Okay, boys and girls it’s time for another fabulous season of Outkick gambling picks. And if you love to gamble then you absolutely, positively, must join Outkick VIP. I’m posting all my picks on Sunday evening as soon as the lines go up and Todd Fuhrman is dispensing gambling advice all behind the paywall on our message board. It’s $99 for the entire year and you get a free tshirt.
We’re rapidly approaching my goal for the entire year of a thousand Outkick VIP subscribers and it has only been nine days since we launched.
Plus, we will have our first event for Outkick VIPs only in Atlanta on Friday night from 6-9 et. Details on that event are posted on the message board and you’ll get free food and an open bar there. As if that weren’t enough, we’re having an Outkick playoff four contest on the message board and the winner gets a trip to Costa Rica.
This is the fifth season that I have given you weekly picks at Outkick and we’ve had four pretty good years so far. The past two years we have won 60% of our picks. Three years ago we went 50% for the year and the year before that we were over 60%.
In fact, if you have just played all my picks every week you would have literally made hundreds or thousands of dollars depending on your wager amount.
Of course past performance is no predictor of what will happen this year, maybe I’ll suck. But what if I’m even better and you lose out because you’re being a cheap pussy?
That’s why you should go sign up for Outkick VIP right now. $99 and a free tshirt? Honestly, I should have charged way more.
Can we make it five years in a row of dominating Vegas?
Of course we can! Especially when we start off the season going 15-0! (Note: I am using the spreads that existed when I gave out these picks on Sunday to Outkick VIP subscribers. If the numbers have since moved, I will let you know in parentheses. If you want the fresh number, shell out the cash, kids.)
OSU at Indiana, the over 56.5 (Now 57.5)
Have you ever been fired? If you have you know what you want more than anything after you get fired? To show the people who fired you that they were idiots. Which is exactly what Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson, the head coach of Indiana until this past spring, is going to do to his old team on Thursday night.
Ohio State is going to score 40 points in this game. That means all we need is for Indiana to score 17 points and we win.
That’s happening with ease, cash the check, boys, a Thursday night payday is here.
Washington at Rutgers +30.5 (Now Rutgers +27.5)
The only thing crazier than betting on a Friday night game? Betting on Rutgers on a Friday night. But I think Rutgers will be much better this year — honestly, they can’t be worse — and Washington is traveling cross country and playing at an odd time.
As much as I love Chris Petersen, this line opened way too high and has since pulled back a great deal.
Louisville at Purdue, the over 67.5 (Now 69)
What happens when Bobby Petrino has months to prepare for a crappy team? HE SCORES POINTS. TONS OF POINTS.
Louisville is going to hang 50 here and that means all we need Purdue to manage is 18 points. That’s going to happen with ease given how many possessions there will be in this game.
The Fighting Petrinos win big.
Maryland +17 at Texas (Now Maryland +18)
This is the first line that’s moved against us, but you know what I do when a line moves against me? Bet more.
The Terrapins keep it close for most of the game before Texas pulls away late in Tom Herman’s debut.
You know what keeping it close means for us? A win.
Moral victories may not count in real life, but they certainly count in gambling.
Georgia Southern +35 at Auburn (Now Georgia Southern +34)
Look, I put some money down on Jarrett Stidham to win the Heisman this year. So I think Auburn’s offense will be much improved. You know why? Because they finally have a quarterback.
But Georgia Southern is not awful. Last year they played their best games against big opponents — losing by 11 at Georgia Tech and 10 at Ole Miss.
This line is way, way too high.
Auburn wins easily, but we cover even easier.
Kentucky at Southern Miss +10.5 (Now Southern Miss +10)
Last year Southern Miss went into Commonwealth Stadium and won. This year Kentucky, for some reason, is traveling to Hattiesburg. (Seriously, if you’re Kentucky you have to invest in your team and not play home and homes like this.)
The last time Southern Miss had a non-Mississippi SEC school come to play them at home was 1973. (I just made this stat up, but it seems accurate).
That means the place will be insanely wild come kickoff. Give me the double digit home underdog here who beat Kentucky last year on the road.
