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Meet the Mets! You’ve already met? They’ve been quite the story in 2021 despite dancing around Club .500 right now. They are hot, cold, weird, then hot again as they’ve won eight of their last ten and even though those wins have come against bad teams, we still count them in the standings and tonight is another bad team on the agenda: Miami. The Marlins are very much in the moment; each night is a different team and they are very hard to figure out… challenge accepted. Take their starter, Sandy Alcantara for example. He is more than good, he’s borderline great at times and at home, the 26-year old is a force, allowing just 22 runs which is nearly half of what he’s allowed on the road. He will be going against a Mets offense that has certainly warmed. They rank top the bigs in average, third in OBP and fourth in OPS. So what gives tonight? Alcantara lost his last start to these same Mets just six days ago BUT only lost 4-3 and one of those runs HE BALKED IN in the 7th inning. That was also considered a bad outing for him and we are reverting back to form for Sandy. I like a low-scoring game because his opponent Rich Hill (who has not allowed more than three runs since July 31) will be tossing against a team struggling to hit .217 over the last couple of weeks. That’s not the worst, but only three teams have been worse. Unders aren’t sexy, they just win money. Mets UNDER 7 (-102)
Philadelphia is battling for their playoff lives right now and looking pretty good doing it winning seven of their last ten. Milwaukee leads their division handily and plays ahead by 11 games with just 22 left on the docket. Philly comes in two games off the last wild card’s pace. Tonight’s bout is about two pitchers struggling in their respective recent appearances. Kyle Gibson takes the hill for Philadelphia and in his most recent start against offensively dormant Miami, he got eight runs credited to him for the evening, almost all in the 6th inning. On the opposite side, the Brewers bring in Freddy Peralta to close lower their magic number. Peralta made his first start last week since August 18 and was pelted for four runs in just two innings of work. It was just the second time this season he had allowed more than three runs in an outing. The Phillies bats are hot. In the last two weeks, Philadelphia is tied for second in all of baseball in hits and run, tied for fifth in home runs and sixth in average. I worry about Peralta (who left that August 18th start with shoulder inflammation) isn’t quite up to snuff for this evening’s start. I am rolling with the Phillies moneyline (+138).
Late-night antics in Oakland for our last play. Guys… what is going on with White Sox ace Dallas Keuchel. He has been shelled in six out of his last eight starts, allowing at least 4 runs. At least it’s all been quality competition, right? You tell me: twice to Kansas City, the Cubs, Rays, Twins, and Indians. Indeed, WHAT IS GOING ON? His counterpart is Frankie Montas who is pictured in the dictionary next to ‘quality start’. Since late June, my man hasn’t surrendered more than three runs in a start. Not one time. The juice is tangy on this one with the A’s being a (-178) favorite and honestly, it’s worth it. I will tell you I am personally on it. I mean, history is our greatest predictor of the future. I am on another play though, for plus money even. Oakland -1.5 sits at (+115) on FanDuel and brethren of the Outkick Bets Order, I am on it too. Let’s win, baby!