Outkick’s Gambling Picks

Two weeks ago I went 2-8, it was the worst day of college football gambling in my life. I attributed that to an incredibly wild day in college football. There were more upsets two weeks ago than on any Saturday ever. So last week I dove right back into the mix and went 1-9. This means that for the past two weeks my picks have gone 3-17 against the spread. 

3-17!

I am the cooler. 

That’s an incredible degree of futility. I’ve never gone 17-3 in a twenty pick stretch. From a statistical perspective, it’s every bit as improbable. Lots of you ask what I bet, the answer is $100 for every game. I’ll also toss in a few money line bets here and there — Todd Fuhrman put me on the Arizona money line just before kickoff a couple of weeks ago, and I won $900 on that game. I came within two points of cashing a +1350 ticket on Charleston-Southern last weekend, which would have canceled out all my losses for the day in grand style. When you bet as many college football games as I do, it’s generally hard to lose big money or win big money. I lose a few thousand or win a few thousand over the course of the season and it makes watching the games a lot more fun.

Honestly, I have no idea why any sports fan wouldn’t gamble.  

But in the middle of a 3-17 run for the first time ever, I’m actually contemplating pulling a George Costanza this week and going the exact opposite to what I actually think. (I don’t blame any of you for fading this week’s picks.) But my luck has to change, right? Unless there’s been a coup among the gambling gods and the Bama 85% have taken over, I can’t be this forsaken forever, right?

Plus, I’m in need of good luck because as I write this I am flying to Los Angeles with my four and six year old boys. As soon as we land we are going straight to Disneyland to spend the entire day there. Last night I slept three hours because both boys had nightmares and came to sleep in the twin bed that I’m sleeping in while the new baby and his mom sleep in our bedroom. In less than a month I’ve moved from sleeping in a California King size bed with a hot wife to sleeping in a twin bed in a nursery room with two boys who think the most comfortable position possible is to sleep with their feet actually in your face. 

My point: I NEED THIS. 

Here we go, 10-0 baby, 10-0!

Baylor -7.5 at West Virginia and the over of 80

You know what West Virginia’s defensive gameplan is going to be? They’re going to try and outscore Baylor. I’m not even kidding about this. It’s pure insanity. Remember how I said I would take Baylor – infinity. 

I’m doing it again. 

Last time these two teams played in Morgantown they scored a combined 4,074 points. Take Baylor and the over of 80. The Bears win 52-38 this year. 

Washington +21 at Oregon 

Here’s the deal, Chris Petersen had a lot of success devising gameplans to stifle Oregon’s offense when he was at Boise State. Washington is getting better every week and Oregon is coming off a big win at UCLA. This is way too many points to give up in this game, in fact, it feels a bit like the Arizona game all over again. 

Ride the Huskies.  

Georgia -3 at Arkansas and the under of 58.5

Here’s the deal, if we’ve learned one thing about Arkansas this year it’s that they’re going to almost win and then somehow screw it up. Miss an extra point, decide not to cover Texas A&M’s receivers once they get more than twenty yards from the line of scrimmage, count on the Razorbacks blowing it somehow. 

Georgia’s going to run the ball 75 times with Nick Chubb. Arkansas might run the ball on every play of this game. Take the under and Georgia to cover. (I know Mark Richt said they don’t expect Todd Gurley to play, but I feel like he’ll end up playing. Call it intuition.)

Texas A&M +12.5 at Alabama

Look, Alabama has scored 24 offensive points in the past two games. That’s an average of 12 a game. And now you want me to give 12.5 against A&M, a team that can definitely score some points as long as they aren’t playing a team from Mississippi? 

I don’t think A&M’s that good, but so far I don’t think Bama is that good either. 

In this situation you take the points. 

Kansas State +8.5 at Oklahoma

On our Fox conference call this week Joel Klatt convinced me that Kansas State is going to win this game outright at Oklahoma. The Sooners have been wobbly the past two weeks and Kansas State has been under the radar ever since the loss to Auburn. 

This is the kind of game Bill Snyder wins just to screw up the Big 12 race. 

Mizzou +6 at Florida

I would not take Florida -6 against air. 

Tennessee at Ole Miss -16.5

The Vols have the worst offensive line in the SEC and Ole Miss has the best defensive line in the SEC. That’s what we call a bad match-up. As if that wasn’t bad enough, any hope that the Ole Miss defensive line might overlook the Vols was dashed when a UT fan leaked a photo of Robert Nkemdiche smoking weed. 

You know when Justin Worley saw this story he shook his head and a single tear rolled down his face. 

I halfway expect for Nkemdiche to sack Justin Worley and stand up with his decapitated head in his right hand.

After this game the Vols will have a chance against every team the rest of the way — yes, even Bama — but first comes pain. 

Lots of pain.  

Kentucky +9.5 at LSU

I actually got Kentucky +10.5 on Monday and made it my bet the mortgage pick of the week. I’m sorry to have to do this to you Wildcat fans. I really am impressed with Mark Stoops and I’m horribly unimpressed with LSU. 

C-A-T-S, C-A-T-S

It’s Outkick’s bet the mortgage guarantee!