South Carolina +6 vs. N.C. State (Now South Carolina +5)
In Will Muschamp’s second year at Florida he went 11-1. That’s way too much to expect at South Carolina, but it is indicative of the jump Muschamp can bring.
Last year Muschamp’s Gamecocks outperformed their talent level and got to 6-7. This year I see South Carolina sneaking up on teams again, beginning with N.C. State in this neutral site game.
On the other side of the ball N.C. State went 7-6, finishing the season 2-5.
In a battle of teams that both went 6-6 in the regular season last year six points is way too many.
Give me the Gamecocks +6.
Gators +4 vs. Michigan & the over 44.5 (Now Michigan -3.5 and 45.5)
Look, this game is difficult to forecast because both teams lose so much, but I think this year Jim McElwain’s Gator offense is going to have to carry the team after relying on Will Muschamp’s defensive talent the past two years. That means I see the Gators coming out and scoring 21 or more.
Can Michigan match stride?
I think the Wolverines can.
Call it 24-21 Michigan, but you get the cover and you get the over, bang. (At least if you’re a VIP subscriber and got your bets in early).
LSU -13.5 vs. BYU (Now LSU -16)
Have you noticed that of all the games I gave out on Sunday every line has moved in our favor but one so far? That’s because we bend Vegas to our will, baby!
These line moves by themselves would have paid for your subscription to Outkick VIP. So stop being cheap and go subscribe and make some money.
This is my blood bank guarantee, I think LSU is going to absolutely demolish BYU.
Especially now that this game is in New Orleans.
Load up, boys and girls, it’s time to pay the mortgage.
Vandy -4.5 vs. MTSU (Now Vandy -3.5)
This line has moved against us.
You know what that means to me?
Bet the house on Vandy. The Dores are going to roll over MTSU. (I can’t believe I’m this confident in Derek Mason, but, gulp, I am. At least in this game).
Bama -7 vs. FSU (Now Bama -7)
Couple of stats for you — Nick Saban is 8-1 against the spread in openers at Alabama and he is 10-0 against former assistants who worked under him, winning those contests by an average of 18 points.
I’m not an expert on math, but all of that seems to add up to a double digit Bama victory. Load up now, the Tide is rolling through Atlanta and it ain’t gonna pretty for Jimbo and the Noles.
Texas A&M +4 vs. UCLA (Now Texas A&M +3.5)
This may be the most difficult game to predict on the board. The Aggies went 0-9 down the stretch against the spread.
Meanwhile Josh Rosen is coming back for a UCLA team that was atrocious last year. Ultimately I’m taking A&M here because the Aggies have way more talent than UCLA and I think that talent will overwhelm the clear advantage UCLA has at the quarterback position.
Plus, we all know A&M always starts the season on fire, right? Right?
So give me the Aggies +4.
Vols -4 vs. Georgia Tech and the over 56 (Now Vols -3 and the over/under is 57)
Why am I taking Tennessee here?
Ultimately this is a bet based on Vol defensive coordinator Bob Shoop. Last season Shoop’s defense was absolutely atrocious down the stretch, I mean just abysmal, like Sal Sunseri’s defense only worse.
Shoop has had an entire offseason to get things figured out on the defensive side of the ball and he has had ample time to prepare for Georgia Tech’s unorthodox offensive attack. With time to prepare against a triple option offense I always bet on the team with better athletes.
And Tennessee has much better athletes than Georgia Tech.
I really think the Vol defense will be much improved this year. What’s more, I think the UT offense has a chance to be pretty good.
So the cover and points aplenty for Tennessee.
That means a double win for all of us on Monday night.
Here we go, 15-0 coming!
I’m heading to Atlanta on Friday for our Outkick VIP event and I’ll be at both Bama-Florida State and UT-Georgia Tech. So if you see me come say hi.
By my count I gave you 15 bets on Sunday and 11 of those bets have since moved in our direction. That movement alone would have been worth your entire $99 cost for the entire season. So if you’re a gambler don’t be a pussy, go sign up for Outkick VIP today.
And enjoy the 15-0!