Outkick Bets: A Pitcher’s Duel in New York, NFL Opener and a Dog in the Desert

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The New York Baseball Yankees would love to wash the taste out of their mouth from their Labor Day beating at the hands of Toronto and they’ll send a beast to the hill to exact some revenge. Gerrit, with one T, Cole will match wits with Steven Matz. The Blue Jays’ lefty has been superb late this summer, only allowing 29 hits since August 1 (six starts). Cole has been magnificent since returning from the COVID-IL on August 16th by allowing just TWO runs in 24.2 innings of work and boasting a smoking 0.80 ERA at home since then and winning all four starts. Cole has also faced the Blue Jays three times this season allowing a total of five runs. Matz hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since August 10th and in his one start against New York this year he allowed just one tiny run in 6.2 innings of work and struck out ten. The Yankees are batting .218 in their last two weeks, good for 26th in MLB and while the Jays bats are hotter (.265/10th) all signs are pointing to a pitching duel on Tuesday, at least early. I am going to white-knuckle this UNDER 4.5 for the First 5 innings (-120). 

Smells good out there. Maybe because IT IS TIME FOR THE NFL SEASON, BABY! Glorious, glorious pro football is returning to us in just two days and the time is nigh to make some big bucks with the padded-ones and let us maximize those dollars with a MEGA FANDUEL OFFER! This week FanDuel is offering 40-1 on ANY NFL moneyline pick. That means ANY winner that you pick goes at 40-1 odds. That’s about as good an offer that the heavens will allow so jump on. Which game should you pick? Why not start with the first one?! The Dallas Cowboys are America’s team as well as the team of this handicapper and the first commandment of sports betting is simple: THOU SHALL NOT BET AGAINST THY TEAM. That being said, it doesn’t mean YOU can’t. The reasons are stacking for why the ‘Boys are dogs here and namely, it’s Dak Prescott; we haven’t seen him play ANY football in 323 days by the time this kicks off on Thursday night. He’s also going to be missing a brick wall; six-time Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin and their best offensive lineman (positive COVID test) will miss the game. The Cowboys’ run game and pass protection run through Martin primarily. Their opponent, the defending world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers return the league’s top rush defense and just happened to be home to the NFL’s 4th-best pass offense in 2020. Dallas allowed the 7th-highest opponent QB rating a season ago and allowed 29.6 points per game, both not-so-good. Tampa Bay was second in scoring a season ago tallying 30.8 per contest, which is actually good. I cannot, by sports betting commandment, bet against my team but I can strongly hint to you that if you want that 40-1 FanDuel Sportsbook bonus, Thursday looks promising. 

Let’s end things in the desert where we notice a tilt between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks. It ain’t sports betting unless you’re tossing cash at a dog of a game. These two teams are a combined 74 games back in their divisions which means one thing: you and I are the only ones watching. Texas will toss a bullpen game starting with the fresh-faced righty Spencer Howard who hasn’t finished the fourth inning since mid-June and sports a hefty 6.56 ERA. Zac Gallen rocks the bump for the D’Backs who have lost 8 of their last 9 and allowed the Mariners (25th in MLB in batting average in the last month) to notch 24 runs in their most recent 3-game series in Phoenix. Gallen will have to go against a lineup that’s batting just .223 away from the Globe this season but in the last month is banging at .258 on the road, good for 10th in the league. Gallen is incredibly consistent and pitches quality starts more often than not, and against mostly really good teams, but his bullpen lets him down notching a 5.33 ERA, that pen also owns the second-worst total in that category (behind Baltimore). I don’t love Howard either for Texas, so let’s keep things platonic and say we are here for the runs. If we add his ERA, plus his bullpen’s propensity for giving up hits (5th most in the AL) to Arizona’s dumpster backend and sprinkle a couple of Gallen freebies, we are due a bunch of men crossing home. I am playing the OVER 8 (-112).

Written by Arky Shea

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