Outkick Bets: Betting Baylor/Texas Tech

Tonight is an elite Big 12 matchup in Lubbock. The defending national champions are in town and are a 2.5-point dog to Texas Tech. Most prognosticators didn’t expect Texas Tech to be this good and then to hold up this well throughout conference play. The Red Raiders are a win tonight away from holding the season sweep and tiebreaker with Baylor for the second spot in the Big 12.

First thing is first, we need to address the injuries. Texas Tech’s Kevin McCullar (ankle) is a game-time decision. He played just 13 minutes on Saturday before getting banged up. A loss of him would mean a loss of a key backcourt player putting up 10.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Baylor just had some heartbreak over the weekend with the loss of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. His 8.4 points and 6.8 rebounds and, more importantly, his length is going to be missed tonight and throughout the rest of the season.

The Red Raiders will be strengthened by their home court. United Supermarkets Arena will be jacked to welcome the 7th ranked Baylor Bears and I can imagine they smell blood as a fan base. Tech has won all fifteen of their home games and are 12-3 ATS in the home gym. In fact, it’s been 53 weeks since the Raiders lost at home. However, Baylor hasn’t been a trash heap on the road. The Bears are 6-2 off the bus and are 5-3 ATS in those games.

The name of tonight’s game will be defense. Can Texas Tech pinch Baylor to the perimeter force ill-advised jump shots? Tech’s opponents score 38.8% of their points from beyond the arc, 347th in the country. They only allow 60.9 points per game (17th in the country) so you can see where the shooting comes from. They also only allow opponents to shoot 31.7% from there but here’s the rub: if Baylor warms up there. They will likely have a smaller lineup more often with Tchatchoua sidelined so if Adam Flagler (2.7 threes made per road game) or LJ Cryer (2.4 made threes per road game) warm up, it could be big night for Baylor. Now is a good time to mention that LJ Cryer is a game-time decision too.

Tonight, I the more I know and trust as of right now is Texas Tech. Baylor could explode tonight. They are like handling decades-old dynamite in LOST but what I believe in this moment, let’s go Texas Tech -2.5.

Written by Arky Shea

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