We’ve had a hell of a gambling year in college football, right now Outkick’s picks sit at 98-69 on the year. That’s a pretty solid 59% win rate. If you’ve bet on every single game I’ve given you, you’ve won a decent amount of money.
We went 4-2 in the conference title games with a brutal loss on the Alabama-Florida line and a close two point loss on North Carolina. That means we came pretty damn close to a perfect 6-0 to finish off the regular season.
So how do we improve on 59% on the season?
By going 12-0 in the bowl games and finishing with a bang.
Here we go:
Bowling Green -7 vs. Georgia Southern
I know, I know Dino Babers, our gambling rock, has moved on to Syracuse. But that offense should still be prolific to finish off the season. And all Bowling Green does is cover.
So we should start off the bowl season with nice win.
UCLA -6.5 vs. Nebraska
The tough thing about betting on bowl games is trying to figure out how motivated teams are to actually play in bowl games. For instance, does anyone at either of these teams really care about the Foster Farms Bowl? Of course not. So this is basically a bet on the Pac 12’s UCLA being the battle hardened, more challenged team than the Big Ten’s Nebraska.
Plus, Josh Rosen will be the best player on the field and Nebraska can’t even throw the football. So give me the team with a quarterback and less than a touchdown to cover.
Texas Tech vs. LSU, the under 73.5
No LSU game has gone over 69 all season. And what has Les Miles done his entire career? Taken the air out of the football when he plays a potent offense. So I absolutely love the under here.
Basically, this is a wager on pace of play. And I’m betting that LSU, having the superior players, will dictate pace to Texas Tech. (The only thing that keeps me from making this my blood bank guarantee is that LSU might come out and throw the ball all over the field so Les can demonstrate that his offense can be explosive. But, come on, are you really telling me that Leonard Fournette won’t carry the ball 30 times in this game?)
The under 73.5 is a Christmas gift here.
Mississippi State -5.5 vs. N.C. State and the over 59
I feel like the over is stealing in this game. There’s no way State doesn’t want Dak to go out with a blockbuster goodbye so I think they open up the entire playbook and do everything possible to make Mississippi State fans forget that Dan Mullen loses pretty much every game that actually matters. Meanwhile, N.C. State has averaged 32 points a game in its final six weeks and is likely to match State for a while with scores.
Let me do the math on this, carry the one, ah I’m bad at math but this game is going way over.
And State wins by a touchdown or more.
Alabama -9.5 vs. Michigan State
Alabama is better at 21 of the 22 positions on the field against Michigan State. And Connor Cook, while better than Jacob Coker, is a stationary target. That does not bode well for him since this Alabama defensive front gets more pressure on the passer than any I can remember under Nick Saban.
But that’s not even the worst part of the game for Michigan State — the worst part is that Derrick Henry has over three weeks to get healthy so he can carry the ball forty times against the Spartans.
I’m tempted to take the under 47 here as well, but I honestly think Alabama might blow out Michigan State and I don’t want to get burned on a 42-10 Tide win.
Bama wins big.
And I can’t believe I’m saying it, but Roll Tide!
Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Clemson
Oklahoma is just better than Clemson on both sides of the ball. They’ve played better opponents and are peaking at the right time. Meanwhile Clemson hasn’t been that good down the stretch. They beat a bad Syracuse team by ten, they hung on to beat a 3-9 South Carolina team by 5 and if the ACC officials could actually call offsides correctly who knows what would have happened in the final minute against North Carolina.
The Sooners win by a touchdown or more setting up a tremendous title game against Alabama.
Florida vs. Michigan, the under 41
Look, the only way Florida can win this game is if no one scores twenty points. That’s because the Florida offense couldn’t score twenty points right now if you spotted them 17. This Gator defense is legit. Unfortunately for the Gators Treon Harris is a worse quarterback than half the people reading these picks right now.
On the other side of the ball Michigan’s offense is predictable, boring, and lacks explosion. Meaning the Gator defense will keep things tight for much of the game before, probably, collapsing late and losing a close game.
But I see the winning team in this one with 17 and the losing with 14.
An easy under.
Penn State vs. Georgia, the under 41.5
Neither of these teams can score points and both have a substantial coaching overhaul taking place on the offensive side of the ball. Hell, I think Georgia is basically coaching itself since Kirby Smart isn’t leaving Alabama until the playoff is over.
So why would you anticipate many points being scored with new offensive coaches and the long layoff.
Underrated fact: Georgia finished with the number eight overall defense in the country this year. So if they’d had any kind of quarterback play, look out.
The under is an easy play here.
Iowa vs. Stanford -6.5 and the over 53
Stanford, the vastly superior team in this game, has scored 30 or more points in every game it has played since week two. Every Stanford game since September 19th except for the Colorado game which ended up at 52 total points has gone over 53.
You know how I said LSU would dictate pace against Texas Tech? Stanford will dictate pace against Iowa. The winner of this game will score at least 35 points. And the winner of this game will be Stanford because they are much better than Iowa.
Even if, as will be the case, the entire Rose Bowl is filled with Iowa fans.
Ole Miss -7 vs. Oklahoma State
What do 53, 29, 31, 45, and 58 represent?
That’s the number of points Oklahoma State has given up in its past five games. That’s an average of 43.2 points per opponent. Ole Miss has an explosive offense, especially when it plays crap defenses.
I think the Rebels, playing in their first Sugar Bowl since 1970 and coming off a crap bowl performance last season — MOTIVATION, MOTIVATION!, win this game huge.
So huge that I’m tempted to play the over here too. But it’s a pretty steep 67 points. And I’m afraid Ole Miss might win 45-17 or something like that and screw me on the over.
There you go boys and girls, a Christmas gift from a gay Muslim.
12-0 here we come.