Before we get to the picks — I am doing a book signing tonight in Nashville at 7 pm central time at the Barnes & Noble on West End Avenue beside Vanderbilt University. We will have plenty of books you can buy there and I will sign them as well as talk and answer your questions.
So I hope to see a bunch of you there tonight.
Now on to the smoldering, white hot college football picks.
You guys know I hate to brag, but our Outkick gambling picks are totally and completely on fire. We went 8-5 this past weekend which runs our overall record through five weeks of the season to 38-25. That’s a smoking hot 60.3% winning percentage so far this year, meaning all of you who have played every Outkick pick, or signed up for the VIP, should be swimming in cash.
Fade the picks guy is getting wrecked so far this year.
Which is why you always must be team #respectthepicks.
I’ve got 10 more picks coming for you this weekend, which are, of course, going to go 10-0, but I also want to ask you to spend a small bit of the money you’ve won and please buy my new book which is out in stores now, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too. It’s $16 right now on Amazon and if you don’t want the hard back book, you can buy the nine hour unabridged audio version I recorded myself.
If you want an autographed copy — as many of you do — this is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks on Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Stop being so cheap and sign up today.
The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.
So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.
Syracuse -6 at Pittsburgh, now Syracuse -3.5
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills on this line. Remember last week when I told you to hop all over Syracuse at Clemson because Clemson was favored by way too many? And then the line kept climbing in the opposite direction and Syracuse still almost won the game outright?
I feel the same way here with the line now down to Pittsburgh -3.5.
Pitt has been awful this season and is coming off an utter beatdown from Central Florida.
Plus, remember, all Dino Babers does is cover.
Take Cuse, bigly.
Mizzou +1 at South Carolina, now Mizzou +1
Last week I told you to take Kentucky to win outright over South Carolina and what happened? Kentucky came out and dominated South Carolina.
This week I’m telling you to take Mizzou outright to win on the road at South Carolina. There are a couple of things working in Mizzou’s favor here: first this game reminds me quite a bit of the Purdue game Mizzou has already played. Back in 2017 Purdue rolled into Mizzou and dominated. Then Mizzou bounced back and won on the road the next year. There’s a similar story playing out here. Second, Mizzou is coming off a bye week and South Carolina has been on the road for two straight weeks in SEC play.
I think Mizzou will be rested, well prepared and relaxed at kickoff, boding well for their offensive performance.
So I think the Tigers win outright in the other Columbia.
Auburn -3 at Mississippi State the under 45, now Auburn -3.5, under 43
The under in this game is my favorite play of the week.
Yep, tap the veins boys and girls, the blood bank guarantee is coming to Starkville, where a defensive slugfest will ensure we all get very rich.
The past three weeks have shown Nick Fitzgerald to be a poor fit for Joe Moorhead’s offense. Fitzgerald’s completion percentage against big five conference opponents: 40.7, 50, and 42.3. I’m not a math professor, but that ain’t good. Even worse than that, both Kentucky and Florida took away Fitzgerald’s ability to run, rendering him virtually weaponless behind center.
The result? Mississippi State is averaging 6.5 points a game in SEC play so far. And I don’t see that getting better with Auburn coming to town. The Tigers are giving up an average of 12.6 points per game so far this season and no one has scored more than 22 on them.
But, protecting us, the Auburn offense has also been fairly mediocre as well.
Even with Dan Mullen, Mississippi State has not scored more than 17 points against Auburn for the past three years. I think Auburn comes into Starkville and wins a brutally ugly 21-10 style game.
Meaning you win on Auburn -3 and you hit the under with ease.
Oklahoma vs. Texas over 60, now over 61.5
Tom Herman has righted the Texas ship, but I’m not betting against an explosive Oklahoma team here. Instead I’m going to take the over and kick back and watch the points roll in for both teams.
I see tons of possessions and tons of points.
In fact, every Oklahoma game so far this year has gone well over 60 points except for the game against Army. So unless you think Texas is going to run the ball on virtually every play, the over is the easy play here.
Enjoy the ride and cash your check on the over.
Kentucky at Texas A&M the under 51, now 50.5
We’ve won several games by betting on Kentucky, but I don’t like the line here on the road against the Aggies. What do I like instead? The under. I think points will be rare in the SEC this weekend for everyone but Alabama.
Which is why I’m taking the under in this game and several others.
Honestly, I think what most have missed about Kentucky is how stout they are on the offensive and defensive lines. They want to take the air out of their opponent by physically bludgeoning them. And I think they’ll do the same to Texas A&M.
The Aggies win, but it’s close and the under hits with ease.
Alabama -34.5 at Arkansas, now Alabama -35
I don’t need to spend a lot of time breaking down this game because I’ve watched both teams play every game. Here’s what I know to be true: Arkansas is not going to score more than 14 points. Meanwhile Alabama is going to score at least fifty.
50-14 is 36.
So if the best case scenario happens for Arkansas and the worst case scenario happens for Alabama, you still cover.
LSU at Florida the under 44.5, now 43.5
If you’ve noticed I have taken the under in three different SEC games this week and all three unders have moved lower since Monday afternoon when I gave out these plays to the VIPs.
If you want to play a fun SEC parlay, I took the under in LSU-Florida, Auburn-Mississippi State and Kentucky at Texas A&M.
And I think all three are going to hit.
My only concern on what could blow up these unders? Defensive touchdowns. But that’s a risk anytime you gamble. And I’m confident the odds will always be in our favor.
UConn at Memphis -34, now Memphis -35
Last week Memphis killed us, but this week I believe they are going to bounce back because the UConn defense is truly horrific.
How bad is UConn’s defense? They have given up 56, 62, 49 — to Rhode Island! –, 51 and 49.
There is a 100% chance that Memphis is going to score at least fifty in this game. That’s especially the case given how bad they played last week at Tulane.
In fact, I think Memphis goes for sixty.
The Tigers cover, with ease.
Notre Dame -6.5 at Virginia Tech
The more I watch Notre Dame the more confident I am in the Irish defense. Yes, I think Ian Book has been a major improvement at quarterback, but this defense has played pretty lights out all season long.
I know it will be an incredible atmosphere in Blacksburg and that might sustain the Hokies early, but eventually this Notre Dame defense, which is giving up only 18.8 points per game, is going to strangle the Virginia Tech offense.
Leading to the Fighting Irish pulling away late by double digits.
We’re going 10-0! Get rich, kids.
I hope to see some of you tonight at the Vanderbilt Barnes and Noble bookstore on West End.