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Welcome to Week 2. It’s one of the most mystifying weeks of the season because no one really knows who actually took the notes from last week and got better. Teams looked better than they actually were and vice versa. Watch your step, players.
They say there is no such thing as a free money. I have watched this line all week, imagining someone is about to figure out they screwed up but it’s only moved a point. Syracuse is going to be firing Dino Babers before this season and they beat Ohio, who had their coach retire just weeks before the season. Rutgers manhandled Temple and Temple ain’t good, but they murdered them by 47! I had two HAMMER DOWN plays last week (Alabama -18.5 & BYU -6.5 1H) and they worked kindly. This is a HAMMER DOWN PLAY.
On the road again we handle this business. We are fresh off Texas winning an important game against a good team and looking solid on both sides of the ball. It’s a conservative build to this week against future SEC foe Arkansas that struggled mightily against Arkansas and might I add, didn’t cover the 21.5 OR to 10.5 first-half lines. Arkansas will be extremely loud for this one and that could be an effective deterrent for awhile, but I am taking the road team to eventually get there and cover the 7.
ONLY ROAD GAMES… or at least it feels that way. Liberty slept-walked their way to a win over Campbell, only leading the FCS Camels by 13 at the half but slicing-and-dicing them for a 28-0 second half swing. Troy looked great against Southern, putting up 55 on the Jaguars. I think both teams are pretty darn good this season and this is no slight to the Trojans, but I feel so much better about Hugh Freeze spending almost an entire offseason for Troy. I believe in the trusted commodity this early, so the Flames it is.
Notre Dame/Toledo over 55.5 (-104)
This total may be conservative so let’s take advantage of it while we can. Toledo scores against good teams. Toledo scores against bad teams and I cannot tell you what Notre Dame’s defense is right now. Florida State exposed their defense and it’s playcalling as very conservative when leading big and against a good offense, some silly points are going to be scored. Points, points and more points.
Miami -5 (-115) 1ST HALF vs. Appalachian State
This is a pride play guys and gals. Alabama pushed the U around at-will and as much as that embarrassed the Hurricanes, I think it’s influencing the line. I also think last year’s App State team is influencing this number too. App State quietly dispatched and the East Carolina Pirates and covered the number a week ago but they gave up more plays than they ran and surrendered nearly 300 through the air. The Mountaineers will be fine, but the Hurricanes have been tasting their own blood for a full week and if they aren’t hell-bent for skulls, we got more problems.