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Outkick Bets: Betting Indiana/Iowa

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The Big Ten is loaded with elite players this season and it’s been a pleasure to watch. If you’ve waited until football was over, you are in for a treat tonight when Indiana travels with Trayce Jackson-Davis to meet Iowa’s Keegan Murray.

Initially I was intrigued by the total of 150.5. It’s pretty high but I can see it making sense. Iowa’s Murray is the nation’s leading scorer, Iowa averages 86.7 points per game (4th in the country), is 11-3-1 on the OVER this season and 8-1-1 to the OVER at home. Smells like a layup? Felt like it for a minute but I did a little more digging.

Indiana has not played a game to reach 150 points since November 30 . That’s eight straight under a very large number. They only allow 60.8 points per game (26th) and are the second best defensive team in the nation in opponent field goal percentage and those opponents are shooting under 30% from beyond the arc.

I went back to watch Keegan Murray’s worst offensive game this season: Iowa State. The Cyclones are one of the most elite defensive teams in the country and they were rabid about their switching and those switches ended with pure Elmer’s glue stickage. They harassed Murray to the heavens and would often lure him to drive to his left only to be secretly waiting with a little baseline help and forcing bad shots from the forward or it would make him give up the rock. As a result, he was held to 9 points on 4-of-17 shooting and just 1-of-6 from three. The blueprint has been downloaded.

Indiana isn’t as good defensively, player-for-player, as Iowa State but they aren’t that for from them either. I think they can keep this thing slower-paced than Iowa wants. Iowa State had the home crowd behind them and that helps a lot because Iowa will be at home too but both teams are capable of winning this game. It’ll be great. But I want the total. Give me the under 150.5 tonight .

Written by Arky Shea

Arky is a decade plus veteran of sports talk radio and a podcaster since before it was cool (2006). He has also won many, many awards for being good at it. As you read this, he is probably working an angle to win $50 on a game and wondering when the Alabama dynasty actually will end.

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