Outkick Bets: Championship Weekend
Ladies and gents, we’ve made it to Championship Weekend in college football and there is so much on the line. So, so, so much. We have rematches. We have new participants and old foes. We have glory for the conference and stepping stone title chances to go even bigger. Now, what are we waiting for, let’s get to money-making!
GEORGIA VS. ALABAMA, UNDER 49.5
Living in Alabama, I am inundated with the Crimson Tide in a daily basis. I’ve heard just about every reason Alabama does anything. This game is no exception so I just want to get to it already. This game is going to be a classic. I can already feel it. Two powerful defenses will take the field Saturday afternoon with two very different styles of offense. Georgia is suffocating everyone while Alabama has struggled more this season than we are used to. The Tide has won four conference games by a touchdown or less this year (not to mention their loss) and that’s 1 more than they had won by that margin in the previous six years combined. They aren’t the same Alabama but I wouldn’t bet against Nick Saban.
This is just the third time since 2009 (the year Alabama started winning nattys again) that he’s been an underdog and he’s won the other two. Labama has also won 15-straight games in Atlanta and is 6-0 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. I’m playing Alabama +6.5 because of those facts and the fact that this number has been nice and tight at 6.5 all week despite a ton of bets (nearly 80%) coming in on Georgia. The books are comfy and maybe a little too comfy. I’m also playing the under 49.5 because these two defense are fully-loaded with playmakers that have been doing it all year.
Let’s start with the obvious, this is a really fragile spot for Michigan emotionally. Jim Harbaugh and company finally got the Ohio State criticisms out of their mentions. Michigan has also never been in the Big Ten Championship game and in the position to play for the national crown. Just as they get as high as they have ever been, Iowa is waiting and are as physical a team Michigan could want to see. Iowa is great at making people play their style of football. Iowa is also a better defense than Ohio State, ranking at 13th in yards allowed and 10th in points and 1st in takeaways. I’ve liked Michigan’s offense all season and their defense is really good too and I think this is a Wolverines team that can and should win the game, but I think Iowa will make the battle for every inch.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-5.5) VS. BAYLOR
It is so very hard to beat a team twice in one season and I think it’ll happen this week in the Big 12 Championship. I’ve glowed on here, and on Outkick Bets the Show, so often about Oklahoma State’s new-fangled way to win games. It’s been a beautiful change. They and Baylor met two months ago and I rewatched a lot of that game this week and I was struck but one thing: Oklahoma State’s dominance. The score was just 24-14 but that is in no way indicative of the game plan that Mike Gundy implemented. The Cowboys ran 82 plays. They more than doubled the Bears rushing yards (219 to 107). Oklahoma State won the time of possession battle 35-25. On third down, 8/19 and on 4th down they were 2/2 and only punted 5 times compared to Baylor’a 9. The difference was Spencer Sanders and his three interceptions, once inside the Baylor 20-yard line. If Oklahoma State wins, they are going to play for the national title. Give me the Cowboys -5.5. Dominance repeated.