hasn't scored a touchdown since it played against Tennessee a month ago. That's not even hyperbole, it's true.
The final score of this game is going to be like 17-13.
I'm not even sure it's going to hit half this total.
Vandy +21 at Florida and the under 38
Vandy's offense is so bad it makes my stomach hurt to watch them play. If the Commodores had punted on first down for every possession this year I honestly think they might have a better record. If you told me Vandy was going to play without turning the ball over, I would take out a second mortgage on my house to bet on this game.
Florida's Treon Harris plays quarterback like I golf, a series of improbably awful attempts followed by one shot of transcendant beauty which makes you believe, falsely, that he isn't as bad as you think he is. The best example of this was when Treon went 0-9 passing before uncorking a beautifully perfect 66 yard touchdown pass. How many FBS quarterbacks this year have nine straight incompletions followed by a 66 yard touchdown pass?
As long as Vandy doesn't throw multiple pick sixes, they keep this game close.
Gators win 21-6.
South Carolina at Tennessee -16 and the over 56.5
Vegas's oddsmakers are having their Carrie Mathison goes off her meds week when it comes to setting these lines. I honestly have no idea what's going on with this line, it's absurd.
Tennessee is going to score 45 on South Carolina and they're going to give up 21. Am I insane or is that 66 points and a 24 point win?
The Vols have entered the portion of their schedule where they dominate crappy teams and everyone in the country finally realizes that Tennessee has top 15 talent. I told you Tennessee was going to score 50 on Kentucky and they did. Well, the team they are playing this week lost to Kentucky at home.
Seriously, this is just too easy.
I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Tennessee went over this number by itself.
Florida State +12 at Clemson
I don't know what's happened, but in the past ten days I've become a member of #fsutwitter. I'm sitting around thinking, "Why is everyone always picking on Florida State? Why don't the Seminoles get any respect?" If this keeps up pretty soon I'm going to be writing Jimbo Fisher's autobiography, "Winning With Class: The Seminole Way."
The thing that makes the most nervous about this line is that it reminds me of the Utah-USC line. That is, it seems too good to be true. But my eyes work, these two teams aren't 12 points different.
I'm rolling with the Noles, baby.
(Note: if this pick covers next week I'm going to be the white guy with the fake Native American paint tossing the flaming spear at midfield.)
LSU +6.5 at Alabama and the under 49
Again, what has Vegas seen that convinces them Alabama is 6.5 points better than LSU? The two teams are roughly even at running back, quarterback, and offensive line. Both teams have great defenses. These teams are basically mirror images of one another.
Plus, the Tide hasn't played that well at home this year.
Moreover, what has Vegas seen that makes them think lots of points are being scored in this game? Again, I'm Biff in Back to the Future 2, Bama wins 20-17 and we win the line and the under.
Arkansas +11 at Ole Miss and the under 58
If every single one of you doesn't get rich on this week's lines it's because you're too dumb to just mindlessly follow my picks.
Fifty eight points in this game? 58?! Ole Miss has scored more than 27 points once in the SEC this year, when they went to Alabama and scored 43 thanks to 32 Alabama turnovers. That's it. Meanwhile, the most Arkansas has scored in regulation in an SEC game this year is 24 points. What the hell am I missing here? If Arkansas scores the most they've scored all year in the SEC and Ole Miss scores the most they've scored all year outside of Bama, we're at 51 total points, a full touchdown less than the over/under in this game.
Have Bielema and Freeze secretly conspired to run up the score without telling anyone but the Vegas oddsmakers?
And 11 points?! Come on, this is banana land.
Both of these numbers are bonkers.
Vegas has gone crazy for the week when it comes to SEC games.
As a result, we should all by filthy rich by 11 pm Saturday night.
Honestly, if there aren't Vegas oddsmakers having their hands broken by midnight pacific, something has gone horribly wrong.
...
13-0 here we come.