College football is back!
I can’t tell you how excited I am by this fact.
And with the return of college football brings the glorious return of the Outkick weekly gambling picks. Now, the haters out there are going to point out that last year’s picks finished at 49%, but this is the sixth straight year I’ve done the picks and this is the first time that’s happened.
So we’ve had one bad to mediocre year and four pretty good years. Before last year’s debacle the past two years we have won 60% of our picks. Three years ago we went 50% for the year and the year before that we were over 60%. All of these are public picks and I post my record each week so you can go back and look them up.
I’m not an expert on math, but I’m pretty sure that means this year I will win 80% of all my bets. Especially since I’m going to start off 13-0 this week.
This year the first picks of the week also come with big news, namely that I will now be on FS1 daily from 4:30 to 5:30 eastern for a gambling show. I’ll be one of four people on the show — the other three are Todd Fuhrman, Cousin Sal, and Rachel Bonnetta — and I’m really excited to get rolling with it.
I think you guys are going to love it.
This is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks — or are a hater and want to fade me — I will be posting my picks on Monday and Tuesday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Stop being so cheap.
The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.
So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.
We’re going 14-0!
Central Florida -23.5 vs. Connecticut
Last year Josh Heupel was the offensive coordinator for Missouri and his Tigers went on the road against Connecticut early in the season. The result? A forty point Mizzou win. Now Heupel is the new offensive coordinator at Central Florida and he’s taking over a team used to playing at a fast pace and rolling up points on the road at UConn.
What better way to celebrate Central Florida’s national championship than with a Thursday night blood bank guarantee for college football’s top 25 kickoff?
Yep, tap the vein baby, it’s Central Florida by thirty or more.
FAU +21 at Oklahoma and the over 68, now FAU +21 and the over 72
What does Joey Freshwater do when he rolls into a college bar filled with nubile coeds?
Look out Norman, Lane Kiffin is coming to town and he’s going to make more plays than Brian Bosworth at the Theta house in 1982.
It wouldn’t stun me if we hit the over before the third quarter is done, but it would stun me if Lane isn’t keeping this game tighter than a virgin’s but cheeks at a Nevada whorehouse into the fourth quarter before Oklahoma pulls away late.
FAU for the cover and the over.
Tennessee +10.5 vs. West Virginia, now Tennessee +10 vs. West Virginia
It’s the Moonshine Bowl, get drunk, y’all! (Also, insert toothbrush joke here.)
Here’s what I believe: Tennessee has got a pretty solid offensive line and will be able to run the ball against West Virginia.
That will shorten this game and keep the explosive West Virginia offense off the field.
It will also tire out the West Virginia defense and take the game into the fourth quarter into a toss-up situation. The Vols have won nine straight season openers — yeah, even I’m kind of shocked by that, honestly — and should travel well to Charlotte.
I don’t think Tennessee will win, but I do think West Virginia scores late to take the victory.
But you win if you take the Vols by double digits.
Auburn -2.5 vs. Washington and the under 48.5, now Auburn -2, 48.5
This is the biggest game of opening weekend and I have a simple question for you: do you believe Auburn is going to lose three straight games in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium? The Tigers lost the SEC title game and to Central Florida there.
Are you really telling me that Auburn is going to lose a home game — the crowd will be 90-95% for AU — against a team from the Pac 12?
Get the fuck out of here.
This would be like Robert E. Lee losing to Joseph Hooker at Chancellorsville. Or a Deadspin writer having a functional penis.
Shit ain’t happening.
There is no way Auburn is losing three straight games in Atlanta. That’s all the research I need to do for this game. Well, that and the fact that Jake Browning got destroyed by Alabama’s defense last time Washington came to Atlanta and the Tigers will do the same to him.
Auburn by three or more in a tight, low scoring game.
Boom, Auburn gets the win and the under hits.
You can celebrate getting ’em scattered and smothered alongside Gus Malzahn at the Waffle House.
Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech, the over 68, now 67
I don’t want to say there are going to be a lot of points scored in this game, but Tony the new Ole Miss Landshark mascot is even money to go for two touchdowns before drunk Ole Miss frat guys kidnap him and let Colonel Reb waterboard him in the KA house while everyone dances to Dixie in Laremy Tunsil bong masks.
In all seriousness, Matt Luke, the new Ole Miss coach who has had the interim tag removed, has a cadre of wide receivers he’s ready to unleash and Kliff Kingsbury has spent the entire offseason dreaming of ways to bring the offense back to Lubbock.
Lots of points!
Michigan at Notre Dame +1.5, and the under 48.5, now Notre Dame -1 and the under 46.5
This is one where the number has moved pretty substantially in our direction since I posted the picks.
First, I’m not a big believer in Shea Patterson in big games.
If you go back and look at his numbers at Ole Miss they aren’t very impressive against good teams. This is from my buddy Chris Fallica at Gameday, “In eight career games against Power 5 opponents, Shea Patterson has thrown 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He had eight touchdowns and eight interceptions and a 49 QBR in the five games he played vs. Alabama, Auburn, California, LSU and Vanderbilt.
That tells me that Patterson is more myth than legend.
And, keep this in mind, he had great receivers to throw to at Ole Miss.
Who is making plays for Michigan this year at wide receiver?
Desmond Howard ain’t walking through that door.
Second, I also like Brian Kelly in this game more than Jim Harbaugh, who I believe is the most overrated head coach in college football. And I love Kelly at home even if Michigan fans are likely to infiltrate South Bend and raise a lot of noise in the stadium too.
Irish eyes are smiling come late Saturday night and Michigan fans are left with a Jim Harbaugh coached team that is just 8-8 in their last 16 college contests. Putting that into context, that’s more total losses than Nick Saban has in the past six years of college football.
The under also hits and you’re drunker than a leprechaun who finally found his pot of gold.
Alabama -25.5 vs. Louisville, and the over 56, now -24.5 and 62.5
Speaking of Nick Saban, pray for Louisville.
Bobby Petrino will score some points against Alabama. Unfortunately for him Bama is scoring 50.
Make it 52-17 for the final.
That’s 69 points.
It’s also, by the way, our blood bank guarantee, the over hits, bigly.
(Also, look at how much this number moved in the total since I posted it on the VIP message board. If you like to gamble, you need to bet these games early and take advantage of line moves like this. That’s nearly an entire touchdown that has been added to the total since this pick went up. So #dbap and sign up today.)
Vandy -4 vs. MTSU, now Vandy -3 vs. MTSU
The only team Derek Mason owns, aside, sigh, from Tennessee, is MTSU.
Vandy has won by 4, 23, and 22 in the past three seasons against MTSU.
I don’t see any reason that’s going to change in 2018.
Dores by seven, lock it in.
Miami -2.5 vs. LSU, the under 48.5, now Miami -3.5 and 47
I have zero faith in Ed Orgeron right now.
He’s a good dude, I like him, but I just feel like Mark Richt with an offseason to prepare is the side I want to back. That’s particularly the case when you consider all that LSU has lost and the fact that Richt has even managed to keep his players from getting arrested this year.
Having said that, I see this game as low scoring and defensive based, which is why I also love the under.
Keep in mind, by the way, this is a Sunday night game.
So why not say your prayers at church that morning and then thank Santa Clay for a double win on the Canes and the under come late Sunday?
Because that win will make you 14-0, baby!
Don’t call it a comeback!
Get rich, kids.