Outkick’s Gambling Picks

As you all gather around the Thanksgiving table with your family and friends, what’s a more American tradition than complaining about the wifi in your parent’s or grandparent’s house because you can’t get your bets in before kickoff? Nothing. Gambling is as American as the Mayflower and lenient treatment for athletes in criminal cases.

Last week we went 4-6, tossing our record back below .500 to 60 and 62. But this week I’m stepping up my gambling game in honor of the timeless love between Pocahontas and John Smith. We’ve got one extra bet for you!

This week we’re going 11-0, baby.

TCU at Texas +7

Here’s the deal, Texas is winning this game outright. The Longhorns have won three straight games by 17 or more points, two of those on the road, and Charlie Strong and company have been preparing for this game for nearly two weeks. It will be a wild atmosphere on Thursday night in Austin and TCU’s been wobbly on the road this season. The Horned Frogs have lost by three at Baylor, won by one at West Virginia, and won by four at Kansas. That looks like a trend to me. Take the Longhorns and thank me later when you’re in a drunken argument with your uncle about gay marriage.

LSU at Texas A&M, the under of 50.5

There are four certainties in life: death, taxes, FSU fans lacking basic reading comprehension skills, and LSU on the under in 2014. I know Texas A&M wants to score points and make this game a track meet. The problem is, LSU can’t score points in an SEC game unless they’re playing Kentucky. In the Tigers last three SEC games they’ve scored 10, 13, and 0 points. That continues on Thursday at A&M. 

Arkansas -2 at Missouri and the under

How confident am I that the under is the play here? It hasn’t even been released yet and I’m telling you to take it. Yep, the under is the bet the mortgage pick of the week and it doesn’t even exist yet. That’s confidence. And if I’d take Arkansas to beat FSU on a neutral field right now I’m definitely taking them to cover against Mizzou. Congrats to Mizzou on the win over Tennessee. Unfortunately for the Tigers Arkansas’s offensive line isn’t five random fat guys from Calhoun’s. The Razorbacks win 3-0. And yes this means I am a total Mizzou hater. Everyone knows that if you pick one team to beat another team in a game it’s because you hate the other team with every fiber of your being. 

Stanford at UCLA -4

The Bruins might be playing the best in college football right now and this week they’re playing Stanford, a team that couldn’t score twenty points against a good team if you spotted them 10. I’ll confess to being confused as to why the line is this low. That would trouble other gamblers. Not this one. The only real question here is this — can UCLA score 24 points? If they can this game won’t be close. If they can’t then all of you will be cursing me on Friday afternoon when it’s 10-7 Stanford and UCLA’s taking possession with three minutes left. I’m betting the Bruins win by double digits.

UT -16.5 at Vanderbilt

Vandy is an awful, awful football team. The Commodores have lost every SEC game by double digits. That’s an impressive level of futility, even for Vandy. How many times do you think a team has lost every SEC game by double digits? Has this ever happened in SEC history? (And by “has this ever happened in SEC history,” what I’m really asking is, “has Vandy ever lost every SEC game by double digits before?”) Last week Tennessee’s decision to start an entire offensive line it found on Thursday night at Calhoun’s all you can eat ribs night proved to be the Vol’s downfall. This week I’m pretty sure Butch Jones is glad Vandy’s on the schedule instead of Ensworth. It’s rare I predict a thirty point win. In fact, I don’t believe I’ve ever done it before. But I’m predicting a thirty point win here. This is our bet the mortgage pick. Yep, double bet the mortgage picks just in time for the holidays! It’s Santa Clay time, boys and girls. 

Baylor -24.5 vs. Texas Tech

Last week Baylor scored 49 points in a monsoon. This week they are playing Texas Tech, which has played defense all year like it’s in a monsoon that only afflicts one side of the ball, theirs. Tech gave up 82 points to TCU. They just gave up 31 points to Iowa State, which I didn’t believe was possible. Honestly, this game is going to take five hours to play and Baylor is scoring sixty.

Take the Bears, big.

Auburn at Alabama -9

It’s always dangerous to bet on the favorite in the Iron Bowl because it’s the Iron Bowl, stupid. Anything can happen. But Auburn appears to have nothing left. This is a tired football team that is all out of luck. Auburn’s a shell of the team that it was in early October. You know that Gus Malzahn has saved a couple of plays all season for Alabama, but I just don’t think that will be enough to keep this game close. The Tide’s going to roll through Auburn and on into Atlanta and I think they’re going to win by double digits. Nick Saban’s not leaving anything to chance with his kicker this week, he’s pouring on the points.

Florida +8 at Florida State

Here’s what will happen in this game, the Gators will come out on fire early and go up by double digits. You’ll start thinking, “Hey, maybe FSU will finally lose.” Then FSU will score a touchdown just before the half to make this a single digit game. Then Florida will retain the lead until the beginning of the fourth quarter when FSU will score to tie the game. Then with three minutes left FSU will score to take its first lead of the game and will end up winning by a touchdown or less. Then FSU fans will get on Twitter and call me a gay bitch. Honestly, you don’t even need to watch this one, I just told you the entire game.  

South Carolina +4.5 at Clemson

Dabo Swinney has never beaten Steve Spurrier as Clemson’s actual head coach. (He won as an interim). That’s five straight losses. This year’s Gamecocks team is 6-5 and hasn’t played particularly well against anyone other than Georgia. But they had double digit fourth quarter leads against Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee and lost all three. If they just hold those double digit fourth quarter leads the Gamecocks are 9-2 and have won the SEC East. Meanwhile, Clemson is 8-3, but what win on their schedule makes you think they’re a good football team? At least South Carolina beat Georgia, Clemson got destroyed by the Bulldogs. My point is that these teams are pretty much even. In a game like this, why not take the even team plus the points?

Mississippi State -1.5 at Ole Miss

State’s a better football team than Ole Miss. That doesn’t necessarily mean that State will win, but it means you have to bet on them if you’re picking sides in this game. The Rebels are now 1-3 in their past four games and have become a shell of their earlier selves on the offensive side of the ball. Remember when Bo Wallace was good Bo or bad Bo. Now he’s just bad Bo. What game can you really point to all season that State has played poorly in? Sure, Dak Prescott wasn’t great on the road at Alabama, but State played Bama their toughest game in Tuscaloosa by far. I think State’s going to put the onus on the committee to decide if they belong in the playoff. The Bulldogs finish 11-1 with an Egg Bowl victory.

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Happy Thanksgiving to y’all, and congrats on your 11-0 gambling weekend.